Greek football 8-10 April

[rcgills]

A Ethniki

8 Apr-17:00	Olympiakos v Aigaleo		1.14	6.00	13.00
9 Apr-17:00	Apollon Kalamarias v Kallithea		1.50	3.50	6.00
9 Apr-17:00	Ionikos v Iraklis		2.37	2.80	2.90
9 Apr-17:00	OFI Crete v Akratitos		1.16	5.50	12.00
9 Apr-17:00	Panathinaikos v Chalkidon		1.16	5.50	12.00
9 Apr-17:00	PAOK Salonika v AEK Athens		2.60	2.80	2.62
9 Apr-17:00	Xanthi v Panionios		1.80	3.00	4.33

Odds from Bet 365

Greece - B Ethniki

Saturday, 08/04/2006 14:00 Thrasivoulos - Prodeftiki Sunday, 09/04/2006 14:30 Et. Asteras - Kalamata 14:30 Panachaiki - Ilysiakos 14:30 Chaidari - Veroia 14:30 Kastoria - Kerkyra 14:30 Olym. Volou - Aris 15:30 Panserraikos - Ergotelis Monday, 10/04/2006 15:00 Paniliakos - Niki Volou

From the TDP odds comparison page.

[censor]

Looks like there are two topics for Greek football this weekend. I will write in this one, despite Komp nice try with Greek language.
The 27th round in A end B Ethniki this weekend.
The derby PAOK - AEK is the more impotrant game of the round and desicive for a Champions League spot. The relegation battle between OFI, Panionios and Levadiakos continue. Some low odds favourites this weekend.
In B Ethniki, many important games in relegation battle, that many teams are involved. The teams that are in the top of the table, are the big favourites for promotion, anyway Thrasyvoulos will try to retain their few chances.
Again, some games blocked by many bookmakers, with teams in relegation danger involved.
The weather is predicted good for the weekend in Greece.
More to come later on,
GL2A

[censor]

For the Saturday game
Olympiakos - Egaleo
Olympiakos are first in the table and almost the Champions. They lost to Iraklis last week away, so they can't afford to drop points. Midweek there is the Cup semifinal at Larisa, so probably they have to save energy for this game. A team with good offensive line and strong at home in front of the fans (12-0-1). They come from a loss 2-0 away vs Iraklis, in a game in heavy pitch due to rainfall, and against an opponent strong at home. In this game Olympiakos will miss influential striker Kostadinou, also Rivaldo and Dani (F) that missed the previous game.
Egaleo are in the middle of the table actually with no targets for the season. They won Larisa 2-0 last round with a good performance, so now they are completely safe from relegation. A team with good defense, as travellers they have record 2-5-6. For this game coach Hatzaras stated thet will give chances to young players and test some reserves. So for this game Egaleo will miss regulars Nikolopoulos (F) and Popof (D). In the line up will be 3 players in the midfield and frontline that usually are not in the starting squad. On the contrary regular Edusei (D) returns in the squad after a long time absence.
This season Egaleo - Olympiakos 1-3
Olympiakos are the big favourites in this game. They have to bounce back from the last loss, they are strong at home, and are a quality team. Egaleo will have some absences mainly in the front line, and also they are not much motivated. Predictions for o/u are difficult as Olympiakos, and Egaleo, have important absents in the front line. Still many Olympiakos games at home are overs. The line in the Asian is high at -1.75, as Olympiakos have an important game midweek for the Cup and probably will save some energy. Still Egaleo have many absents, and the home team would like to please the fans. The odds for the home win are low but fair for the low odds backers. It can be a part of a combo as well.
My bet will be Olympiakos -1.75 in the Asian, 1.85 at Gamebookers, stakes 4/10.

At first glance a combo with Olympiakos, Panathinaikos and OFI home wins looks a good option. I will not write a preview now, as I don't have the last news of the teams, and especially Panathinaikos have some influential players doubtfull. Still it will be a surprise if these teams drop points at home.

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by censor

Looks like there are two topics for Greek football this weekend. I will write in this one, despite Komp nice try with Greek language.

Oops, that'll be my fault, sorry

[censor]

Few words for the B Ethniki game on Saturday
Thrasyvoulos - Proodeftiki
Thrasyvoulos are 4th in the table, 4 points below 3rd Aris. Aris have a difficult game this week away vs Volos so thats a good opportunity for Thrasyvoulos to stay close to the first places and retain their few chances for promotion. Thrasyvoulos come from a loss away 4-0 vs Ergotelis at the derby last week, still they have many complaints from the ref. They are strong at home (9-1-2). In this game they have many absents, they will miss 4 regulars, also their best striker id doubtfull.
Proodeftiki are in the middle of the table actually with no targets for the season. Still they are not completely safe yet. They are in mediocre form and come from a draw at home vs last Paniliakos. As travellers they have record 3-6-4. In this game they will miss 5 regulars, among them is an influential midfielder that missed the previous game as well.
In the first round Proodeftiki - Thrasyvoulos 4-2.
Thrasyvoulos are the favourites in this game. They are strong at home and much motivated. Also Proodeftiki is in mediocre form. However both teams have important absents and that makes predictions difficult as the odds for the home win are lower than expected, at 1.45 max. I will include the home win in a permutation.
GL2A

[nile]

Hmm, why is Xanthi-Panionios game removed from most bookies...
I think Xanthi has every chance to leap over PAOK and secure UEFA cup berth.
Being both level on 40 pts, PAOK has a crucial game vs AEK on Sunday and should they not win it, which is quite likely, then they have another tough game at OFI, where I do not believe they`ll come away with 3pts.
While Xanthi has only one fixture in the remaining 4 that they are not likely to gain 3 points - AEK away.

This means, provided Xanthi plays full strength, then Evens at home vs Panionios look a good shout. Am I missing something

[censor]

Well, nile things are complicated for this game.
Xanthi is almost secured for an Uefa Cup spot already, unless Larisa qualifies in the Cup final. If Olympiakos progress, and thats the more possible, then the 6th place leads to an Uefa Cup spot.
Panionios on the contrary is in relegation danger and need points badly. The teams have good relationships. Panionios can take a positive result from the game. At first glance the draw looks a possible result, but I will come later with a preview.

[Galilee]

Sorry guys I was reading nile's comments and I didn't notice censor coming up with a respone. Anyway here we go again as it is already written.

Actually nile you are missing some small details. The analysis is fair but the strongest possibility right now is that all first 6 spots in the Greek league will be rewarded European cups next year. Greece has 2 teams in the Ch. League and for more spots for the UEFA cup next season despite the recent drop in the UEFA coefficients. One spot for the UEFA cup is decided through the Greek cup but with Olympiakos and AEK being strong favourites for participating in the final (second legs of semi finals coming up), the 6th spot in the Greek League will lead to UEFA cup. It will take a small miracle for the first 6 places to change from what they stand right now (that means Iraklis, Xanthi and PAOK at places 4-6) and imo only Atromitos has a small chance which will be decided tomorrow at the toughest game they've got left against PAO. I believe they need 10 points from their last 4 games to give it go and that should mean they need a draw against PAO. Not easy though.
As censor mentions the game at Xanthi can be a tricky one and the presidents of the two teams do have good relationships. However this one may be a tough call and I am only considering the unders for this one.

P.S. Congrats censor for the draw at Harilaou. I was in Thessaloniki and watched the game and you showed some good spirit against Aris. Alhtough you were a bit lucky when the scoreline was at 2-1 and we needed the points badly, I wish you good luck for the Patra game, which may prove crucial. I believe you deserve a place in the next year's B Ethniki league.

[nile]

Thanks for the write-ups Censor & Galilee

It looks like quite an interesting round in Greece but I`ll stay away from Ethniki A though.

Had 3 pts wagered on X2 at Chaidari-Veroia at 2.22.

[censor]

Well, Nile, the odds for this double chance are good .
Haidari is better team, but Veria motivation can be a crucial factor. I have this bet myself also.
Galilee, I hope this draw will not cost your team promotion. We were much motivated, still this result was a surprise even for me. Aris belongs to A Ethniki, and have to return and, more impotant, to stay there.
Ilysiakos improved a lot after Rocha left the team. Its sounds strange but is true. Now we have a difficult game away vs Panahaiki, but I hope we will win in the last 3 games and stay in the League. Next week we host Olympiakos Volou, a typical do or die game in B Ethniki for both teams.

[censor]

The results
Olympiakos - Egaleo 5-1
In B Ethniki
Thrasyvoulos - Proodeftiki 2-0

Despite their absents in front line, Olympiakos scored 5 goals against unmotivated Egaleo. Another home win for the hosts, that look almost safe champions.

In B Ethniki, important win for Thrasyvoulos that stay close to the first places and retain their few hopes for promotion.

[censor]

For the Sunday games
OFI - Akratitos
OFI are low in the table 1 point above relegation zone. So they are much motivated for the game. They are good at home in front of the fans (4-4-4). They come from an away win vs Kallithea, well against a team ruther unmotivated. A team with good offensive line. In this game they will miss regulars Gonzales (D) that missed the previous game as well, also Kounenakis (M), Belevonis (D) long time absents. Regular Pitsos (D) returns in the squad.
Akratitos are low in the table 7 points below relegation zone. Almost relegated, and the morale is low in the team. They are poor travellers (1-1-11). A team with good defense usually. They come from a loss 0-3 at home vs PAOK, with a mediocre performance. The climate is rather bad and midweek regular Make (M) left the team, some other players also stated their willing to leave the team in the summer. In this game apart from Make, Akratitos will miss regulars Tzimopoulos (M), Sfakianakis (D), also Badas (D) that missed the previous game as well.
This season Akratitos - OFI 1-1
A must win for OFI. They are good at home and much motivated for the game. Akratitos are in mediocre form lately, rather poor travellers, and unmotivated. A possible over given OFI good offensive line. Akratitos are unpredictable right now, however they will play probably open football without stress. Still they have some scoring problems away. The odds for the home win are low but rather fair for the low odds backers. It can be a part of a combo. The line in the Asian at -1.5 is rather high, still OFI will try to clear the win, and probably will cover this handicap.
My bet will be OFI -1.5 in the Asian, 1.75 at Bet 365, stakes 4/10.
Panathinaikos - Atromitos
Panathinaikos are 3rd in the table, 2 points below second AEK. They are much motivated for the game, in their fight for a Champions League spot. They are good at home (11-1-1). A team with good offensive line. They come from a rdaw away vs Xanthi with a good performance. In this game they will miss influential regular Morris (D), also Mantzios (F). On the contrary Darlas (D) returns in the squad, but probably not as a starter.
Atromitos are 7th in the table, 4 points below 6th Xanthi, and have some chances for an Uefa Cup spot. They are motivated for the game, still they have a difficult task against Panathinaikos. They come from a home win 3-2 vs Ionikos and look in good form lately. As travellers they play defensive with counters, and have some fast strikers. In this game they will miss regulars Koutsis (M), Korakakis (M), Mikes (D).
In the first round Atromitos - Panathinaikos 1-0.
Panathinaikos are the favourites in this game. They are better team, good at home, and motivated for the game. Atromitos also are motivated and can hit in counters as Panathinaikos best defender will miss the game. Panathinaikos are in good form lately and want to continue the good performances. A possible over as the home team have good offensive line, and an absent in the defense as well. The line in the Asian at -1.5 is rather high, and this bet can be risky. The odds for the home win are lower than expected, still this is the more possible outcome. It can be a part of a combo.
My bet will be a double, OFI + Panathinaikos 1.20*1.20 = 1.44 at Interwetten, stakes 7/10.

[censor]

Levadiakos - Larisa
The game is blocked by many bookmakers, and at those offered the odds for the home win are dropping. A must win for Levadiakos that are in relegation danger against Larisa that have their mind in the Cup semi final.
Levadiakos are low in the table, 2 points above relegation zone. They need points badly. They come from a loss away vs AEK, still their mind was in this game. A team with good defense, at home they play more offensive football. Their record at home is 6-4-3. Both teams are from the province, and this can help in their relationship. In this game Levadiakos will miss regular Hrisafis (M), on the contrary regulars Andralas (D), Sisic (M) return in the squad.
Larisa are in the middle of the table. They are 5 points behind 6th Xanthi, and have few chances for an Uefa Cup spot. They have the game of the year for them midweek, against Olympiakos for the Cup semifinal. Larisa come from a loss away vs Egaleo with a mediocre performance. In this game coach Donis will rest some regulars for the Cup game. Larisa will miss influential regular Sherban (M), also regulars Vela Junior (M), Bahramis (M), Hloros (F). Regular Galitsios (D) returns in the squad.
In the first round Larisa - Levadiakos 1-0
A must win for Levadiakos. Any other result will mean their relegation. They show fighting spirit at home lately. Larisa are mediocre travellers (0-5-8) and have their mind in the Cup game. They will not risk any injuries or cards, however they are a good team. The odds for the home win are low now as they dropped a lot, still this is the more possible outcome.
My bet will be the home win, 1.60 at Fonbet, stakes 7/10.
Xanthi - Panionios
Another game blocked by many bookmakers. Panionios are in relegation danger and the teams have good relationships. Still Xanthi are unbeaten at home and have not secured an Uefa Cup spot.
Xanthi are 6th in the table, 4 points above 7th Atromitos. The 6th place will lead to an Uefa Cup spot, in case Olympiakos will progress at the Cup final. In case of Larisa qualification, something not very possible, the 5th place will be the last leading to an Uefa Cup spot, and Xanthi have to fight for this place. Xanthi are strong at home without a loss so far in the League. They come from a draw at home vs Panathinaikos. A team with good defense, at home play more offensive football. In this game Xanthi will miss influential regulars Pavio (D), Manso (M), also Anjas (D) that missed the previous game as well.
Panionios are under the relegation zone and need points badly. They come from a home win vs Kalamaria, well in a game vs an unmotivated opponent. Rather mediocre travellers (3-1-8). A team with good offensive line, but with the worst defense in the League. The teams have good relationships, and Panionios best striker Luciano was a player of Xanthi untill the winter transfers. In this game Panionios will miss influential striker Bresca, also regular Magdi (M). Regular Kabadais (F) is doubtfull.
In the first round Panionios - Xanthi 0-2
Xanthi are better team and good at home. Both teams have some absents. Panionios are fully motivated for the game, and can't afford to drop points. Still Xanthi have not secured an Uefa Cup spot, in case Larisa progress in the Cup final. Panionios have bad defense, and this can cost them, but they have good offensive line and Luciano knows his former team. The odds for the draw and the away win are dropping, so the odds in this double chance don't represent much value.
My bet will be Panionios +0.5 in the Asian, 1.73 at Pinnacle, stakes 6/10.

[censor]

Few words for the rest of the games
Kalamaria - Kallithea
Kalamaria are in the middle of the table actually with no targets for the season. They are good at home (6-4-3) and have good offensive line. In this game they will miss regulars Ailton (M), Muzaui (F).
Kallithea are last in the table and almost relegated. They come from a loss at home vs OFI. Rather bad travellers (0-2-10), also they have one of the worst defenses in the League. In this game they will miss regular Koutsospyros (F).
Kalamaria are the favourites in this game. They are good at home and have good offensive line whereas Kallithea have a mediocre defense. The home team had two consecutive losses and have to bounce back. Still both teams are practically unmotivated for the game. The morale is low at Kallithea after the last results. The game is a possible over. The odds for the home win are low and don't represent value, still this is the more possible outcome. My bet will be the home win, 1.60 at 10Bet, stakes 4/10.
PAOK - AEK
The derby of the round, but a difficult game bettingwise. PAOK are strong at home (8-2-2) and in this game the fans will be back after 2 games. They are 5th in the table along with Xanthi. As mentioned, the 6th place will lead to an Uefa Cup spot if Olympiakos progress to the Cup final. PAOK come from an away win vs Akratitos with a good performance. A team with good offensive line. In this game they will miss regulars Fuchini (M), Vaggelis (M).
AEK are second in the table, 2 points above Panathinaikos. They are motivated for the game, in their fight for a Champions League spot. A team with good defense, as travellers have record 8-2-3. A draw will siut them as in case they finish with the same points as Panathinaikos they will qualify for a Champions League spot. They come from a home win 2-0 vs Levadiakos. In this game they will miss regular Vienglinski (F).
A hard call. PAOK are strong at home, and will try to win in front of the fans. AEK are motivated for the game as well. PAOK have good offensive line, still AEK have good defense. Predictions for o/u are difficult. Also predictions in fixed odds are risky. The draw can suit both in the end, so it looks value.
I will include the game in a draw system.
Ionikos - Iraklis
Ionikos are in the middle of the table not far from relegation zone. So they are motivated for the game. They come from a loss away 3-2 vs Atromitos. A team with good midfield. Their record at home is 6-4-3. They have some absents again in this game. They will miss regulars Ofrydopoulos (D), Melabianakis (D), Tsiblidis (M), Kostadinidis (M), that missed the previous game as well. Regular Kotitsas (M) returns in teh squad.
Iraklis are 4th in the table and are ambitious for an Uefa Cup spot. They come from an important home win vs Olympiakos with a good perfromance. They are strong at home but as travellers they have record 2-4-7. A team with good offensive line. In this game they will miss influential midfielder Lagos that missed and the previous game, also regular Errera (F).
A hard call. Ionikos are much motivated in the game, and is a good team. Iraklis is in very good form, but not very good travellers. Both teams have absents. A possible over given both good offensive ines, still Iraklis have some absents in the creative part. 1x looks a good coverage. The draw can suit both in the end, so it looks value.
I will include the draw in a draw system.
My bet will be a permutation, 3 doubles from the draws in the games PAOK - AEK, Ionikos - Iraklis, and Olympiakos Volou - Aris (from B Ethniki), total stakes 4/10.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Great work Censor.

Been on the sick bed all day so haven't had much time for betting myself. Good luck with tomorows bets