German football 22-24 September

[rcgills]

22 Sep 20:30	Borussia M'gladbach v Borussia Dortmund		2.40	3.25	2.80
23 Sep 15:30	Bayern Munich v Alemania Aachen		1.22	5.50	13.00
23 Sep 15:30	Hamburg v Werder Bremen		2.60	3.25	2.60
23 Sep 15:30	Hannover 96 v Bayer Leverkusen		2.50	3.25	2.70
23 Sep 15:30	Mainz v Hertha Berlin		2.37	3.20	2.90
23 Sep 15:30	Schalke v Wolfsburg		1.40	4.33	7.50
23 Sep 15:30	VfB Stuttgart v Eintracht Frankfurt		1.83	3.30	4.33
24 Sep 17:00	Bochum v Arminia Bielefeld		2.10	3.25	3.40
24 Sep 17:00	Cottbus v Nurnberg		2.40	3.25	2.80

22 Sep 18:00	Eintracht Braunschweig v Karlsruhe		2.70	3.20	2.30
22 Sep 18:00	Kaiserslautern v TuS Koblenz		1.53	3.75	5.00
22 Sep 18:00	SC Freiburg v Greuther Furth		1.90	3.25	3.50
24 Sep 14:00	Augsburg v Hansa Rostock		2.50	3.20	2.50
24 Sep 14:00	Carl Zeiss Jena v Paderborn		2.00	3.25	3.25
24 Sep 14:00	Kickers Offenbach v Unterhaching		2.10	3.10	3.10
24 Sep 14:00	MSV Duisburg v 1860 Munich		1.90	3.25	3.50
24 Sep 14:00	W Burghausen v Erzgebirge Aue		2.10	3.25	3.00

Odds from Bet365. The lower leagues aren't up yet on Bet365, I'll try to add them if I remember, if not feel free to add them up Johnny (or anyone else)

[daikoku]

Any Germans with an opinion on the Braunshweig v Karlsruher game? I'm interested in taking Karlsruher at what looks like quite nice odds.

Karlsruher should be field the same side that drew 3-3 against Duisburg. They are still missing Sanibal Orahovac (forward- hasn't played) and Czech player Jiri Kaufmann (forward - played for 4 minutes in the 1st game).

Braunschweig have doubts over team captain Daniel Graf (midfield) who has played in every game this season. They still miss midfielder Patrick Bick who has only played in the opening game of the season.

Braunshweig have only managed to score 1 goal in 4 matches and have still to win a match. Karlsruher don't seem to be missing their injured forwards too much as they sit at the top of the table and managed 10 goals in 4 games.

My only concern was looking at last season's statisitcs. Braunschweig were very strong at home last season ...

P17 W9 D3 L5 GF25 : GA12

Karlsruher were pretty poor away...

P17 W3 D6 L8 GF16 : GA26

So can any Germans give me an opinion? Are Braunshweig a different team from last year or have they just had a poor start and are underperforming?

[johnnybgood]

Hi Daikoku,

I am not that deep in second, but what I know is that Braunschweig is always extrem strong at home. Not just last year, in whole their club history back to the BL times. They have in opening rounds problems to realise the chances and they had plenty of them. According to the papers they havnt played bad football.
On the other side Karlsruhe is flying high at the moment and atmosphere in and around club is perfect.

I hope this help a bit. I am not betting this year on second but if I would this would be no bet for me.

[daikoku]

That's good enough for me Johnny thanks for the information . I'll just leave this one alone.

[daikoku]

Just read that Braunschweig definitely miss captain Daniel Graf tonight. I can't resist and have a small amount on Karslruhe now.

[mord]

i have -0,25 @1,94 Betfair

[Zozo the Duke]

Bayern München – Aachen

Pick: Bayern M (-1.5)
Odds: 1.83 @ PointBet
Stake: 4/10

Bayern Munchen lost from Bielefeld in previuos round despite the the lead iearly in the match. They let the Bielefeld to recover and to win at the end. This result was very bad for great team like Bayern M. and they will try to get back on winning tracks against Aachen, who is not dangerous opponent, I think.

Huge blow for Bayern will be the absence of Hargreaves who is injured. He was the leader in the midfield and he was their best player so far this season. Despite his absence, Bayern still has very strong line up and in the midfield they have many quality players to make the absence of Hargreaves minor. There are van Bommel who is playing in great form, Schwienstiger is here who can play everywhere in the midfield, De Michelis who can play well as defensive midfielder and Santa Cruz who can play as offensive midfielder. These players will control the midfield and I think that there are few teams in Germany that can compare with these players and Aachen is not one of them.

Maggat was very angry at his players after the loss in Bielefeld and he said that only victory on this match can back the things where they belong. I believe that Bayern can beat Aachen even with reserves, and especially at home, I believe in big home win.



Stuttgart – Frankfurt

Pick: Over 2.5 goals @ BetFair
Odds: 1.88
Stake: 3/10

Stuttgart managed to recover 2:0 loss into 2:3 win at Bremen. That is great result for Stuttgart team and their self confidence is on very high level. I believe that they learned the lesson that attacking football is bringing them results and they will continue playing offensively in the next matches.

Stuttgart played 4 matches so far and all of them ended with 3 or more goals, but Frankfurt from 4 league matches, only one was with more that 3 goals.

Frankfurt is playing in great form lately. They trashed Brondby in UEFA Cup with 4:0 and they will have easy 2 nd leg. After that match they beat Leverkusen 3:1 and their form is on uptrend.

Two teams with very high self confidence playing each other and playing attacking minded football, which can guarantee goals. I believe that over 2.5 goals for 1.80 and over is representing good value and I will take it.

[johnnybgood]

Hi duke and good luck wit your tips.

I have no fancies in Bundesliga today. Very hard set of ficturs. I will be on Bochum tomorrow and will post more later when I have more time.

Today I am again on Hoffenheim in regio south. They are away to Ingolstadt, which are having some nice results lately. They have won 4 gams this season, but against mediocore sides. Two games against better teams they have lost at home. I think they are bit overrated and that Hoffenh. will take all 3 points at realy nice odds. Guests have draw their last game after winning 3 games in a raw. But according to press and web sites they have played the best game of the season. That realy shows for me that they are with each game better. Copado have fitted extremly well in this team. There are more good news around Hoffenheim.
In their town they have big problems becomming the place to build the new stadium. The city new that they are sitting on money and have tried to sell the place at extremly high costs and to solve some comunal issues at same time. Last thursday Hoffenheim anounced that they have get permition to build stadium at other city. They will invest 40 mio for the new place and it is supose to be finished in two years. This place will fit the Bundesliga standards where they expect to come in the next 3 years.
So I am on Hoffenheim at juicy 2,65 with 8 stakes.

[ONEDUNME]

Can't see a price that good on any of the bookies I have Jonny but I'm on at 2.4

[johnnybgood]

Yeah

many bookies price it between 2,4-2,45.

Spportingodds have it at 2,70:

[ONEDUNME]

Thanks mate but too late, I'm already on.

[rcgills]

Cheers Johnny and Zozo

I've got to admit I know absolutely nothing about this other than purely looking at the stats, but Ingolstadt do seem to be in impressive form, with 3 wins in a row, including away to the teams in 3rd (Wehen Taunusstein) and 7th (Hessen Kassel). Ingolstadt won 5-0 at Hessen, what happened in that game? Did Hessen have injury problems, players sent off, etc.? Or did Ingolstadt just outclass them? They do seem to struggle at home, mind, like you say, one win and 3 defeats from their 4 games so far.

[johnnybgood]

Cheers RC
this table need huge surgery and in few months will have totaly diff. look. LAst game Ingolstadt have surprise Hessen with 2 early counter goals and amateour display of Hessens defense line. Hessen started season well with high fighting spirit and after few wins they let themselfs to go easy in the game. After being 2 down whole team fall apart. Imo this game shows not real strenght of the Ingolstadt. Another wins I can only say they had right oponent at the right time.
For this game their maindefensive man is missing and they dont have real replacment. So their defense will be much more shaky then in previous games. Their coach also said that he will be very happy if they get the draw from this game.
In my book Hoffenheim is class better and at this odds for me a must bet.

[rcgills]

OK, cheers Johnny. Going to think about this one a bit more, got 2 hours until kick off to decide. Good luck with it anyway

[johnnybgood]

Thanks RC,
I am on bad run lately, and its not advicable to follow my selection. But I hope that this run will end this week.

I am realy enjoying your secunda picks, as to me it seems that you cant fail.