Italian Midweek - 20/21st Sept

[kompressaur]

Wed 21-Sep-05
19:30 Ascoli 11/8 Siena 21/10 Draw 9/5
19:30 Empoli 7/5 Cagliari 2/1 Draw 15/8
19:30 Lecce 17/10 Fiorentina 8/5 Draw 15/8
19:30 Messina 5/4 Livorno 11/5 Draw 15/8
19:30 Palermo 1/2 Reggina 11/2 Draw 13/5
19:30 Roma 4/7 Parma 5/1 Draw 12/5
19:30 Treviso (N) 12/5 Sampdoria (N) 11/10 Draw 2/1
19:30 Milan 2/5 Lazio 15/2 Draw 3/1
19:30 Chievo 7/2 Inter Milan 5/6 Draw 11/5
19:30 Udinese 11/4 Juventus 21/20 Draw 21/10
odds from sportingodds

Italy Serie B
20 Sep-19:30 Albino Leffe v Modena 9/5 8/5 8/5
20 Sep-19:30 Avellino v Bari 7/5 17/10 2/1
20 Sep-19:30 Bologna v Piacenza 8/11 15/8 4/1
20 Sep-19:30 Brescia v Arezzo 4/6 15/8 9/2
20 Sep-19:30 Catania v Atalanta 7/5 17/10 2/1
20 Sep-19:30 Catanzaro v Pescara 11/10 9/5 12/5
20 Sep-19:30 Ternana v Cesena 4/5 15/8 7/2
20 Sep-19:30 Torino v Crotone 2/5 5/2 7/1
20 Sep-19:30 Vicenza v Mantova 11/8 15/8 9/5
21 Sep-19:30 Cremonese v Triestina 6/5 9/5 11/5
21 Sep-19:30 Rimini v Verona 11/10 9/5 12/5

[kompressaur]

added the Serie B.

[kk_ghost]

Three matches in Serie A have caught my attention:

Palermo at home vs Reggina look a crystal clear home victory. The team from Sicilia is 'on fire' and should not have any problem in defeating the 'amaranto'. So far Palermo have been awesome: excellent, convincing performances. Del Neri is a fine manager and the players are properly learning his teachments (especially Terlizzi ).

Milan already are in a must win situation. Dropping further points would mean bad troubles: Juventus and Inter would get a very large advantage. I don't know if it is advisabile trusting a still unconvincing side. Lazio on the other hand are making their job.. Could this be enough to make an upset at S. Siro?
Not easy to say.. Milan usually do well vs the team from Roma; the home ground advantage and the strong motivation should bring them the 3 pts. If Lazio just aim to a quiet permanence in Serie A they're not expected to collect points out of such games. Odds on HW are really short, though.

Finally Roma should come back to the victory at home vs Parma. The emiliani got their first victory few days ago by defeating a poor Empoli side. The absence of Gilardino will have a huge influence in Parma's season and Roma are very hungry after a disappointing year. Still I have to read yesterday's match report and check for the teams news.

In Serie B I think Verona may be overpriced away at the newly promoted Rimini. Hellas are showing their best on the road.. This match deserves a closer look IMHO. More thoughts later or tomorrow.

KK_

[kk_ghost]

Stanleybet is offering over 2,5 in Catanzaro - Pescara at evens.

I know such kind of bet is always tricky in a typical 'under' league like Serie B, but I think we have some value here.

Both Catanzaro and Pescara are strong relegation candidates. The team from Calabria managed to collect a single point so far (home draw vs Vicenza in the first game), but they had to play 3 away matches on the road. Pescara come from the nice victory over Cremonese last round; in the previous one they got a precious point away at Ternana.

When two low-table team meet each other it may happen the fear of losing prevails, but it's too early for such 'scenario', so I believe we'll see a good match between two motivated teams. The hosts will fight to death to get their first win; the guests will try and continue their positive streak, with the help of a good morale.

Add to this Catanzaro can count on two good strikers like Corona and Mirtaj (who did not play in last round since at Bentegodi Catanzaro fielded a very covered squad 4-4-1-1); Pescara on the other hand have mainly strenghtened their roster with some forwards (Gautieri etc.) and so far all the matches they played ended with more than 2 goals.

1,90/1,95 would be a fair price; 2,00 is slightly valuable (but I'm sure you could find even better odds) and I think I'll take it with medium/low stakes.

Tomorrow I'll add some team news.

KK_

[crowie]

Palermo does indeed look set for another good season KK, even getting wins away from home alread which is impressive considering they only got 3 away all last season. And Reggina are leaking goals already, 9 in 3 games.

Any thoughts on Udinese at home to Juve KK? 4.30 at Betfair or with the +0.5 AH? Udinese seemed tough to beat at home last season although they did lose 1-0 to Juve.

[Peter Orchard]

Fwiw, I watched large parts of Lazio - Treviso on Sunday and was impressed by the part di Canio played. He supplied the passes to both game breaking goals and I had to wonder at times what the rest of his buddies were contributing.
The key to beating Lazio seems to be quite simple.

[kk_ghost]

Originally Posted by crowie

Palermo does indeed look set for another good season KK, even getting wins away from home alread which is impressive considering they only got 3 away all last season. And Reggina are leaking goals already, 9 in 3 games.

Any thoughts on Udinese at home to Juve KK? 4.30 at Betfair or with the +0.5 AH? Udinese seemed tough to beat at home last season although they did lose 1-0 to Juve.

Yesterday I was talking to a friend of mine and he strongly believe Juve won't lose too many points in this start of the season. Have to say I agree with him: the bianconeri look at least a class above any other team in Serie A by now.
Juventus may have not convinced you in the home game vs Ascoli. The guests played really well and forced Juventus to an almost even match. I just think Juve can afford not to perform at 100% in the round after CL and before the midweek visit to Friuli, especially when they entertain a side like Ascoli at Delle Alpi. Keep in mind Udinese are not Chievo, Empoli, Club Brugge or Ascoli themselves so this is the first seasonal real test for Juventus. Also the game is very important because Milan alredy dropped precious points. Finally Juventus have an excellent tradition away at Udinese.

On the other hand Udinese are expected to compete for the title of 4th italian top team (and I don't mean the place in the table only ). Roma, Parma and Lazio, due to different reasons, are no longer the strong teams they were few years ago; Udinese improved season after season and their presence in CL group stage (where they started by thrashing Panathinaikos at home) is an impressive achievement. Now the task is keeping this level in the current season and in the next future. To do this Udinese have to face the various Inter, Milan, Juve, just like they were at equal strenght.

I'll skip this one, but if you want to go against Juve my advice is the straight draw or a well covered asian handicap.

KK_

[crowie]

Thanks for the response KK.

[prsljen31]

Livorno vs Roma was the most boring game of year.......No shots,no chances,absolutely nothing......when Roma beat Reggina in first round 0-3 I thought that Roma is capable to be title contender or just thought that they can play good football again after some terible years,but vs Udinese and Livorno they produced zero,nill........Just to say that morale is really low,Montella in maybe worst shape ever,Mancini just the dumbest player I seen on the pitch for long time,midfielders without good passes.....Totti.....no way to impress my feelings on him with my lousy English(dumb and dumber had more IQ than 5 Totti`s)........I just feel sorry for coach Spaletti `cause he have to work with this morons.........

[SULAMANI]

I AM JUST INFORMING YOU MATES THAT HUGE AMOUNTS ARE BEING ALREADY PLACED ON FIORENTINA AWAY TO LECCE @ 2.25...

LET US KNOW IF SOMETHING FIXED IS ON THIS GAME... ITALIANO ? ANYONE ?

[kk_ghost]

Originally Posted by SULAMANI

I AM JUST INFORMING YOU MATES THAT HUGE AMOUNTS ARE BEING ALREADY PLACED ON FIORENTINA AWAY TO LECCE @ 2.25...

LET US KNOW IF SOMETHING FIXED IS ON THIS GAME... ITALIANO ? ANYONE ?

Maybe lots of people are on the guests just because they look very strong this season and such odds are surely valuable since Lecce have been quite disappointing so far. Defeats apart they could not beat Ascoli at home, not even when the guests were 1 man down (and they were for the whole 2nd half).

Fiorentina are 'on fire' and Toni is hungry for more goals. AW definitely deserves a medium stake bet and over 2,5 looks very possible as well.

I also would try again Fiore to lead at HT

KK_

[bastexhiu]

Juve have an exellent relationship with Udinese (they had got always what nedded in Udine) 9/10
Inter 9/10 can beat easy Chievo (its better now that Adriano will not play)
Milan tourning the corner 9/10

all single
and a treble 6/10

[kk_ghost]

Originally Posted by bastexhiu

Juve have an exellent relationship with Udinese (they had got always what nedded in Udine) 9/10
Inter 9/10 can beat easy Chievo (its better now that Adriano will not play)
Milan tourning the corner 9/10

all single
and a treble 6/10

Agree about Milan. I already put some words down last days. Now I add I finally took them in a small double with Roma (Parma without some key - players, especially Morfeo). I decided to skip Palermo. I still believe the home win is very likely but I've few concerns. Palermo could find themselves satisfied with the latest achievements and the tiredness and maybe a lack of concentration could make a bad joke. Also last year a couple of teams (in both Serie A and B) that started the season with 3 defeats in a row (Sampdoria, Verona etc.), managed to get some pts in the 4th round

Have to say I'm starting and fancy Juve as well. The forward Iaquinta has been excluded from the roster because he did not want to sign a new contract with Udinese. Huge blow itself and for morale in the team.

I would not touch Inter at short odds currently offered. Chievo usually do well against neroazzurri since Campedelli, owner of the club, is a great Inter's fan and his players give more than the maximum

Samp to do the job away at Treviso? The hosts will have to play all the home matches at Padova (another city in Veneto), so no home ground advantage. Treviso will miss their first goalkeeper (red card for him in the match vs Lazio).
If you don't fear a scoreless draw some units on AW are definitely worth a try.

In Serie B I do confirm Verona are a bit overpriced. So far they've shown the best on the road and after Cremonese the newly promoted Rimini, that usaully struggle in the first half of the games (see Albinoleffe and Catanzaro), could be their next victim.
Guests at full strenght: the forward Iunco has recovered from the injury and is ready for the match (although he could start from the bench). For the rest, as I already wrote, the new players are starting to gel with the rest of the team, especially Sforzini and Rantier are showing some quality. Adailton is on fire and finally the morale is slowly getting better (but still there are black clouds ahead ).

A general advice: do not stake too much today. The first midweek round could be tricky

KK_

[kk_ghost]

Some stuff from Goal.com

Roma - Parma:

Roma had a horrid season last year and faced relegation in the face. 4 coaches, a captain who was suspended for long periods of time, a team with no discipline and vision, a team that faced fines from FIFA and was banned from the transfer market and a team in financial crisis all in all plagued their season and summer. Yes, the team still has money problems but, they kept Cassano, Totti, Panucci, Mancini and acquired Nonda, Taddei and Kuffour. Mexes and Chivu still cannot play, but when they recover and are allowed to play again Roma does have the team to shine. Their new coach Spalletti has imposed his philosophy and so far it has worked. Yes they lost vs. Udinese, but they recovered in UEFA Cup competition winning 5-1 and they sit with the same points as Udinese. This could be a good year for Roma and the team of Cesar could march to a UEFA Cup and 4th spot and if Cassano, Totti and Spaletti do well expect them to leave for a new adventure. Cassano, Spaletti perhaps to Juve as Elkan wants Cassano and Juve would like a good coach to replace Capello when he eventually leaves. Totti, could wear the Madrid shirt, or perhaps the Milan jersey.
Parma suffered too the same fate as Roma did last year. Annus Horribulus. A horrible year. They had to contest a playoff vs. Bologna to survive in Serie A. They had a young team and a young coach, but the coach could not get it together and the caretaker coach barely saved them. The team was young and with the inexperience, it nearly proved deadly. However, in the summer the problems mounted as Gilardini was let go to Milan, Frey went to Fiorentina and the Swiss takeover failed forcing Parma to sell their jewels. Finally a man came to the rescue in Lorenzo Sanz, the former President of Real Madrid as his investment company acquired Parma. He was in prolonged negotiation, however due to the limbo the jewels still left Parma. However, Parma has a knack to create talent. Sanz stated that he would make this ream into a contender and he can claim it as he won a Primera, 2 Champions Leagues as President of Real Madrid and has a good relationship with Capello. Yes, Parma did not get a whole new team, but Del Vecchio, Corradi, and Lupatelli are good additions. Beretta may not be the coach that they wanted, but bear in mind he bought the team on short notice. They are playing well, but they have lost a game. Any more losses could bear trouble though. However, Parma has cash and a plan and as long as they stay consistent they can have a rosy future and if Sanz does bring Capello to Parma, future Scudetto celebrations could arise.

Team news
Both teams have no suspensions, but both have a list of injuries. Roma have: Chivu, Mexes, Cassano, Mancini in the injury ward as Parma have: Morfeo, Bonera, Coly, Marrchioni and Ferronetti in their sick bay.

Players to watch
Totti (Roma)
Roma’s symbol. So far has played well and showed signs of maturity. Can he keep it up and carry this team and live up to his reputation as one of the world’s best we shall see.
Delvecchio (Parma)
Faces hid old team that deemed him surplus to the requirements. Wants to rediscover his form and perhaps gain a spot for the Azzurri (a long shot though), but he does have the drive and he could have a good season and what a better way to do it by scoring a goal on your old team.

Probable formations
Roma (4-3-3):
Curci, Panucci, Kuffour, Boro, Cufre, Perrotta, Aquilani, De Rossi, Totti, Nonda, Taddei. Coach: Spalletti.
Parma (4-3-3):
Lupatelli, Cannavaro, Cardone, Contini, Pasquale, Pisanu, Bolano, Simpilico, Bresciani, Delvecchio, Corradi. Coach: Beretta.

Probable outcome
Expect Roma to control the ball as they did vs. Udinese and Livorno. Roma has a lot of fire power and they can penetrate the Parma defence, however, they have not been that successful up front as they should be. They are playing in a more disciplined matter and play with heart, but they face a Parma that is always a threat and they too want to win as they do not want to fall behind in the table. All in all, expect Roma to win at the end of the day due to experience and the newly acquired taste: the will to win. Roma 2-1.

[kk_ghost]

Udinese - Juventus:

This game could have been far more interesting as if Udinese won against Fiorentina they would have been in joint first place with Juventus. Udinese, have played well till they played Fiorentina. In that game the Viola dominated and played well. Udinese did score two goals, but it was evident that they were tired and they are not used to the rigors of European competition. Remember last year as they bowed out in the UEFA Cup? They are still a solid team, but they face a merciless Juventus which has one thing on the Agenda: Win! Cosmi will have to dig deep and try to salvage lost spirit they suffered due to their first loss. However, he has a full team at his disposal. It is tough, But Udinese always give Juve a run for their money.
Juve want it all this year and by the way they are playing they could. They beat Brugges in Mid week and they dominated and could have scored more. The team is united and their black sheep DP, is playing well and showing what he is capable of. They know that Milan is in crisis, but they too know that Inter, Palermo and Fiorentina are high flying and losing points will not help them. A good result will earn them points which could give them a safety net down the road. Work hard now and reap the rewards later is their philosophy.

Team news
Juventus
No suspensions, but Buffon, Brindelli are still injured, along with Thuram, Pessotto and Chimenti.
Udinese
Cosmi has a full team at his disposal.
Players to watch
Iaquinta (Udinese)
A good goal scorer. Can he penetrate the Juve defence remains to be seen. Thuram is injured, so it is possible.
Del Piero (Juventus)
Will start again. Will he reproduce his old form or will he just regress back to the old style: one good others bad. We will see. A threat on the field never-the-less.

Probable starting XI’s
Udinese (4-3-3):
De Santics, Juarez, Natali, Felipe, D. Zenoni, Pinzo, Obodo, Muntari, Candela, Di Natale, Iaquinta. Coach: Cosmi.
Juventus (4-3-3):
Abbiati, Blasi, Kovac, F. Cannavaro, Zambrotta, Lamoranesi, Emerson, Vieria, Nedved, Trezeguet, Del Piero. Coach: Capello.

Probable outcome
Juve are on a high and are not willing to give away points. Udinese face a tough task, however these are the games in which the team can prove its worth and names are made. Udinese can do it, as Juve’s defence is injured, but Juve are no pushovers and they will come out to win and dominate the pitch. Juve to win by 1-0 and Udinese will be suffering from a loss of points. However, they can pick them up in other games.

KK_