Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos Prediction, Tips & Odds
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos
Match Preview
The model favours Olympiakos Piraeus to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in fifth place, Olympiakos has accumulated 10 points from their five matches, with three wins, one draw, and one loss. Their defensive record is solid, conceding only two goals, which highlights their ability to maintain a strong backline. However, they will need to improve their goal-scoring, having netted just four times so far this season. On the other hand, Panathinaikos is enjoying an impressive season, topping the league with 15 points from five matches, all of which have ended in victories. With a remarkable goal difference of +10, they have scored 12 goals while conceding only two. Their current form, with five consecutive wins, demonstrates their attacking prowess and defensive stability, making them a formidable opponent. According to the model, Olympiakos has a win probability of 44.1%, while Panathinaikos sits at 27.3%. The likelihood of a draw is 28.7%. There is also a 44.9% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. One potential caveat for Olympiakos could be their reliance on a solid performance from their defence; any lapses could allow Panathinaikos to exploit their weaknesses. The full method of prediction, which employs an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as compiled by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 42% of matches. Panathinaikos average 1.6 goals per game.
Olympiakos Piraeus manage games at home, conceding just 0.85 goals per match. Panathinaikos score 1.61 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
Olympiakos Piraeus have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Olympiakos Piraeus clean sheets, in line with their 42% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Olympiakos Piraeus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.25 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.08 | 1.73 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.17 | 3.30 | 3.39 | 2.10 | 1.68 | 1.90 | 1.82 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Olympiakos Piraeus leads 4-1)In the last 10 matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos, Olympiakos has won 4 times, there have been 5 draws, and Panathinaikos has won just once. This record indicates a competitive rivalry, with a notable frequency of draws, showing that matches are often closely contested. Scorelines like 0-0 and 1-1 suggest several low-scoring encounters, and Panathinaikos's last victory dates back some time, indicating a struggle to secure wins against Olympiakos in recent fixtures. The overall results reflect a balance, but with Olympiakos having a slight edge in wins.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PAOK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  AEK Athens FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  OFI | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | WLDWW |
| 6 |  Panetolikos | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 | LLWWW |
| 12 |  Asteras Tripolis | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 | DDLLL |
| 13 |  Volos NFC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 | LLDDL |
| 14 |  Levadiakos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 1 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonOlympiakos Piraeus have won 7 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1 and lost to Olympiakos Piraeus 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 9D 9L from the last 33 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Panathinaikos have won 12 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Panathinaikos 0-1 and beat Kifisia 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 10D 7L from the last 36 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersOlympiakos Piraeus
No reported absences
Panathinaikos
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Olympiakos Piraeus have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; Panathinaikos 5.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Olympiakos Piraeus have generated 1.76 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Olympiakos Piraeus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
