PAOK vs Kalamata Prediction, Tips & Odds
PAOK vs Kalamata
Match Preview
The model favours PAOK to win with a projected scoreline of 2-0 against Kalamata. Currently sitting in second place, PAOK has made a strong start to the season with four wins from five matches, scoring 12 goals while conceding just five. This solid goal difference of +7 highlights their offensive capabilities and defensive resilience, essential factors as they push for the top of the standings. On the other hand, Kalamata finds themselves in a more challenging position, ranked 10th with only one win from their five matches. Their goal tally of six scored against eight conceded indicates struggles both in attack and defence, contributing to a negative goal difference of -2. With just four points, they will need to find a way to turn their form around if they hope to climb the table. The model gives PAOK a win probability of 75.5%, with a projected score of 2-0 and a likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 57.8%. However, a potential caveat for PAOK could be complacency, especially against a lower-ranked opponent like Kalamata. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season to derive these insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 40% of matches. Kalamata average 1.6 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
PAOK have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 PAOK win as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature PAOK clean sheets, in line with their 40% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. PAOK are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
PAOK vs Kalamata| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.24 | 5.35 | 12.25 | 1.62 | 2.21 | 2.16 | 1.60 | |
| 1.18 | 5.50 | 12.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.25 | 5.00 | 12.00 | — | — | 2.30 | 1.55 | |
| 1.18 | 6.00 | 13.00 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 2.38 | 1.53 | |
| 1.25 | 5.35 | 12.00 | 1.62 | 2.21 | 2.16 | 1.62 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (PAOK leads 2-0)In the last two matches between PAOK and Kalamata, PAOK has won both encounters, with a record of 2 wins and 0 draws for Kalamata. The scorelines show a consistent advantage for PAOK, winning 2-0 in each match. This indicates a one-sided matchup, as Kalamata has not managed to score against PAOK in these fixtures. The absence of draws and the narrow nature of the defeats suggest that while Kalamata has struggled, the results have not been heavily lopsided in terms of scorelines.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 | PAOK | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  AEK Athens FC | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  OFI | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | WLDWW |
| 6 |  Panetolikos | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 9 | LLWWW |
| 10 | Kalamata | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 4 | LWDLL |
| 12 |  Asteras Tripolis | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 | DDLLL |
| 13 |  Volos NFC | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 | LLDDL |
| 14 |  Levadiakos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 1 | LDLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPAOK have won 10 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat PAOK 2-0 and drew with PAOK 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 10D 9L from the last 35 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kalamata have won 5 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Volos NFC 2-2 and lost to Panetolikos 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 3D 4L from the last 18 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPAOK
No reported absences
Kalamata
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
PAOK have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Kalamata 2.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
PAOK have generated 1.71 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 46% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. PAOK player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
