Italy: 23/24th Feb

[kompressaur]

Serie A

Torino AC - Parma	111	2.04	2.87	3.91	23.02.2008 - 18:00
Reggina - Juventus	112	5.81	3.36	1.63	23.02.2008 - 20:30
Empoli AC - Catania Calcio	109	2.08	2.87	3.78	24.02.2008 - 15:00
Roma AS - Fiorentina	111	1.80	3.12	4.57	24.02.2008 - 15:00
Udinese - Genoa FC	108	1.77	3.11	4.77	24.02.2008 - 15:00
Sampdoria Genoa - Inter Milan	110	3.76	2.98	2.03	24.02.2008 - 15:00
Cagliari - Lazio Roma	108	3.09	2.95	2.32	24.02.2008 - 15:00
Livorno - Napoli	109	2.20	2.86	3.44	24.02.2008 - 15:00
Atalanta Bergamo - Siena	108	1.93	3.00	4.13	24.02.2008 - 15:00
Milan AC - Palermo	107	1.52	3.52	6.59	24.02.2008 - 20:30

Serie B

Cesena - Albinoleffe	87	2.75	2.76	2.61	23.02.2008 - 16:00
Mantova - Bari	86	1.75	2.99	4.94	23.02.2008 - 16:00
Brescia - Bologna	87	2.29	2.77	3.20	23.02.2008 - 16:00
Avellino - Chievo Verona	86	3.64	2.90	2.04	23.02.2008 - 16:00
Treviso - Messina	88	2.14	2.81	3.51	23.02.2008 - 16:00
Lecce - Piacenza	88	1.51	3.32	6.94	23.02.2008 - 16:00
Triestina - Pisa AC	88	2.77	2.74	2.62	23.02.2008 - 16:00
Grosseto - Ravenna	87	1.70	3.05	5.17	23.02.2008 - 16:00
Modena - Rimini	87	2.39	2.76	3.04	23.02.2008 - 16:00
Frosinone - Spezia	87	1.75	2.96	5.06	23.02.2008 - 16:00
Ascoli - Vicenza	87	1.99	2.87	3.87	23.02.2008 - 16:00

[kompressaur]

Just on Betting Advice forum (what the hell's happened over there? They kicked ass 2 years ago) and im reading about Parma missing their main man Cigarini. Actually read it yourself here
http://forum.bettingadvice.com/viewtopic.php?t=74945

Anyone got anything that they want to share with us this week?

[Wet_Sail]

Not been following much Serie A this season, but would have thought Inter are overpriced at greater than Evens away to Samp? Nothing is more dangerous than a wounded animal and there's surely no way Inter will lose 2 in a row...

[kk_ghost]

Awful set of fixtures in SerieA tomorrow and the upcoming midweek we'll have another round.

Usually I avoid any bets involving teams who just have had
an euro-cups shot, so I'm barely going to have any bets at all!

Udinese to defeat Genoa look like the most 'readable' match, as
the hosts are a solid side, coming from a very hard schedule, fighting for an european placement whereas the guests are 'just' well organized newcomers.

I myself believe Udine are closer to the win here, but maybe the game is trickier than it seems as a large part of hosts' "home strenght" comes from victories over bottom sides (plus several disappointing results vs average sides) while Genoa have suffered 3 out of their 4 losses on the road
against opponents like Juve, Inter and Milan.
2 victories and 4 draws complete their away record.

In-form Pepe will serve one game ban for the home side, no particular absences for the guests.

Very tight match is possible here and I can't see any value in odds on the straight HW.
On the other hand I do believe the maximunm Genoa are capable to collect is a draw, so I would back both the straight and the handicap ones giving Udinese -1 goal.

Stanleybet offer 2,91 and 3,63 for such outcomes and I'm on them with low stakes but good confidence of making a small profit!

GL

[szczwanylis]

I would give empoli edge over catania they are in-form and have better team (uefa place last season) also they need to pick some points now as late on they have very tought schedule (ROma JUve Milan) also look at h2h on betexplorer (I cant post links as have too less posts...) and each team won at home so....(better to have 3 points each rule IMo) people tend to go x2 I dont know why to be honest...
also Milan looks as banana skin

I have one rule in serie A(not only here ) :
When 2 teams are chasing each other (To be 1st or to be in Cl qualies spot) what is better for bookies? These teams to win all matches both or one will ain and the other not and so on so on
IMo second scenario
So Palermo improved a little and with Amauri and Maccarone back they can compete at least not to lose more than 2
note that last year Mlan didnt win vs them and last meeting between these two won palermo.
SO Palermo +1 is safe IMo
And if Milan is a banana skin than why Fiora will get anything form Roma?
Imo Roma this is another way will win again x2 seems be popular bet i dont know why. maybe that Roma will play in CL and in Coppa ...but they have wide team to roatate without iteruption on game

Some draws ahead
leans Livorno draw as both misses soem important players but h2h speeks a little on hw so no big bet on draw

Udinese I need to look at it but seems as good one
Lazio Dnb looks solid as well they improved a bit and miss away win like air to bounce a little and Cagliari IMO can hope only in draw

Inter is really not convicting in the league I watched their games since win (till 83 min losing) to Parma at home and was really lucky one and then anything wasnt good so I am chasing their lose maybe this time Sampa is good at home. I just hope Suazo wont get a big chance as I rate him most in-form Inter forward (but Mancini konws better) also some misses id defence of Inter which isnt rock solid anyway

Also Inter have big advantage in the league and more important matches in Coppa and CL so surely they can lose 2 in a row (which I really hope to)

gl

[junior98]

Sport	Football (Italy)
Event	Sampdoria - Inter
Selection	Inter
Strength	10/10
Date	24/02/2008
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 2.36 (Back)
Reasoning	Sampdoria have a great home record and Inter have a great (home and) away record. Sampdoria have won 3 of their last 5 matches, but against teams on the lower half of the table. The team might have impressed some this season, and their currently on their greatest winning streak in Serie A this season, 2 matches in a row!!!! ;-) Inter will be desperate to bounce back after their late defeat in Liverpool. Before that Inter had won 4 matches in a row, including an away victory against Juventus in Coppa Italia. Odds on Inter increasing, but that is probably due to this match being between Inter’s fixtures against Liverpool and Roma. Odds for an unbeaten team to win at 2,36 is high

[kk_ghost]

Don't think it's wise backing Inter with full stakes today..

I do not want to bore anyone here by telling things that already are well known to the punters, but Inter can collect 6 points in the next 2 games even losing the first one.

Samp suffered a single home defeat so far; they come from a victorious derby vs Genoa and are definitely on fire so it seems a hard task to me finding value, especially when it happens they will be 100% (or possibly more) motivated and focused on the match, whereas their opponents surely won't.

Besides Udine another bet I'm currently considering is the straight draw in Cagliari - Lazio match.

Have to say I also find odds on HW a bit tempting as we have a side who desperately needs points, have found a bit of form lately, achieving some positive results, and might take advantage of the home ground.
Not an easy task, though, as Lazio are definitely the better side here.
Also the guests might have recieved some kind of boost by the news about Rocchi who prolonged his staying in the club.

But a look at the stats reveals neither Cagliari nor Lazio (at least on their travels) are capable of winning matches this season.

Cagliari only managed to collect the full prize in 3 games (twice against the same team); Lazio won only once on the road and struggled a lot in their last travel at Empoli.

Finally Lazio might well enjoy a single point as they can (realistically) consider themselves quite safe in Serie A, have, of course, no european placement worries, are still in race for Coppa Italia and will welcome Reggina at 'Olimpico' next midweek.

History between these two is loaded of tied scores at S. Elia
and I believe odds around 2,90 do provide a small value.

[szczwanylis]

empoli
palermo +1
and sampa 1x

others not really good Napoli scored in last min
Udinesa bad joke 3-5
lazio again helped smaller friends ... it looks like they will just stay up and start to play next season
but main bets went in
CU
In wenesday I have one big bet but more to come