England vs Croatia Prediction, Tips & Odds

England vs Croatia

World CupGroup Stage - 1
England
#1 · World Cup
WWWWL
4 - 2
AT&T Stadium, Arlington
Referee: Clement Turpin, France
Croatia
#2 · World Cup
WWLLW

Match Preview

England enters this crucial group stage clash against Croatia with a strong competitive record, having secured seven points from their three matches, including two wins and a draw. Their recent form is impressive, with a series of victories, suggesting they are in good shape for this encounter. The team has demonstrated an effective attacking capability, scoring six goals while conceding only two. Under the management of Thomas Tuchel, who has been at the helm since January 2025, England aims to capitalize on their solid tournament history, which includes a quarter-final finish in 2022 and a third-place playoff in 2018. Croatia, on the other hand, currently sits second in the group with six points, having won two matches but suffered one loss. Their recent competitive form has been mixed, with a notable defeat against Belgium in a friendly. However, Croatia’s historical pedigree in international tournaments cannot be overlooked, particularly their impressive run to the finals in 2018. With Zlatko Dalić continuing as manager since 2017, Croatia will look to leverage their experience from past tournaments to secure a favorable result. Both teams come into this match without any reported absentees, which should provide for a fully competitive fixture. However, the stakes are high, as England seeks to solidify their top position in the group, while Croatia aims to secure a vital win to enhance their chances for advancement. It is worth noting that the data on FIFA rankings and qualifying routes is not available, which adds a layer of uncertainty to the prediction. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has utilized an in-house model that examines this fixture through aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the tournament context.

About the Teams

England

ManagerT. Tuchel · since 2025-01-01
Tournament historyLast 3 editions — 2022: Quarter-finals; 2018: Third-place playoff; 2014: Group stage. Best: Third-place playoff.
Recent matches
Wvs Congo DR 2-1World Cup
Wat Panama 2-0World Cup
Wvs Costa Rica 3-0Friendly
Wvs New Zealand 1-0Friendly
Lvs Japan 0-1Friendly
Dvs Uruguay 1-1Friendly

Croatia

ManagerZ. Dalić · since 2017-10-01
Tournament historyLast 3 editions — 2022: Third-place playoff; 2018: Runners-up; 2014: Group stage. Best: Runners-up.
Recent matches
Wvs Ghana 2-1World Cup
Wvs Slovenia 2-1Friendly
Lvs Belgium 0-2Friendly
Lat Brazil 1-3Friendly
Wat Colombia 2-1Friendly
Wat Montenegro 3-2World Cup - Qualification Europe

Head to Head

Last 5 Meetings (England leads 3-1)
3 England1 Draw1 Croatia
17 Jun
England
4-2
Croatia
World Cup
Jun 21
England
1-0
Croatia
Euro Championship
Nov 18
England
2-1
Croatia
UEFA Nations League
Oct 18
Croatia
0-0
England
UEFA Nations League
Jul 18
Croatia
2-1
England
World Cup

In their last five competitive meetings, England has won three times, with one draw and one win for Croatia. The matches took place between 2018 and 2026, with the most recent encounter in June 2026. This record indicates a strong performance by England, particularly in their last three meetings, where they secured victories. Croatia's sole win came in the 2018 World Cup, highlighting that while both teams have had success, England has generally performed better in recent competitive fixtures.

Group L Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
England
32106247
WWWDW
2
Croatia
32015506
LWWL
3
Ghana
31112204
LLDW
4
Panama
300304-40
LLL

Key Statistics

2026 Season
EnglandCroatia
2.14Goals p.g.2.17
0.43Goals conceded p.g.1
71%Clean sheets33%
79%Win rate75%
2.57Avg goals in match3.17
1.80xG per game2.01
0.06xGA per game-1.11
68%Possession %66%
5.9Shots on target / game5.6
7.7Corners per game7.8
England
Recent Form

England have won 6 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Congo DR 2-1 and beat Costa Rica 3-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 11W 1D 2L from the last 14 games (79% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: EnglandAll competitions
01 Jul
England
2-1
Congo DR
World Cup
27 Jun
Panama
0-2
England
World Cup
10 Jun
England
3-0
Costa Rica
Friendlies
06 Jun
England
1-0
New Zealand
Friendlies
31 Mar
England
0-1
Japan
Friendlies
27 Mar
England
1-1
Uruguay
Friendlies
11
Win
79%
1
Draw
7%
2
Lost
14%
Croatia
Recent Form

Croatia have won 3 of their last 5 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Brazil 3-1 and beat Colombia 1-2.

Overall, the wider run reads 9W 1D 2L from the last 12 games (75% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: CroatiaAll competitions
27 Jun
Croatia
2-1
Ghana
World Cup
07 Jun
Croatia
2-1
Slovenia
Friendlies
02 Jun
Croatia
0-2
Belgium
Friendlies
01 Apr
Brazil
3-1
Croatia
Friendlies
26 Mar
Colombia
1-2
Croatia
Friendlies
Nov 25
Montenegro
2-3
Croatia
World Cup - Qualification Europe
9
Win
75%
1
Draw
8%
2
Lost
17%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.

Unavailable Players

0 players

England

No reported absences

Croatia

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

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OUR PREDICTION
England to Win

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.

England vs Croatia Predictions, Stats, H2H - 17 Jun 2026 | The Daily Punt