Orlando City SC vs Nashville SC Prediction, Tips & Odds
Orlando City SC vs Nashville SC
Match Preview
The model favours Nashville SC to win against Orlando City SC, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Nashville currently sits at the top of the league standings with 33 points from 14 matches, boasting an impressive record of 10 wins, 3 draws, and just 1 loss. Their goal difference of +20 highlights their strong defensive capabilities, having conceded only 11 goals this season. With three wins and a draw in their last five matches, Nashville demonstrates consistent form and resilience. In contrast, Orlando City SC finds themselves at 12th place, with just 14 points from 15 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses reflects struggles throughout the season, particularly evident in their goal difference of -21. While they have managed two wins in their last five outings, their overall performance has been inconsistent, which could hinder their ability to compete with the league leaders. The model output indicates a win probability of approximately 65% for Nashville, with the projected score being 2-0. A key market percentage to note is Nashville's chance of winning at around 60%. However, the caveat is that if Orlando can capitalise on set pieces or take advantage of any lapses in Nashville's defence, they could pose a greater threat than anticipated. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, which details our in-house model that analyses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.2% probability.
Nashville SC have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Nashville SC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Orlando City SC vs Nashville SC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.28 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.48 | 2.50 | |
| 2.76 | 3.68 | 2.28 | 1.49 | 2.32 | 1.45 | 2.51 | |
| 2.75 | 3.80 | 2.30 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 2.85 | 3.88 | 2.35 | 1.58 | 2.49 | — | — | |
| 2.81 | 3.50 | 2.23 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.25 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 2.75 | 3.90 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.80 | 3.70 | 2.28 | 1.52 | 2.45 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
Betano | 2.82 | 3.80 | 2.30 | 1.57 | 2.47 | 1.47 | 2.55 |
Superbet | 2.75 | 3.80 | 2.37 | 1.58 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.47 |
BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.70 | 2.30 | 1.53 | 2.30 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Orlando City SC leads 5-3)The head-to-head record between Orlando City SC and Nashville SC shows Orlando with 5 wins, Nashville with 3 wins, and 1 draw across their last 10 encounters. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive and one-sided matches, with notable heavy defeats for Orlando, including a 5-0 loss in March 2026 and a 5-1 defeat in August 2025. However, Orlando has also secured some convincing victories, such as a 3-0 win in August 2024. The presence of a 2-2 draw suggests that there have been tightly contested games as well, but Nashville has not won against Orlando since 2023.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 34 | DDLWL |
| 1 | Nashville SC | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 40 | DLWWW |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 34 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 33 | LDLWL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 30 | LDWDL |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 20 | LWWLD |
| 14 |  Austin | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 17 | LLWLL |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 14 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonOrlando City SC have won 6 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Orlando City SC 1-0 and beat Orlando City SC 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 3D 15L from the last 29 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Nashville SC have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with DC United 2-2 and lost to Orlando City SC 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 6L from the last 30 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersOrlando City SC5
Nashville SC4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Ramy Touchan has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Ramy Touchan to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Orlando City SC have averaged 4.1 corners per match at home; Nashville SC 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Nashville SC have generated 0.96 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 3.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Nashville SC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
