J2 round 44 Previews
Avispa Fukuoka-Kyoto Sanga F.C.
Their last meeting was a thrilling encounter in Kyoto, where the home team won 4-3 after being 1-3 down by half-time. Avispa’s Miyazaki scored twice within the first 6 minutes to give the away team an early 2-0 lead. But despite being under, and getting DF Kakuda sent off in the 25th minute, Kyoto were the dominant team and got one back in the 28th minute through Paulinho. Avispa’s brazilian FW Alex made it 1-3 just 3 minutes later, and Avispa now looked certain to win it. But immediately after the goal, DF Ceccoli also received a red-card, meaning they had to play 10 vs 10 for the rest of the match.
Kyoto looked a totally different team after the break, and coach Minobe must have held an inspirational speech as Kyoto dominated the 2nd half from begininning to end. Midway through the half, Kyoto scored 3 quick goals within 7 minutes. Paulinho scored his 2nd, while Andrè and Tiago scored the other. The brazilian imports reallyt showed their worth this match. It was a well-deserved win as Kyoto outshot Avispa 20-7. But neither of the teams defensive play were that impressing, and Kyoto has to play without important DF
Kakuda this match too.Kyoto won the other home match 2-1, while they took an impressive 4-2 victory away. All previous meetings gives us 5-0-0 for Kyoto, and all matches were high-scoring ones. Avispa’s form has been so-so lately, but they got 2-1-0 on their last 3. Their home form is 4-0-2.Avispa still has a slim chance of top 3 this season, but it seems a very hard task. Kyoto’s form has been mixed as well, losing very surprisingly to Meiji University Club in the Emperor’s Cup. Their away form is only 2-2-2. Only 2 wins in their last 6 matches is not worthy a team battling for 1st place, and they dropped to 3rd last round when they drew 2-2 with Shonan. It’s a pretty open match as both teams are not in their greatest form. Kyoto’s perfect record against Avispa gives them a psychological advantage, and they also got more to play for then the home team. Im not sure Kyoto will win it though, and a draw seems just as probable as an away win.
DRAW
Shonan Bellmare-Sagan Tosu
Their last meeting was cut short due to bad weather and stopped after 30 minutes of play. . At that time, Shonan led 1-0, but that goal were ”deleted”, and the game had to start from the beginning again. It was played one month later, which is something Sagan must find themselves happy with, as they took an early lead through MF Takachi in the 16th minute. Sagan looked the better team for most of the match, and it was deserved that they had the lead by half-time. Nagasato equalized for Shonan 20 minutes into the 2nd half though, but as Kim scored his 2nd goal in 2 matches 10 minutes before full-time, Sagan ended up as winners. Sagan outshot Shonan 16-8, and took a nice win. However, Shonan won the 2 other matches pretty convincingly, 4-1 at home and a whopping 5-0 victory away early in the season. All previous meetings gives us 2-0-5 for Shonan, so Sagan holds the edge.
Shonan met 3 of the top 5 teams in their last 3 matches, and managed 1-2-0 against them, scoring 7 goals.Although that is a very good record, it means Shonan probably are too far behind top 3 now to have a realistic chance of promotion. Their home form is decent but not great, with 2-3-1 on last 6. Sagan have only picked up 2 points from their last 4 matches, and have not been that good lately. Their away form is 1-3-2.
Shonan can here field their best possible lineup, while Sahan got some injury problems. With Shonan’s superior form and on paper better team, I think it will be a pretty easy home win for them.
SHONAN WIN
Thespa Kusatsu-Mito Hollyhock
In their last meeting, Mito played Thespa at home, and have to blame rued chances for not picking up the win. Mito were overall the best team, but with poor finishing they failed (as usually) to find the net.. Thespa weren’t much better up front, and the chances they had were all saved by Mito GK Honma, who had a good day at work. Both teams had 9 shots each, but Mito were the superior team in terms of possession and should have bagged this one. Thespa won the 2 other matches this season, 1-0 at home and 3-1 away. All previous meetings gives us 4-2-1 for Thespa, which have won all their home matches against Mito. These matches usually provides very few goals. Thespa’s form is neither good or bad, as they draw most of their matches. On the last 9 they got 1-6-2. Their home form is only 0-4-2 on last 6. Despite playing reasonably good football, Mito has now 6 losses in a row. But to their excuse they’ve met the 5 of the top 7 teams in those matches. Their away form is 1-1-4. Neither of the teams scores alot of goals, and they’ve been pretty bad in defence as well. Thespa got most to play for, as they struggle to keep Tokushima behind them.
DRAW
Tokushima Vortis-Tokyo Verdy 1969
In their last meeting, Tokyo only just managed to beat the visiting Tokushima in a very closely contested game. Tokyo scored in the opening minute through FW Yuzo Funakoshi, and that proved to be the only goal in the match. Apart from the early goal, the Tokushima defence did a pretty good job neautralizing the dangerous Tokyo offence, and created some chances on their own as well. But overall it was a pretty dull match, that didn’t offer that much to the neautral spectator. Both teams had 8 shots each, but 1-0 for Verdy is a fair result. Tokushima won the other match in Tokyo very surprisingly 3-0, but that was in the middle of the Verdy-crisis earlier this season. Verdy won the first match in Tokushima 1-0.
Tokushima’s form is not the best, as they haven’t managed in 5 matches. They got 2-2-0 on their last 4 home matches though. Verdy are along with Cerezo the form team no.1 in the league with 6-2-0 on their last 8 matches. Last round they climbed to 2nd in the table, and looks pretty good now. Their away form is only 2-2-2 though.
You never really know what Tokushima side that will turn up, but with the current form and difference in quality, Verdy are most likely to win this. But Tokushima are capable of upsetting any team in the league, and managing atleast a draw. Verdy played really poor in the Emperor Cup match this weekend too, but they used a mix of regulars and reserve players.
VERDY WIN ( unfortunately...)
Vegalta Sendai-Montedio Yamagata
In their last meeting,Vegalta drew 1-1 away at Montedio, after a late goal by substitute Nagai. The first half was pretty dull, and it didn’t happen much before Montedio scored in the 44th minute to go one-nil up. The game opened up more in the 2nd, as Vegalta had to go forward to chase the equalizing goal. But neither of the teams created that much chances though, and we didn’t see any more goals before in the 87th minute, when the aforementioned Nagai pounced in the equalizer. Vegalta had a chance to steal all points in injury-time, but the gamed ended 1-1, which was a fair result as Montedio had 8 shots to Vegalta’s 7. The other match in Yamagata also ended a draw, 3-3. Vegalta won the first home match pretty easily 2-0.All previous meetings gives us 2-4-1 for Vegalta.
Vegalta’s form has taken a dip the last 3 matches, as they lost 0-1 home against Ehime, and just managed to beat Mito 1-0 away. They got 5-1-1 on their last 7 matches though, so they seem to be on a flow. Their problem lies up front, and they’ve only managed 10 goals in their last 12 matches ( they’ve conceded 10 goals as well,which is pretty good). Their home form isn’t that good though, with 2-2-2 and only 4 scored goals. Before the loss against Avispa last round, Montedio had 4 wins in a row. On the last 6 they got 4-1-1, which is almost a revival for Montedio who looked really poor in the middle of the season. Their away form is 2-2-2, but also Montedio struggles up front with just 4 goals from those matches.
VEGALTA WIN
Cerezo Osaka-Consadole Sapporo
In their last meeting, without really dominating, Consadole won 3-0 home. Although Consadole looked the more dangerous team for most of the game, it wasn’t as one-sided as the score presumes. Actually, the teams had an even amount of shots, with 10 each.
Consadole took an early lead through their young playmaker Fujita, who poked in a rebound from the Cerezo keeper. That was the first real chance of the game. The rest of the half swung both ways, but as neither of the teams managed to score, the score was still 1-0 by half-time.
It didn’t took Consadole long to double that though, as Consadole topscorer Davi also scored from a rebound in the 46th minute. That was the worst possible start for Cerezo, who were chasing an equalizer. As it happened, the Cerezo players seemed to give up, and Consadole took more and more over the play. Their 3rd goal came in the 58th minute, through striker Nishitani, which literally killed the game off.
Cerezo’s coach Levir Culpi, had to sit in the stands due to a suspension. and whether or not that was the cause of the lacklustre performance of Cerezo is hard to say. But they didn’t look as good as they have the last couple of months.
Consadole also won the 2 other matches this season, 1-0 both home and away. That means that Cerezo hasn’t managed to score against Consadole yet.
Cerezo’s form is the best in the league, with 7-1-0 on last 8 matches. Their home form is 5-1-0 with 16 scored goals. Consadole on the other hand, looks really bad now, and have 1-1-5 on last 6. They’ve conceded more than 3 goals in 3 of their latest 5 matches, which is nothing like the Consadole team we saw earlier this season.
So, although Cerezo have never scored or taken points against Consadole, I hold them as a pretty big favourite here. Consadole even lost to a semi-professional team in the cup this weekend, while Cerezo won pretty comfortably 4-2 ( both teams fielded alot of reserve-players though).
CEREZO WIN
source:
http://cerezo-osaka.blogspot.com/
Japan CUP & League2,10 oct.
