Tunisia vs Netherlands Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tunisia vs Netherlands


Match Preview
The Netherlands enter their final group match against Tunisia with a strong position, having secured 7 points from their first three games, including two wins and a draw. Their performance has been highlighted by a solid goal difference of +6, scoring 10 goals while conceding only 4. In contrast, Tunisia has struggled significantly, finishing at the bottom of Group F with no points and a troubling -10 goal difference after three losses. The tactical acumen of Dutch manager R. Koeman has been evident, as he has managed to instill a competitive spirit in his squad, evident from their recent competitive form, which includes victories over teams like Lithuania and Finland. Tunisia, under the guidance of S. Lamouchi, has faced difficulties, with their last competitive wins coming from friendly matches rather than in crucial tournament fixtures. This lack of competitive success may weigh heavily on their confidence as they face a dominant Netherlands side. With both teams having completed their group stage matches, the stakes are clear: Tunisia will be looking to salvage pride, while the Netherlands aims to solidify their strong showing leading into the knockout stage. However, Tunisia faces challenges with the absence of key players A. Arous and M. Neffati, which could further hinder their performance. One caveat to consider is that Tunisia has not shown strong form in recent competitive matches, making it difficult to gauge their potential for an upset. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has reviewed this fixture through an in-house model that considers aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the tournament context.
About the Teams
Tunisia
Netherlands
Head to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Netherlands leads 1-0)

Tunisia and the Netherlands have met only once in their history, with the Netherlands winning that match 3-1 during the 2026 World Cup. This single competitive meeting is not enough to establish a clear pattern or trend in their encounters. As such, while the Netherlands holds the advantage, it is important to note that this result is based on a very limited sample size and cannot be used to predict future outcomes.
Group F Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 7 | LWWD | |
| 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | LDWD | |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 | LDLW | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 | LLL |
Key Statistics
2026 Season
Tunisia have won 3 of their last 11 matches, drawing 4 and losing 4.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 4D 4L from the last 11 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.













Netherlands have won 2 of their last 3 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 0. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Poland 1-1 and beat Malta 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 3D 1L from the last 11 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.












Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.
Unavailable Players
2 players
Tunisia2
Netherlands
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.



