Sweden vs Tunisia Prediction, Tips & Odds

Sweden vs Tunisia

World CupGroup Stage - 1
Sweden
#3 · World Cup
DLWWD
5 - 1
Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Referee: Yael Falcon Perez, Argentina
Tunisia
#4 · World Cup
LLDWD

Match Preview

Sweden is well-positioned to secure a victory against Tunisia in this Group F clash, having accumulated four points from their three matches, which puts them in third place. Their recent competitive form shows a mix of results, including two wins against Poland and Ukraine, suggesting they have the ability to score goals. With seven goals scored and seven conceded, Sweden has displayed a willingness to engage in attacking play, although defensive vulnerabilities exist. In contrast, Tunisia has struggled significantly in the tournament, finishing bottom of the group with no points from three matches. Their recent competitive form indicates limited success, with a recent loss to Belgium and a series of friendlies that yielded only one win. This lack of competitive edge, combined with their inability to find the back of the net consistently, raises concerns about their capability to challenge Sweden effectively. Sweden's manager, E. Hamrén, has been at the helm since October 2023, and his tactical approach appears to be yielding results, particularly in attacking scenarios. Meanwhile, Tunisia's S. Lamouchi has had less time to instill his tactics, which may hinder their performance in this crucial match. One caveat to consider is Sweden's absence of I. Hien, which could impact their defensive stability. However, given Tunisia's struggles and Sweden's relatively stronger form, the outlook leans favorably towards the Swedes. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has utilized an in-house model that evaluates aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the context of the tournament to arrive at this assessment.

About the Teams

Sweden

ManagerE. Hamrén · since 2023-10-01
Tournament historyLast 3 editions — 2018: Quarter-finals. Best: Quarter-finals.
Recent matches
Dvs Greece 2-2Friendly
Lat Norway 1-3Friendly
Wvs Poland 3-2World Cup - Qualification Europe
Wat Ukraine 3-1World Cup - Qualification Europe
Dvs Slovenia 1-1World Cup - Qualification Europe
Lat Switzerland 1-4World Cup - Qualification Europe

Tunisia

ManagerS. Lamouchi · since 2026-01-01
Tournament historyLast 3 editions — 2022: Group stage; 2018: Group stage. Best: Group stage.
Recent matches
Lat Belgium 0-5Friendly
Lat Austria 0-1Friendly
Dat Canada 0-0Friendly
Wat Haiti 1-0Friendly
Dat Mali 1-1Africa Cup of Nations
Dat Tanzania 1-1Africa Cup of Nations

Head to Head

Last 1 Meetings (Sweden leads 1-0)
1 Sweden0 Draw0 Tunisia
15 Jun
Sweden
5-1
Tunisia
World Cup

Sweden and Tunisia have met once in their history, with Sweden winning that match 5-1 during the 2026 World Cup. This solitary competitive fixture offers limited insight into their overall rivalry, as there are no draws or wins for Tunisia to consider. Given the lack of additional meetings and the fact that this result is recent, it is difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions about their head-to-head dynamics.

Group F Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Netherlands
321010467
LWWD
2
Japan
31207345
LDWD
3
Sweden
31117704
LDLW
4
Tunisia
3003212-100
LLL

Key Statistics

2026 Season
SwedenTunisia
1.3Goals p.g.1.18
2Goals conceded p.g.1.36
0%Clean sheets27%
20%Win rate27%
3.3Avg goals in match2.55
1.02xG per game
50%Possession %50%
3.5Shots on target / game2.8
4.1Corners per game5.2
Sweden
Recent Form

Sweden have won 1 of their last 5 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Greece 2-2 and beat Poland 3-2.

Overall, the wider run reads 2W 3D 5L from the last 10 games (20% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: SwedenAll competitions
04 Jun
Sweden
2-2
Greece
Friendlies
01 Jun
Norway
3-1
Sweden
Friendlies
31 Mar
Sweden
3-2
Poland
World Cup - Qualification Europe
26 Mar
Ukraine
1-3
Sweden
World Cup - Qualification Europe
Nov 25
Sweden
1-1
Slovenia
World Cup - Qualification Europe
Nov 25
Switzerland
4-1
Sweden
World Cup - Qualification Europe
2
Win
20%
3
Draw
30%
5
Lost
50%
Tunisia
Recent Form

Tunisia have won 2 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tunisia 5-0 and lost to Austria 1-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 3W 4D 4L from the last 11 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: TunisiaAll competitions
06 Jun
Belgium
5-0
Tunisia
Friendlies
01 Jun
Austria
1-0
Tunisia
Friendlies
31 Mar
Canada
0-0
Tunisia
Friendlies
29 Mar
Haiti
0-1
Tunisia
Friendlies
03 Jan
Mali
1-1
Tunisia
Africa Cup of Nations
Dec 25
Tanzania
1-1
Tunisia
Africa Cup of Nations
3
Win
27%
4
Draw
36%
4
Lost
36%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.

Unavailable Players

1 player

Sweden1

I. Hien
Missing FixtureMuscle Bruise

Tunisia

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

Pick the result you expect

OUR PREDICTION
Sweden to Win

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.

Sweden vs Tunisia Predictions, Stats, H2H - 15 Jun 2026 | The Daily Punt