England vs Croatia Prediction, Tips & Odds
England vs Croatia


Match Preview
England enters this crucial group stage clash against Croatia with a strong competitive record, having secured seven points from their three matches, including two wins and a draw. Their recent form is impressive, with a series of victories, suggesting they are in good shape for this encounter. The team has demonstrated an effective attacking capability, scoring six goals while conceding only two. Under the management of Thomas Tuchel, who has been at the helm since January 2025, England aims to capitalize on their solid tournament history, which includes a quarter-final finish in 2022 and a third-place playoff in 2018. Croatia, on the other hand, currently sits second in the group with six points, having won two matches but suffered one loss. Their recent competitive form has been mixed, with a notable defeat against Belgium in a friendly. However, Croatia’s historical pedigree in international tournaments cannot be overlooked, particularly their impressive run to the finals in 2018. With Zlatko Dalić continuing as manager since 2017, Croatia will look to leverage their experience from past tournaments to secure a favorable result. Both teams come into this match without any reported absentees, which should provide for a fully competitive fixture. However, the stakes are high, as England seeks to solidify their top position in the group, while Croatia aims to secure a vital win to enhance their chances for advancement. It is worth noting that the data on FIFA rankings and qualifying routes is not available, which adds a layer of uncertainty to the prediction. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has utilized an in-house model that examines this fixture through aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the tournament context.
About the Teams
England
Croatia
Head to Head
Last 5 Meetings (England leads 3-1)









In their last five competitive meetings, England has won three times, with one draw and one win for Croatia. The matches took place between 2018 and 2026, with the most recent encounter in June 2026. This record indicates a strong performance by England, particularly in their last three meetings, where they secured victories. Croatia's sole win came in the 2018 World Cup, highlighting that while both teams have had success, England has generally performed better in recent competitive fixtures.
Group L Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | WWWDW | |
| 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 6 | LWWL | |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | LLDW | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | LLL |
Key Statistics
2026 Season
England have won 6 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Congo DR 2-1 and beat Costa Rica 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 1D 2L from the last 14 games (79% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.













Croatia have won 3 of their last 5 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Brazil 3-1 and beat Colombia 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 1D 2L from the last 12 games (75% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.












Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.
Unavailable Players
0 players
England
No reported absences
Croatia
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.



