Spanish Segunda 3-4 June

[rcgills]

Saturday, 03/06/2006		Best Odds
18:30	Sporting Gihon - R.Ferrol	1.55	3.40	5.50
18:30	Tenerife - Elche	1.95	2.85	3.85
18:30	Xerez - Gimnastic	2.85	2.75	2.45
20:00	Ciudad Murcia - Murcia	1.50	3.40	6.25
Sunday, 04/06/2006		Best Odds
12:00	Numancia - Rec Huelva	3.10	2.75	2.50
18:00	Valladolid - Pol Ejido	2.15	2.70	3.50
18:00	Castellón - Malaga B	1.40	3.65	7.50
18:00	Hercules - Albacete	1.85	3.00	4.00
19:00	Eibar - Levante	6.00	3.45	1.50
19:00	Almeria - Real Madrid B	1.85	2.85	4.35
20:00	Lorca Dep. - Lleida	1.55	3.30	5.75

Those odds taken from TDP Odds Comparison, with the exception of Numancia @ 3.10 which I've just added in myself, as I've just had 4pts on them already with MiApuesta (Sporting Bet). Numancia's season may be over (barring an absolute miracle, as they're 9 adrift of the promotion places with 3 to play, and have a -2 goal difference), while Huelva are in second and still have everything to play for (3 points from their last 3 games should see them promoted), but Numancia have won 9 out of their last 10 home games, and on that basis alone, regardless of any team news, etc., I'm prepared to stick 4pts on them for now, as I find it hard to believe that price will last.

Numancia v Huelva @ 3.10 4pts

[igor5]

rc i am not so sure thet numancia gonna win this game they are apsolute down now ,huelva is maybe relax ,but this should be the game to finish the season ,whith 3 points from this game they are gonna pack for primera , now i got something to think abouth it for couple of days ......

levante away 1.5 ??- bookies learn the leason.....
lorka-leida is game of the weekend both teams are in deep shit ..

[rcgills]

Not sure about that Igor - I think Huelva may just be getting a little bit nervous with the finishing line in sight. A defeat away to Almeria and a 2-2 draw at home to 18th placed Castellon in their last two games.

Once the A/h odds are out, I may go for the 1X too, a draw certainly wouldn't surprise me in this one, but in the mean time I just think 3.10 is far too big a price on a team that's won 9 of its last 10 at home.

Any thoughts on any of the other games? To be honest I can't really see much I fancy at first glance. Castellon should beat Malaga B and pretty much ensure safety, I guess, but that's a pretty short price. The Murcia derby looks one to avoid, wouldn't fancy backing Ciudad de Murcia at those prices.

Maybe Almeria to beat Real Madrid B - Madrid are poor away from home, 6 defeats from their last 7.

Lorca should beat Lleida, but again, don't really fancy them at that price, and the same for Levante at Eibar.

[rcgills]

Have just read that Real Madrid B will be without first choice keeper Cobeño for their last 3 games. It's through choice though, apparently he's in joint third place in the list of best keepers in the division (0.89 goals per game conceded), and wants to finish first in that, so him and the club have come to a joint decision to leave him out of the remaining games. The top 2 are from Sporting and Levante, who both still have something to play for so can't afford to sit out their remaining games. Seems a very strange thing to do if you ask me, not to mention rather selfish, but there you go, they take their Zamora competition (the name of their best keeper competition, presumably in honour of Bobby Zamora, who does more than most strikers to help keepers keep a clean sheet ) very seriously over here in Spain.

Anyway, had been tempted on Almeria before, am even more so now.

Almeria v Real Madrid B @ 2.00 4pts

[charly1]

1.	Gimnástico de Tarragona	39	23	5	11		47	:	35		74
2.	Huelva	39	20	12	7		61	:	30		72
3.	Levante	39	19	12	8		51	:	38		69
4.	Lorca	39	19	10	10		55	:	37		67
5.	Ciudad de Murcia	39	18	11	10		48	:	40		65
6.	Almeria	39	18	7	14		48	:	38		61
7.	Xerez	39	16	12	11		54	:	43		60
8.	Numancia	39	17	9	13		43	:	45		60
9.	Real Madrid B	39	16	7	16		50	:	42		55
10.	Albacete	39	14	10	15		40	:	52		52
11.	Murcia Real	39	13	12	14		39	:	36		51
12.	Valladolid	39	13	12	14		51	:	51		51
13.	Elche FC	39	13	11	15		45	:	52		50
14.	Gijon Sporting	39	11	16	12		37	:	33		49
15.	Ejido	39	14	7	18		42	:	49		49
16.	Tenerife CD	39	13	9	17		50	:	57		48
17.	Hercules	39	12	12	15		36	:	45		48
18.	Castellon CD	39	12	11	16		40	:	47		47
19.	Lleida	39	11	10	18		40	:	48		43
20.	Ferrol	39	7	15	17		42	:	58		36
21.	Málaga FC B	39	7	11	21		33	:	58		32
22.	Eibar	39	5	15	19		25	:	43		30

The most important matches of this round are:
Eibar-Levante, Lorca-Lleida, both for direct promotion to Primera, and
Castellon - Malaga B, where hosts are fighting for survival.

I'll take all three bolded clubs, in despite of low prices offered for their victories.

On June 11 th, in the next round, those promotion race could be ended for one team.
Levante and Llorca will decide that in their mutual match.
Untill that, both teams must collect 3 points each in this round.
I have no any doubts that Levante will win, and for me it's 10/10 bet.

Lorca manage to win in the last round , in the last minutes of the match...but they won.That's the fact.
This time, it may looks that their job is even harder, because they're hosting Llorca, which needs points desparately?
But, let's just take looka at the schedule:
Castellon is playing at 1800 h, and it means when Lorca's match starts....they'll already know the result of Castellon game.
If Castellon manage to win, the gap between them and Lorca could be whole 7 points, and it certanly means that Lorca must win their 3 next matches in order to stay in league.
Just to mention, again, that Lorca is playing vs. Levante in the last round.
So I think, and they think for sure, that their chances to stay in Segunda are pretty low, not to say that mission is already impossible.

[rcgills]

Just a note of warning on that one, Charly - Castellon are attempting to get the kick-off time of their game changed to 20h00, the same time as Lorca v Lleida, as they don't want Lleida to have any kind of unfair advantage. Nothing is decided yet, but it may well be that they will both be kicking off at the same time.

[charly1]

Thanks!

[igor5]

i think this is maybe the worst round in secunda this year ,odds are loooooow ,just 4-5 teams are playing for something ,somebody is celebrating,somebody is on vacation,goalkepers do not playing anymore(thank rc for great info) just to have a perfect record !?!?!?!
i realy i am not interesting on have some money on this games maybe something for fun ,but nothing serious.

eibar-levante
i know thet levante is big favorite in this game but h2h is bad ,levante is without a win at eibar odds is going tooo much down so i realy don`t think so thet is worth going for this game ..............

Levante Eibar 0:0 08.01.2006
Levante Eibar 0:1 31.08.2005
Eibar Levante 2:0 06.03.2004
Levante Eibar 1:0 05.10.2003
Eibar Levante 1:1 02.03.2003
Levante Eibar 3:1 28.09.2002
Levante Eibar 0:0 31.03.2002
Eibar Levante 7:0 07.11.2001
Levante Eibar 0:0 03.03.2001
Eibar Levante 0:0 07.10.2000
Levante Eibar 0:0 27.02.2000
Eibar Levante 4:2 03.10.1999

tenerife-elche
i realy like this game i think guys from the iceland gonna finnish the job this week 3 more point and job is done they are solid at home ground 9-4-6 and elche is realy bad away from home (i hate them for thet draw last round with ciudad ,thet shity result 0-0 cost me some money ....)there is some chanches around the style of playing of this team ,they do not recive a goal in last 3 rounds!!!!!!!,but this time they are going down
odds for this game is going down again

i realy don`t think thet numancia gonna win in sunday ,i think thet guys on numancia is on vacation ,huelva is capable of playing for a draw so maybe small bet on draw....

after reading the news abouth real b goalkeaper ,i think thet almeria gonna be able of getting couple of goals in to the net of the real b ,but solgado is something thet could make some upset ,if i am not wrong he is going for best striker title(pincito??!-help rc.... i am not so god in spanish)

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by igor5

if i am not wrong he is going for best striker title(pincito??!-help rc.... i am not so god in spanish)

That'll be the Pichichi, Igor

[rcgills]

Make of all these what you will, but here are some of this week's rumours of corruption flying around Spain (taken from As):

- Manolo (Eibar) says that Levante offered Eibar money to win their game against Lorca last week (fat lot of good it did them, as they lost 1-0). His manager has denied it.

- The press in Alicante are talking of a possible conspiracy between Lleida and Levante. If Lleida beat Lorca on Sunday, not only will they get a win bonus from Levante, but Levante would then also agree to lose their final game of the season, away to Lleida, as long as they've already secured promotion (which would be very likely if Lorca were to lose on Sunday). Can't see much truth in that one to be honest - they can offer Lleida hundreds of millions of pounds, the fact is they've still got very little chance of winning in Lorca.

- The Lorca president has apologised to Levante and Valladolid for last week's accusations. Levante had demanded an official retraction of the remarks or they'd take him to court. He sent a reply with a sarcastic comment saying something along the lines of having seen the replay of the game in question, he now realises that his remarks were totally unjustified.

Other news I've just seen, Lopez Caro has left Real Madrid to take over as the new manager of Racing Santander.

Charly, the Castellon game has been moved to 20h00 now.

And possibly the best news I've seen yet, and even more reason to back Almeria, Roberto Soldado is suspended for Real Madrid B on Sunday.

Full list of suspensions:

Miguel	Castellón	Un partido de sanción por doble amonestación y consiguiente expulsión (volverá en la 41ª jornada)
Rodri	Castellón	Dos partidos de sanción en aplicación del artículo 137 h) de los Estatutos Federativos, con el agravante de reincidencia (volverá en la 42ª jornada)
Alegre	Ciudad Murcia	Un partido de sanción por acumulación de amonestaciones (volverá en la 41ª jornada)
Raúl Medina	Ciudad Murcia	Un partido de sanción por acumulación de amonestaciones (volverá en la 41ª jornada)
Vucko	Ejido	Un partido de sanción en aplicación del artículo 137 h) de los Estatutos Federativos (volverá en la 41ª jornada)
Katxorro	Elche	Un partido de sanción por acumulación de amonestaciones (volverá en la 41ª jornada)
Pere Martí	Elche	Un partido de sanción por acumulación de amonestaciones (volverá en la 41ª jornada)
Courtois	Levante	Cinco partidos de sanción: cuatro en aplicación del artículo 122 f. y uno por el 137 c. de los Estatutos Federativos (volverá en la 41ª jornada)
Unai	Lleida	Un partido de sanción por doble amonestación y consiguiente expulsión (volverá en la 41ª jornada)
Xavi Moro	Lorca	Un partido de sanción por acumulación de amonestaciones (volverá en la 41ª jornada)
Usero	Málaga B	Un partido de sanción por acumulación de amonestaciones (volverá en la 41ª jornada)
Pignol	Murcia	Un partido de sanción por acumulación de amonestaciones (volverá en la 41ª jornada)
Agus	R. Madrid Castilla	Un partido de sanción por acumulación de amonestaciones (volverá en la 41ª jornada)
Soldado	R. Madrid Castilla	Un partido de sanción por acumulación de amonestaciones (volverá en la 41ª jornada)
Cámara	Sporting	Un partido de sanción por acumulación de amonestaciones (volverá en la 41ª jornada)
Curbelo	Valladolid	Un partido de sanción por acumulación de amonestaciones (volverá en la 41ª jornada)

[igor5]

"Roberto Soldado is suspended"
after reading this we have to go with almeria
thanks rc

[rcgills]

I'd certainly say so Igor. Have just added another 3pts onto them myself, so 7pts in total. 2.00 still available with quite a few bookies.

[Silke]

cant see why you guys are so keen on Almeria. they are as good as out of the promotion race after they lost away to malaga b.

are you guys not worried that they have little motivation left ?

[rcgills]

Originally Posted by Silke

cant see why you guys are so keen on Almeria. they are as good as out of the promotion race after they lost away to malaga b.

are you guys not worried that they have little motivation left ?

I think the key there is the words "as good as", Silke. OK, they're 8 points adrift with 3 to play, but there's still a tiny outside chance, and on that basis surely they've got to go for it. They'd end up absolutely kicking themselves if Levante only take one more point from their last three games.

And as I've already mentioned, Madrid are poor away from home, 6 defeats from their last 7, and without their first choice keeper and their top scorer. All of that plus Almeria's 14-1-4 home record means I think they're a decent bet at that price.

[Wilco]

what does everyone think of the Xerez - Gimnástic game?