Greek Football 19th March

[GaNgStA kEeKs]

A Ethniki

15:00 Panionios - PAOK Gre. A Ethniki 2.30 3.15 2.85
15:00 Apollon Kalamarias - Ionikos Nikeas Gre. A Ethniki 1.80 3.15 4.40
15:00 Kallithea - AEK Athens Gre. A Ethniki 5.50 3.40 1.60
15:00 Panathinaikos - OFI Crete Gre. A Ethniki 1.10 7.25 20.00
15:00 Xanthi - Olympiakos CFP Gre. A Ethniki 4.00 3.10 1.90
15:00 Atromitos - Larisa Gre. A Ethniki 1.80 3.15 4.40
15:00 Iraklis - Egaleo Gre. A Ethniki 1.60 3.50 5.25
15:00 Akratitos - Levadiakos Gre. A Ethniki 2.30 3.00 3.00

Odds from Expekt

B Ethniki odds to follow

[tolis07]

hello to all of you
a definite banker for me is a C' division match: thyella-vyzas 1@1.40(betandwin)

vyzas is a mediocre team, especially on the road (1-5-6), missing also 4 regulars.
thyella is fighting for promotion (not many possibilities, but it will fight to the end), is good at home (6-4-1) and have much better roster.

everyone interested on that bet should bet immediately, as odds on home win will drop eventually till sunday.

good luck to all.

[censor]

The 24th round in A Ethniki. Xanthi hosts leaders Olympiakos in a crucial game for the hosts. Panathinaikos hosts OFI and look to have an easy task. A crucial game for both teams at Kallithea, where AEK must win to continue their fight for a Champions League spot. Very important game between Atromitos and Larisa with both teams fighting for an Uefa Cup spot. Another important game is the Akratitos - Levadiakos one with both teams fighting to avoid relegation. Panionios host PAOK on Monday with the hosts in relegation danger and the guests fighting for an Uefa Cup spot.
The 24th round in B Ethniki as well. Kalamata host Aris in a game important mainly for the visitors. The other promotion candidates Ergotelis and Kerkyra look to have easy task at home. In the relegation battle Panserraikos host Ethnikos Asteras in a must win game for the home team. The other teams fighting to avoid relegation, Ilysiakos, Panahaiki and Olympiakos Volou have difficult games away.
As for the weather forecast some rainfalls are predicted for Saturday in Northern and Western Greece, from Sunday better weather conditions are expected.
More to come later on,
GL2A

[censor]

For the Saturday games
Kallithea - AEK
Kallithea are in the last place along with Akratitos. They need points badly to retain their few hopes to avoid relegation. They come from a loss away vs Akratitos last week, in a desicive game for both teams. Their record at home is 3-5-4. For this game they have impotant returns. Regulars Koutsospyros (F), Koulakiotis (D), Petkovic (M) return in the squad. Also Giantsef (M) a long time absent, will be in the squad and maybe in the starting line. They will miss regular Radovanovic (F).
AEK are second in the table along with Panathinaikos. They are much motivated for this game in their fight for the second place and a Champions League spot. They come from a home win vs Panionios. A team usually with good defense. Rather good travellers (7-2-3). In this game they will have the help of their fans. AEK will miss regular Soredino (GK), that missed the previous game as well. Regular Cirillo (D) is doubtfull. Regular Liberopoulos (F) returns in the squad.
This season AEK - Kallithea 2-0
A very important game for both teams. AEK are the favourites as they have better quality. Morale is low at Kallithea after the last bad result vs Akratitos, but they will fight in this game. Predictions for o/u are difficult as Kallithea have many overs at home, but AEK have good defense usually. The away win is the more possible result, still it will not be an easy one and the odds don't represent much value.
My bet will be AEK win, 1.65 at Globet, stakes 5/10.
Xanthi - Olympiakos
Xanthi are 5th in the table, 2 points above 6th Larisa. They are motivated for this game in their fight for an Uefa Cup spot. A team with good defense, at home they play more offensive football. They are good at home (7-4-0). They come from a loss away vs Larisa, and now they can't afford to lose. Note that this season the teams met in the Cup and Xanthi proved a difficult opponent for Olympiakos. Regular Sikof (D) that missed the previous game is doubtfull. They will miss regular Fliskas (M).
Olympiakos are first in the table, and almost already the Champions. They come from a home win 2-1 vs Kalamaria, and they have 16 consecutive wins for the League, a record for A Ethniki. They are good travellers (10-0-1). Note that they don't have a draw in the League so far. A team with good offensive line. In this game they will miss Dani (F), Kapsis (D). On the contrary regular Kostadinou (F) returns in the squad.
This season Olympiakos - Xanthi 2-0. In the Cup Olympiakos - Xanthi 1-1, Xanthi - Olympiakos 0-1.
A hard call. Olympiakos are better team and good travellers. Xanthi are good at home and much motivated for the game in their fight for an Uefa Cup spot. The odds for the away win are lower than expected and don't represent much value given that Olympiakos can afford to drop points. Olympiakos don't have a draw so far in the League and this can be their first. A possible under given Xanthi good defense, also the predicted rainfall can help in that. Not an easy game to predict, still the draw looks value.
My bet will be the draw, 3.39 at Bet365, stakes 3/10.

[censor]

Few words for the Saturday game in B Ethniki
Kalamata - Aris
Kalamata are in the middle of the table, 5 points above relegation zone. A team with good defense but not so good offensive line. Their record at home is 4-3-3. They come from a loss away to Panahaiki 2-0, in a must win game for the hosts. In this game they have impotant returns, 3 regulars in the front line. On the contrary they will miss regular Kalomoiris (GK).
Aris are 3rd in the table and favourites for promotion. They are 4 points above 4th Thrasyvoulos. They have the best defense in the division, but they don't score easy. As travellers they have 5-3-3 record but they have improved lately. They come from a home win 3-0 vs Veria. Aris will have the help of some fans in this game. They will miss regular Garcia (M), also regulars Caceres (F), Sanhurho (M) that missed the previous game as well. Regular Skarmutsos (F) is doubtfull.
In the first round Aris - Kalamata 1-0.
Aris are much motivated in this game as they are fighting for promotion. They are the favourites given their good form as well. Kalamata are not far from relegation zone and need points at home. X2 looks a good coverage in fixed odds. Both teams have good defensive lines so the game is a possible under. The predicted rainfall can help in this.
My bet will be the under, 1.45 at Globet, stakes 4/10.
GL2A

[Galilee]

Hey everyone. Good previews here. I am Greek as well so I follow the greek leagues well but not much time for comments I'm afraid. Anyway censor is soing a good job previewing so you should all be quite happy in this thread.

The Kalamata - Aris game is an obvious under but as the odds are not that great I could argue for the under 1.5 if you can get a hold of it. Both teams play very tight, the draw is not too bad for either of them, a final score 0-0 would not suprise me. The problem is that there will be big crowds in this one (for greek 2nd division standards anyway) and this might change the character of the game.

AEK looks a good bet against Kallithea. I am on them anyway and I don't think they will slip in this one in their chase for a Champions League spot next year.

[censor]

Wellcome Galilee to the forum .
Thanks for your good words, your opinion and picks are interesting and helpfull here.
Good work for the Kalamata game .
Kalamata - Aris 0-0 FT.

[censor]

The results
Xanthi - Olympiakos 1-0
Kallithea - AEK 1-4
Xanthi made the surprise and beat Olympiakos at home. A balanced game until Xanthi scored. Then Olympiakos pressed to equalise, but didn't manage to score. An important win for the hosts in their fight for an Uefa Cup spot. Olympiakos are still first and almost the Champions this season, still with no draw so far in the League.
Important, and rather easier than expected, win for AEK in their fight for the second place and a Champions League spot. Kallithea now face relegation close.

[censor]

For the Sunday games
Iraklis - Egaleo
Iraklis are 5th in the table, 4 points above 6th Larisa, ambitious for an Uefa Cup spot. They are strong at home (9-1-1). A team with good offensive line. They come from an away win vs Levadiakos in a crucial game for the hosts. Coach Kofidis asked for the fans to help the team in this crucial game. Not important absents for them, as regulars Snautser (D), Drougas (M) return in the squad. They will miss regular Fortuzi (F) that missed the previous games as well.
Egaleo are 9th in the table, 4 points below 6th Larisa. They still have some hopes for an Uefa Cup spot, but the last loss at home vs Atromitos was a big blow for them. In this game they had many complaints from the ref. A team with good defense, but some scoring problems lately. As travellers they are a difficult opponent with many draws (2-5-4). Coach Hatzaras said he will make some changes in the team in the next games. In this game they will miss regulars Nikolopoulos (F), also Sezareq (F) that missed the previous game as well. Also Edusei (D) a long time absent.
This season Egaleo - Iraklis 1-1
Iraklis are the favourites in the game. They are strong at home and much motivated. Egaleo will defend mainly for the draw, and they have good defense. Still Iraklis have good offensive line, dangerous for any team. A possible under given Egaleo good defense. The odds for the home win are not great, but this is the more possible result.
My bet will be the home win, 1.65 at Eurobet, stakes 7/10.

[censor]

Panathinaikos - OFI
Two teams with very good relationships. Tradition favour Panathinaikos strongly. Panathinaikos are third right now and need points in their fight for a Champions League spot. They are good at home (10-1-1). A team with good offensive line. In this game, they will miss regular Darlas (M). Regulars Kotsios (D), Nilsson (D) return in the squad.
OFI are low in the table, 1 point above relegation zone. They are mediocre travellers (0-5-7). A team with good offensive line. They come from an important home win vs Ionikos 3-0. In this game they have many absents. They will miss regular Degiannof (M), also regulars Belevonis (D), Gonzales (D), Kounenakis (M), Koltzos (M) that missed the previous game as well.
In the first round OFI - Panathinaikos 0-2.
Panathinaikos are the big favourites in this game. The teams have good relationships, Panathinaikos are strong at home and motivated. OFI are also motivated, but probably they have to gather points in other games. The odds for the home win are low but fair, for the low odds backers. Looking for better odds, probably it will not be a narrow win for the home side. A possible over as an open game is expected.
My bet will be the over 2.5 goals, 1.95 at Bet365, stakes 5/10.
Akratitos - Levadiakos
A big game between teams that fight to avoid relegation. Akratitos are last in the table, along with Kallithea, 4 points below relegation zone. They come from an important home win vs Kallithea. With a win in this game they keep their hopes to avoid relegation alive. A team with good defense usually, at home they have record 3-3-5. In this game they will miss regular Pipinis (D), also Sfakianakis (D), Badas (D) are doubtfull.
Levadiakos are low in the table, 2 points above relegation zone. A team with good defense, as travellers they have record 0-2-9. They come from a loss at home 0-1 vs Iraklis. In this game they will have the help of their fans. They will play mainly for the draw. Full suad for them.
In the first round Levadiakos - Akratitos 1-1.
A hard call, as an impotant game for both teams. Akratitos are the favourites given their better form. Levadiakos will defend mainly, and can take a positive result. 1x look a good coverage in this game. A possible under given Levadiakos good defense, and also Akratitos not very good offensive line.
My bet will be the under 2.5 goals, 1.55 at Interwetten, stakes 5/10.

[censor]

For the rest of the games
Atromitos - Larisa
A big game for both teams that fight for an Uefa Cup spot. Atromitos are 7th in the table, with 1 point less than 6th Larisa. They are good at home with record 6-3-2. They come from an important away win vs Egaleo. In this game they will miss regular Iliopoulos (F) that missed the previous game as well. Regular Koutsis (M) is doubtfull.
Larisa are 6th in the table, ambitious for an Uefa Cup spot. A team with good offensive line. Not very good travellers (0-4-7). They come from an important home win vs Xanthi. In this game they will have the help of their fans. Note that midweek they have an important game for the Cup vs Olympiakos away, and they are much motivated in this game. They will miss regular Vella Junior (M).
In the first round Larisa - Atromitos 2-1.
A hard call as a game desicive for an Uefa Cup spot. Atromitos are the favourites given the home ground, and Larisa mediocre performances as travellers. Still Larisa is in good form and can take a positive result. A possible over as Larisa always play open football. The home win is the more possible result, but the odds are lower than expected and don't represent value.
My bet will be the home win, 1.80 at Ladbrokes, stakes 4/10.
Kalamaria - Ionikos
Kalamaria are in the middle of the table. A team with good offensive line, they are good at home (5-4-2). They come from a loss away 2-1 vs Olympiakos, with a rather good performance. In this game regular Pappas (F) returns in the squad. Regulars Mourafski (M), Abonsah (D) that missed the previous game are doubtfull. They will miss regular Ioannou (D).
Ionikos are also in the middle of the table. As travellers they have record 0-6-5. They come from a loss away 3-0 vs OFI in a game they had important absents. In this game Ionikos will miss regulars King (D), Perone (F), Kostadinidis (M), Tsimplidis (M), Ofrydopoulos (D) that missed the previous game as well. Regular Voureksakis (D) return in the squad.
In the first round Ionikos - Kalamaria 2-0
A hard call. Kalamaria are the favourites given the home ground and Ionikos absents. Still a draw can suit both in the end, as they are not completely safe. A possible over given Kalamaria good offensive line. 1x looks a good coverage in the game. We don't get good odds for that anyway. I can not find an appropriate bet for the game so I will skip it.
GL2A

[censor]

My bets from Lower Leagues
In B Ethniki
Double Panserraikos + Ergotelis = 1.45*1.33 = 1.93 at Victor Chandler, stakes 6/10.
Key factor: A must win for Panserraikos in their fight to avoid relegation, whereas Ethnikos Asteras have no targets for the season.
Ergotelis are ambitious for promotion and strong at home. Niki Volou are in mediocre form and not conviencing travellers.
In C Ethniki
Double Thyella Patron + Ethnikos = 1.40*1.45= 2.03 at Betandwin, stakes 5/10.
Key factor: Ethnikos is a quality team fighting for promotion, whereas Ahaiki look alsmost already relegated. As for the Thyella game, Tolis made a preview already for the game.
GL2A

[BABA MARTHA]

Censor very good job bravo and thx for the nice comments good luck

[farnerud]

Very good job again mate. Good luck with your picks. I took Iraklis and Pana over.

[Galilee]

Nice one censor, once more.

I had a bit of luck yesterday, getting both my picks on AEK away win and the Kalamata - Aris game (I had some money on the draw, the under 1.5 and the correct score 0-0). To be honest I'd give up my bet on the correct score for an Aris goal from the penalty Skarmoutsos missed as I am an ARIS fan. Well you can't have everything can you?

Today I am a bit behind schedule but one of the strongest bets imo is the unders at the Akratitos - Levadeiakos game. It would be a major surprise if we had loads of goals in this one as there should not be more than 5-6 clear-cut chances in the whole game for both teams.

Gambling a bit I would say that Atromitos vs Larisa could have more than 2.5 goals. Larisa is playing offensively creating loads of chances while I was impressed by Atromitos last week in their away game vs Aigaleo that ended 0-1 in the last minute but could easily have more goals. Over 2.5 is priced high enough as all odds concerning over 2.5 in the Greek league.