Santos vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction, Tips & Odds
Santos vs Atletico Paranaense
Match Preview
The model favours Atletico Paranaense to win against Santos, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Atletico Paranaense currently sits in third place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 36 points from 20 matches. Their strong season is marked by 11 wins, which highlights their ability to convert chances effectively. With a goal difference of +9, they also boast a solid defensive record, having conceded just 19 goals this season. On the other hand, Santos finds themselves in 14th place, with 22 points from their 20 games played. Their season has been inconsistent, reflected in a record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses. Despite a recent uptick in form with three wins in their last five matches, their overall performance has been lacking, particularly in defence, where they have conceded 33 goals, resulting in a negative goal difference. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 59% for Atletico Paranaense, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage to note is that Atletico Paranaense is currently favoured in betting lines. However, Santos could pose a threat if they manage to leverage their home advantage. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines their in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Santos manage games at home, conceding just 1.26 goals per match. Atletico Paranaense score 1.41 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.1% probability.
Santos have been the stronger side, winning 33% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Santos clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Santos are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Santos vs Atletico Paranaense| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.85 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.06 | 3.22 | 3.62 | 2.08 | 1.72 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 2.00 | 3.20 | 3.70 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 2.14 | 3.28 | 3.81 | 2.14 | 1.75 | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.14 | 3.39 | 2.16 | 1.72 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.12 | 3.32 | 3.72 | 2.12 | 1.75 | 1.83 | 1.87 | |
| 2.14 | 3.20 | 3.45 | 2.12 | 1.71 | 1.82 | 1.88 | |
| 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.90 | 2.18 | 1.72 | 1.83 | 1.91 |
Superbet | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.70 | 2.12 | 1.73 | 1.85 | 1.88 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.60 | 2.02 | 1.68 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Atletico Paranaense leads 5-3)In their last 10 matches, Atletico Paranaense has won 5 times, Santos has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested; however, Atletico Paranaense has achieved a couple of significant victories, including a 3-0 win. Santos has managed to secure narrow wins, such as 2-1, but they have also faced heavier defeats. The most recent win for Santos against Atletico Paranaense was in July 2021, suggesting a trend towards Atletico Paranaense's advantage in recent encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 22 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 38 | 16 | 22 | 48 | DWLWW |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 39 | 18 | 21 | 42 | WDDWW |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 40 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 35 | DDDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 33 | WWLWD |
| 6 |  Bahia | 22 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 33 | DDDDW |
| 17 | Santos | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 22 | LDLWL |
| 19 |  Remo | 22 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 22 | DLWLW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 10 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSantos have won 9 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Atletico Paranaense 0-2 and drew with Remo 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 14D 12L from the last 39 games (33% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Atletico Paranaense have won 5 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Atletico Paranaense 0-2 and lost to Vitoria 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 7D 11L from the last 34 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSantos4-2-3-1Confirmed
Atletico Paranaense3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
12 playersSantos7
Atletico Paranaense5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Santos have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Atletico Paranaense 5.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Santos have generated 1.75 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 33% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Santos player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
