Sweden vs Tunisia Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sweden vs Tunisia


Match Preview
Sweden is well-positioned to secure a victory against Tunisia in this Group F clash, having accumulated four points from their three matches, which puts them in third place. Their recent competitive form shows a mix of results, including two wins against Poland and Ukraine, suggesting they have the ability to score goals. With seven goals scored and seven conceded, Sweden has displayed a willingness to engage in attacking play, although defensive vulnerabilities exist. In contrast, Tunisia has struggled significantly in the tournament, finishing bottom of the group with no points from three matches. Their recent competitive form indicates limited success, with a recent loss to Belgium and a series of friendlies that yielded only one win. This lack of competitive edge, combined with their inability to find the back of the net consistently, raises concerns about their capability to challenge Sweden effectively. Sweden's manager, E. Hamrén, has been at the helm since October 2023, and his tactical approach appears to be yielding results, particularly in attacking scenarios. Meanwhile, Tunisia's S. Lamouchi has had less time to instill his tactics, which may hinder their performance in this crucial match. One caveat to consider is Sweden's absence of I. Hien, which could impact their defensive stability. However, given Tunisia's struggles and Sweden's relatively stronger form, the outlook leans favorably towards the Swedes. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has utilized an in-house model that evaluates aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the context of the tournament to arrive at this assessment.
About the Teams
Sweden
Tunisia
Head to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Sweden leads 1-0)

Sweden and Tunisia have met once in their history, with Sweden winning that match 5-1 during the 2026 World Cup. This solitary competitive fixture offers limited insight into their overall rivalry, as there are no draws or wins for Tunisia to consider. Given the lack of additional meetings and the fact that this result is recent, it is difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions about their head-to-head dynamics.
Group F Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 7 | LWWD | |
| 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | LDWD | |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 | LDLW | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 | LLL |
Key Statistics
2026 Season
Sweden have won 1 of their last 5 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Greece 2-2 and beat Poland 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 3D 5L from the last 10 games (20% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.













Tunisia have won 2 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tunisia 5-0 and lost to Austria 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 4D 4L from the last 11 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.












Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.
Unavailable Players
1 player
Sweden1
Tunisia
No reported absences
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.



