Italian football 28 April- 1 May

[rcgills]

30 Apr-15:00	AC Milan v Livorno		1.22	5.50	9.00
30 Apr-15:00	Cagliari v Parma		1.40	3.75	7.00
30 Apr-15:00	Chievo v Roma		2.87	3.20	2.20
30 Apr-15:00	Empoli v Inter Milan		4.00	3.25	1.80
30 Apr-15:00	Lazio v Lecce		1.20	5.50	10.00
30 Apr-15:00	Palermo v Fiorentina		3.00	3.25	2.10
30 Apr-15:00	Reggina v Messina		1.90	3.25	3.50
30 Apr-15:00	Sampdoria v Udinese		3.10	1.66	5.00
30 Apr-15:00	Siena v Juventus		8.00	3.60	1.40
30 Apr-15:00	Treviso v Ascoli		3.75	2.20	2.50

Odds from Bet365

[rcgills]

28 Apr-20:45	Catania v Verona		1.44	3.40	7.50
29 Apr-16:00	Atalanta v Brescia		2.10	2.37	4.50
29 Apr-16:00	Bologna v Albinoleffe		1.80	3.00	4.33
29 Apr-16:00	Cesena v Modena		2.25	2.70	3.25
29 Apr-16:00	Crotone v Triestina		1.66	2.80	6.00
29 Apr-16:00	Mantova v Ternana		1.66	2.80	6.00
29 Apr-16:00	Piacenza v Catanzaro		1.36	3.80	8.00
29 Apr-16:00	Torino v Avellino		1.36	3.80	8.00
29 Apr-16:00	Vicenza v Cremonese		1.25	4.50	10.00
1 May-20:45	Arezzo v Rimini		1.61	3.10	5.50

Odds from Bet365

[skinny]

Hi guys,

any idea how come the odds for

Sampdoria v Udinese

3.10

1.66

5.00

Sampdoria v Udinese

3.10

1.66

5.00

the draw is so low at 1.66. it's far too low to place a decent bet on it. i thought draw odds are around 3.00?? Anyone can enlighten me. Thanks

[rcgills]

I think Italy is quite famous for it at this stage of the season, Skinny, there seem to be a lot of draws. Wouldn't go as far as to accuse it of being fixed, but from what I understand it's not far short.

[daikoku]

I've seen this a fair bit in the last few seasons Skinny. I can't say I'd ever want to get involved at 1.66 though. Have you tried just covering correct scores of 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2?

[nidzika]

I will be on Atalanta. Can not imagine that Brescia can beat Atalatna in Bergamo, maybe they can take one point and nothing more. Atalanta is best team in Serie B, that's sure. In Bergamo they are destroying all opponents. Even one point is good for Atalanta but they will go for win here becouse this is derby game and they will do everything to stop Brescia from promotion. Brescia has some problems with missing players, Di Biagio and Stankevicius are injured. For Atalanta Ventola is doubtful but he will probably be in team. Home win for me.

[kk_ghost]

Originally Posted by nidzika

I will be on Atalanta. Can not imagine that Brescia can beat Atalatna in Bergamo, maybe they can take one point and nothing more. Atalanta is best team in Serie B, that's sure. In Bergamo they are destroying all opponents. Even one point is good for Atalanta but they will go for win here becouse this is derby game and they will do everything to stop Brescia from promotion. Brescia has some problems with missing players, Di Biagio and Stankevicius are injured. For Atalanta Ventola is doubtful but he will probably be in team. Home win for me.

I think odds around 2,15/2,20 on HW have surely some value, but as yourself stated, it's a local derby (both teams are from Lombardia) and there's a big rivalry between these sides so it won't be easy for the hosts getting the whole prize. Di Biagio and Stankevicius are important players, but if I'm not wrong both of them missed the last matches (home win over in-form Cesena). Also I believe the home draw Catania got yesterday night vs Verona is not meaningless for this fixture.
I do expect a tight, nervous game and a tied score is everything but an out of discussion oucome, so if you want to back the hosts I recommend low stakes!

GL

KK_

[thetwotwins]

Originally Posted by daikoku

I've seen this a fair bit in the last few seasons Skinny. I can't say I'd ever want to get involved at 1.66 though. Have you tried just covering correct scores of 0-0, 1-1 and 2-2?

Just tried this on 365 and they are not allowing any c.s betting on this game. They must have taken a few bob on the c.s draws.

[thetwotwins]

However, still some action on Betfair....mmm I see the consensus is for 1-1 then! Maybe unders, if you can find the market.

0 - 0	1.01 £2	6 £34	6.8 £120	7.2 £11	7.4 £76	7.6 £4	Vacant
0 - 1	1.01 £4	19 £9	23 £44	25 £5	26 £53		Vacant
0 - 2	1.01 £4	44 £3	55 £11	60 £2	65 £13		Vacant
0 - 3		1.01 £2	120 £3	140 £21	150 £2		Vacant
1 - 0	1.01 £4	13 £14	15 £15	15.5 £10	16 £51		Vacant
1 - 1			3.8 £138	4.1 £146	13 £2		Vacant
1 - 2	1.01 £2	16.5 £10	17 £14	18.5 £42			Vacant
1 - 3	1.01 £2	48 £3	55 £16	65 £13			Vacant
2 - 0	1.01 £4	24 £7	27 £14	30 £11	32 £42		Vacant
2 - 1		1.01 £2	11 £62	12 £47	12.5 £82		Vacant
2 - 2	8.8 £88	9.4 £85	9.6 £97	10.5 £84	32 £2		Vacant
2 - 3	1.01 £2	46 £3	55 £23	65 £16

[Zozo the Duke]

Siena - Juventus

Pick: Juventus (-1) AH
Stake: 8/10 Odds: 1.74
Bookmaker: Pointbet


Juve played two matches in Siena and won both. Last season 1:3 and previous season 0:3. In this match Juventus is entering after small result crises. They failed to win in their last 7 matches, including CL matches against Arsenal. Juventus drew in their last 5 matches. Juventus is not Juventus if they not take points when they desperately need. Capello is great coach and for sure knows what to do in this kind of situations.

Siena is small team in Italy and they are grouped in teams from which, in the beginning of the season, was expected to finish in low-mid table. Siena is playing mediocre football and they made some problems to some teams, but they are far away from Juventus class. Siena also plays in bad form and from their last win gone 6 matches.

Camoranesi is suspended for Juve, but I don’t think that this absence will be of huge importance. Yes, he is important midfielder, but I think he is replaceable. The main Juve problem in past matches was slow midfield and poor form of the attackers, especially Ibrahimovic. This season, Juve took many points thanks to great aerial ability of their defenders, but I hope today he match will be decided with two or three goals in Siena’s net and that I would not hope Juve defenders to score from set pieces again.

Manager duel: Capello’s team meet De Canio’s team 7 times in history and Capello won 6 of them and only once they split points. I expect Capello’s domination to continue after this match, because he is leading much better team.

I read 2-3 years ago that Siena and Juventus are having very good relations and if we add that Juventus is much better team and having need of 3 points in this match (because Milan is only 3 pts behind them) I think that they will take all advantages and win easily.

Just to add that Juventus have won all mutual matches in recent history.

Previous meetings:

ISA 21-12-2005 Juventus 2 - 0 Siena
ISA 27-02-2005 Juventus 3 - 0 Siena
ISA 23-10-2004 Siena 0 - 3 Juventus
ISA 16-05-2004 Siena 1 - 3 Juventus
ISA 18-01-2004 Juventus 4 - 2 Siena
IC 18-12-2003 Juventus 2 - 1 Siena
IC 25-11-2003 Siena 1 - 2 Juventus

[trickrick]

Sampdoria and Udinese odds for a draw is low as both teams only need a draw for Serie A survival - effectively neither team will be committing too much. I still feel the draw is a tad too low, and I am preferring under 2.5 goals @ 1.79...

[kompressaur]

all the serie a games are live on this dutch tv channel im lead to believe
http://www.talpa.tv/web/show/id=3427...peofpage=53031

[kristobal]

Looks like Cagliari is set to win todays game vs Parma.
Home team haven't won in last 6 home games but they desperatly need points and their last 2 games are away to Udinese and home to Inter. Cagliari is pretty solid at home but Parma has a great away form ( 4 wins out of last 5).
Anyway ,I heard that Parma will field a reserve squad today as they are safe in Serie A and have nothing to play for.Those news are not confirmed but the price for away win is too big (8,00 +),so it can be truth.

Cagliari AH -1 @ 1.97 Betfair (medium stakes)

[Wilco]

Juventus are 3-0 up within the first 10minutes

[kompressaur]

Interesting stuff fellas. good to see you again 2twins sport Goood info there from Kristobal. Thanks and welcome to TDP Kristobal I'll have a read of this in a bit. No i wont as i wont be going out till later. No online accounts etc

While Parma visit the Stadio Sant'Elia already guaranteed Serie A football next term and with little to play for, their hosts Cagliari will be far more motivated knowing that a win may be enough to keep them amongst the elite.
Despite looking doomed earlier in the season, Cagliari are within touching distance of safety. Last weekend's 2-2 draw with Ascoli - a game in which the Sardinians were reduced to nine men - was a demonstration of the spirit that has helped Nedo Sonetti's men move away from the drop zone.
The Sardinians are unbeaten in four and extended their lead over Messina to four points. Now the Rossoblu know that a win - if Messina don't beat Reggina - will be enough to ensure survival. David Suazo remains the Isolani's main asset - the Honduran striker's brace against Ascoli took his tally to 20 for this season.
Despite an awful start to the season - including spells of seven and five games without a win - Mario Beretta will be satisfied with his side's campaign. Six wins from seven games - including Week 31's 1-0 triumph over Inter - has not only ensured that the Ducali stay in Serie A, but has left them only two points short of the sides chasing a UEFA Cup spot.
Cagliari continue to pay the price for their poor disciplinary record - Antonio Langella, Nelson Abeijon, Michele Canini and Francesco Bega are all suspended. Ex-Parma midfielder Alessandro Budel is available again after his ban and Diego Lopez returns from injury.
Beretta continues to manage with an injury-hit squad. Filippo Savi, Marco Delvecchio, ex-Cagliari striker Andrea Pisanu and Colombian Jorge Bolano are all out. However, Giuseppe Cardone may recover and Damiano Ferronetti returns after a lengthy spell on the sidelines. Juve-bound winger Marco Marchionni is suspended. The likely front pairing is Domenico Morfeo and Bernando Corradi - both ex-Cagliari

http://www.channel4.com/sport/footba...6/cag-par.html

Good luck folks.