Spanish Primera Liga

[kompressaur]

20:00 Villareal - Celta de Vigo Spa. Primera Division 1.70 3.35 5.15
20:00 Zaragoza - Osasuna Spa. Primera Division 1.70 3.35 5.15
20:00 Dep La Coruña - Real Betis Spa. Primera Division 2.00 3.15 3.80
20:00 Málaga - Alavés Spa. Primera Division 1.85 3.25 4.30
20:00 Sevilla FC - Cádiz Spa. Primera Division 1.60 3.50 5.80
20:00 Real Sociedad - Atletico Madrid Spa. Primera Division 2.45 3.15 2.80
20:00 Barcelona - Valencia Spa. Primera Division 1.60 3.50 5.80
20:00 Racing Santander - Espanyol Spa. Primera Division 2.30 3.20 3.00
20:00 Getafe - Mallorca Spa. Primera Division 1.85 3.25 4.30
odds from expekt

[Peter Orchard]

Haven't spent much time over this league yet but this one looks interesting:

Sociedad-Atletico
02-10-2004 Primera Division Sociedad Atletico 1 - 0
13-03-2004 Primera Division Sociedad Atletico 2 - 1
22-06-2003 Primera Division Sociedad Atletico 3 - 0
28-08-1999 Primera Division Sociedad Atletico 4 - 1
21-02-1999 Primera Division Sociedad Atletico 3 - 2
Real Sociedad 2,72

any basque experts?

[charly1]

Strong H2H in favour of Real Sociedad, but now it's time to be changed.

Atletico have won in the last round vs. strong Barcelona, and showed that they are very dangerous side, with fast attackers, Petrov, in the first place and then the sunday scorers: Torres and Kezman.

I have to say that I was suspicous about the final outcome of that match, and I thought that Barca couldn't loose it.I was wrong and Atletico desrevely won.
Meanwhile, Sociedad were thrashed by poor Malllorca with 5-2.
Receiving those five pieces tells me that their defence is not in a good condition and it'll be very hard for them to stop Atletico's attackers tonight.
If Atletico repeat nearly the same performance as vs. Barca, they'll easily win.
They lost at the last visit from La Coruna, undeservingly, with the late goal, and I think tonight it's pay back time.
Sociedad lost at Bilbao, which is not in a great form , easily 3-0, and won over Alaves as host ,2-1.
Despite H2H, the current form and quality is at Atletico's side.

Second bet from Primera is Villareal.
3 rounds played and Villareal is still without a win!
If that's not a surprise, than..
They're hosting the newcomer Celta tonight and it's the right place and the right time for the first win.
Celta won in Madrid ina a rather strange game, strange goals..but they lost at their own homeground vs. Santander in the last round, and showed expected erratic form.
Riquelme is likely to start the game,but with or without him, Villareal has too much quality for Celta at the moment, and with the homeground favour, I cant see anything but easy hw.

Barcelona-Valencia

Maybe the offered price for hw is not much, in such derby match, but I believe Barca will win, and I'll go for that.
Their performance vs. Atletico was not dissapointing.They were not fully concentrated in front of Atletico's gk, maybe not serious enough, and even with 4 strikers at the end of the match, they failed to score.Not to mention that Atletico played very well, not letting Ronaldinho and Eto' have their one man show.
I dont think that Valencia is looking for anything else but single point from tonight's clash.They'll be boosted by returning of Aimar.
At the other hand, anything but three points is a huge blow for the hosts.
They're not convincing yet,and with only 4 points from 3 previous rounds Barca is simply not satisfied.
This is the first big match of the season at Camp Nou, and I believe that Barca is going to give us a great performance, with a lots more of motivation in players heads,than it was in Madrid a couple days ago.
Barca always plays difficult games when it's in a situation to defend their own goal, but I expect Valencia will be in that role tonight,and that's a whole different story.
With a number of brilliant players, Barca is a strong favourite here to win, and a single move from Ronaldinho,Eto,Guilly, Deco...could easily solve the match.

[Peter Orchard]

Cheers, charly. Can't make me mind up about that one.
I'll decide closer to kick off.
Meanwhile here's a coupla basques:

[Peter Orchard]

The two Basque clubs recent records against the two top sides from the capital:

11-12-2004 Primera Division Athletic Atletico 1 - 0
23-05-2004 Primera Division Athletic Atletico 3 - 4
06-04-2003 Primera Division Athletic Atletico 1 - 0
20-11-1999 Primera Division Athletic Atletico 4 - 2
02-05-1999 Primera Division Athletic Atletico 1 - 2

25-09-2004 Primera Division Athletic Real Madrid 2 - 1
20-03-2004 Primera Division Athletic Real Madrid 4 - 2
26-01-2003 Primera Division Athletic Real Madrid 1 - 1
16-02-2002 Primera Division Athletic Real Madrid 2 - 1
10-02-2001 Primera Division Athletic Real Madrid 1 - 0

30-04-2005 Primera Division Sociedad Real Madrid 0 - 2
10-01-2004 Primera Division Sociedad Real Madrid 1 - 0
13-04-2003 Primera Division Sociedad Real Madrid 4 - 2
27-04-2002 Primera Division Sociedad Real Madrid 3 - 0
29-10-2000 Primera Division Sociedad Real Madrid 1 - 4

02-10-2004 Primera Division Sociedad Atletico 1 - 0
13-03-2004 Primera Division Sociedad Atletico 2 - 1
22-06-2003 Primera Division Sociedad Atletico 3 - 0
28-08-1999 Primera Division Sociedad Atletico 4 - 1
21-02-1999 Primera Division Sociedad Atletico 3 - 2

Not sure this proves anything but I have a feeling that these fixtures are a good bit more than just football matches.
(Bilbao's record against Real is quite impressive)

[Peter Orchard]

On the left is Sociedad and on the right is Bilbao.

A pet theory of mine is that teams that visit grounds where the crowd is almost on the touchline feel pressure from both on and off the pitch. (Nowhere is it more apt than the Balkans, imo.)

It might also support the better Bilbao results. After all, Madrid sides are representatives of the seat of the hated government and suddenly they're only a cough and a spit away.

Now I've gone on long enough.

[kk_ghost]

Preview of the round from Goal.com

Barcelona host an in form Valencia, in what is certainly the biggest clash this week, but Bilbao’s trip to Real Madrid could prove to be just as thrilling, if previous encounters are anything to go by.
Real Madrid and Barcelona both need a win to get their campaign back on track after faltering over the weekend. However, in Bilbao and Valencia respectively, they have the toughest opponents yet this season, at least on paper.
While it is difficult to ever bet against either of them, they will have to unfold some of their better football to get through this one, and get over some of the early season blues, which could even see Real lose their coach.
It remains to be seen whether the coaches succumb to outside pressure: whether Luxemburgo decides in favour of wing play, and if Rijkaard reverts to the eleven that won him the League last season.
While the big two try to discover their rhythm, strong starters and early leaders Deportivo host an already weary-looking Betis, who haven’t dealt well with European workload. With no European commitments, Deportivo could be the surprise package this season, where packed schedules are certain to become a factor later on.
Strong starters Celta Vigo are just a point behind the leaders after returning to top flight football, and travel to El Madrigal to face Villarreal, in what promises to be another cracker. From the Champions League to being relegated, you never quite know what to expect from Celta!
Pellegrini’s ‘Yellow Submarines’, on the other hand, have managed just two points and sit second from bottom, and a home win is what they need to get their confidence back. But Celta have already humbled Real Madrid, and are sure to provide stiff resistance to Riquelme and company.
Real’s neighbours Getafe, surprise leaders along with Deportivo, host a Mallorca outfit that ran riot against Real Sociedad over the weekend, hammering the Basques 5-2. Getafe produced some stunning football over the weekend, to come from behind and beat Alaves 4-3. However, coach Schuster will definitely want to be wary of last season, when Levante threw away a very positive start and ended up relegated.
Real’s other neighbours Atletico Madrid, travel to San Sebastian, and Carlos Bianchi will look to utilize the momentum from the big win against Barcelona, against a sluggish looking Real Sociedad.
Espanyol and Osasuna, like Celta, have won two out of three, and are also on the road this week, to face slow starters Racing Santander and Zaragoza, respectively. A win here, and they could even be leaders going into the weekend!
To round up the action, Sevilla and Malaga host newly promoted Cadiz and Alaves, respectively, and with due respect to the new boys, the hosts should be looking to get points in the bag.
Majority of the attention will, however, be on the matches involving the big two, as Rijkaard and Luxemburgo look to get into the groove.
With Real’s poor start, and the consequent pressure on the coach for not using the flanks, it was expected that Barcelona would pull away with the clinical efficiency of the previous campaign. But rather surprisingly, the Catalans have also had a sluggish start, and faltered against Atletico Madrid, after some sloppy defending from the ever-reliable Oleguer saw Barcelona lose their lead, and the match.
Madrid will hope that calls for a rematch following some sloppy officiating does not take away from their preparations, and will want to keep in mind that the Basques have always done well against them.
Meanwhile against a rejuvenated Valencia, Barcelona will look to gain confidence from Rijkaard’s agreeing to a two year extension, to take his contract to 2009. Valencia’s Patrick Kluivert will, however, miss out on a reunion with his friends at the Camp Nou through tendonitis in the right knee. However, Aimar, whom coach Quique Flores has brought back to life, is expected to play, although with a mask to protect his face after Saturday’s injury.
It is too early, but neither the Catalans, nor the Merengues, will want to let Deportivo get too far ahead!

KK_

[Peter Orchard]

Well, the Basque vs the detested Madriders theory lives to fight another day.

Real Madrid -Bilbao will play tonight but I'm not assuming that the theory holds good for the away games though if Bilbao want this, there's no time like tonight.
Haven't a clue about this though.
All I know is 1,46 is taking the piss.

[Bigkegman]

Cause the games on tele i must bet - need to get out of this habit.

anyhow OVER for me

Real can't aford to lose another game on the bounce so imo they must look to score and Bilbao aren't that bad - especially the h2h's seem to favour them over the last 2 seasons.

both can score and both will concede - over

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Im in the same boat Kegman - whenever there is in running about im a sucker for them.

Woodgate looks set for a starting place and even though he has been out for so long this should be a timely return for Madrid as his height especially will help as they have been conceding goals for fun from set pieces.

Zidane and Baptista will miss the match according to reports and this is a big loss for Madrid.

Casillas; Salgado, Woodgate, Helguera, Roberto Carlos; Pablo García, Gravesen, Beckham, Robinho; Raúl, Ronaldo.

That looks like being the starting 11 for Madrid. Not the most attacking side we have been used to from seeing from Madrid sides down the years, and this could possibly result in a better defensive performance for them?

Bilbao have won the last 3 meetings between these sides so for once im going to follow history and have a dabble in the handicap market.

Bilbao available +1 @ 7/4 Bet 365, or +1.5 asian @ 1.9.

Anyone explain this asian handicap bet and how it would work for this game as i could definately be interested in that.

[Peter Orchard]

Asian Rules though you'll have to do your sums Kiko since the Asian market is suspended at kick off.

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

Cheers for that Peter - bookmarked it.

Team receiving a 1 ½ ball start (+1 ½ )
Lose by exactly 1, draw or win by any score- All bets on this selection are winners.
Lose by 2 or more- All bets on this selection are losers.

Well i think i will be taking the +1.5 asian then as i think if they are going to get beat it will be by a narrow 1 goal defeat, although i think the draw is more probable.

But i have been just reading about Bilbao's manager and his silly experiments he likes to do and is set to do tonight again playing players like Etxeberria out of position so i have my doubts now.

Argh - why can't things just be simple!

[Peter Orchard]

In the back of my mind I see a Real win tonight without being able to explain whyfor.
I think Graveson in the middle and Ronaldo up front owe the dwindling faithful a home win.

I still think 1,46 is pathetic but wait till half time and put something on Real if they're still in it.

[Peter Orchard]

I should have said..put something on Real "if it's still a contest"

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

1-0 Bilbao.

So if im right in thinking now only if Madrid win by 3 or more i lose?

That correct?

Just taking in running now double chance draw or Bilbao to win at 4/7.

Off to work. Good night