Spain vs Saudi Arabia Prediction, Tips & Odds

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

World CupGroup Stage - 2
Spain
#1 · World Cup
DDW?D
VS
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Saudi Arabia
#3 · World Cup
WLLLD

Match Preview

Spain enters this group stage match against Saudi Arabia with a significant advantage in tournament pedigree and experience. Having participated in all three of the last editions of the World Cup, Spain has played 11 matches, securing three wins, five draws, and three losses while scoring a total of 20 goals. In contrast, Saudi Arabia has made it to two of the last three tournaments, with a record of two wins and four losses from six matches, scoring five goals. This historical context suggests a disparity in competitive experience at the highest level. In terms of recent form, Spain has shown resilience, with their last eight competitive matches yielding a mix of results, including three wins and five draws. Their ability to score 20 goals across their recent competitive outings indicates a potentially strong offensive capability. On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has struggled, with limited success in their recent matches, including three losses in their last four competitive games. This trend could hinder their confidence heading into a match against a traditionally strong side like Spain. Both teams come into this match without reported absentees, which may help maintain squad depth and tactical flexibility. However, it’s important to note that Saudi Arabia's recent form raises questions about their readiness to compete against a side like Spain. The stakes are high in this group stage encounter, as both teams aim to secure crucial points to enhance their chances of advancing to the knockout phase. While Spain's historical advantage and competitive form suggest they may be favored, the unpredictability of tournament football always leaves room for surprises. The SureTipsPro Analysis Team has evaluated this fixture using an in-house model that analyzes bookmaker probabilities and tournament context, but no specific model output is available for this match.

About the Teams

Spain

ManagerLuis de la Fuente · since 2023-01-01
Tournament historyLast 3 editions — 2022: Round of 16; 2018: Round of 16; 2014: Group stage. Best: Round of 16.
Recent matches
Dvs Iraq 1-1Friendly
Dvs Egypt 0-0Friendly
Wvs Serbia 3-0Friendly
?vs Argentina CONMEBOL - UEFA Finalissima
Dvs Türkiye 2-2World Cup - Qualification Europe
Wat Georgia 4-0World Cup - Qualification Europe

Saudi Arabia

ManagerH. Renard · since 2024-10-01
Qualifying1st in Group B, 1W-1D-0L, 4 pts
Tournament historyLast 3 editions — 2022: Group stage; 2018: Group stage. Best: Group stage.
Recent matches
Wat Puerto Rico 3-0Friendly
Lat Ecuador 1-2Friendly
Lat Serbia 1-2Friendly
Lvs Egypt 0-4Friendly
Dvs United Arab Emirates 0-0Arab Cup
Lvs Jordan 0-1Arab Cup

Betting Predictions

How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.

Match Result
Spain Win76%1.10
Draw12%9.05
Saudi Arabia Win11%23.91
BTTS
Both Teams to Score: No
1.4062.7%

Spain have kept a clean sheet in 70% of matches. Saudi Arabia average 1.1 goals per game.

Over/Under Goals
Over 2.5 Goals
1.4658.0%

Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.

Correct Score
Spain 2-0 Saudi Arabia
5.4118.6%

The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.6% probability.

Asian Handicap
Spain -0.0
1.0170%

Spain have been the stronger side, winning 60% of their matches.

CORRECT SCOREMost likely outcomes
2-0
5.41
18.6%
3-0
5.62
17.9%
1-0
7.31
13.8%
4-0
7.54
13.3%
2-1
11.30
9.0%
3-1
11.90
8.5%

Our model projects a 2-0 Spain win as the most likely scoreline at 18.6% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Spain clean sheets, in line with their 70% clean-sheet rate this season.

ASIAN HANDICAPLines & prices
Spain
-0.0
1.01
Saudi Arabia
+0.0
20.00

Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Spain are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.

Best Betting Odds

Spain vs Saudi Arabia
Bookmaker1X2O/U 2.5BTTS
1X2OverUnderYesNo
10Bet
1.117.7025.001.482.622.701.40
Marathonbet
1.089.1026.001.432.482.801.37
Betfair
1.108.5026.001.452.552.751.40
Pinnacle
1.0910.0420.961.432.65
SBO
1.108.4018.00
William Hill
1.109.0023.002.751.40
Bet365
1.119.0021.001.502.622.751.40
1xBet
1.0910.6030.001.432.482.801.38
Unibet
1.119.5026.001.442.602.751.40
Betano
1.138.2521.001.502.672.671.44
BetVictor
1.089.5026.001.452.752.801.40

Goals Probability

Avg. bookmaker odds
Over 0.5 Goals
94.2%
Over 1.5 Goals
83.1%
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
Over 3.5 Goals
43.2%

Double Chance

Bet covers two outcomes
1XSpain or Draw
89%1.01
12Spain or Saudi Arabia
88%1.06
X2Draw or Saudi Arabia
24%6.48

Head to Head

Loading head-to-head data...

Group H Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
Spain
00000000
2
Cape Verde Islands
00000000
3
Saudi Arabia
00000000
4
Uruguay
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Key Statistics

2026 Season
SpainSaudi Arabia
2.5Goals p.g.1.09
0.3Goals conceded p.g.1.36
70%Clean sheets18%
60%Win rate36%
2.8Avg goals in match2.45
3.25xG per game
69%Possession %53%
8.4Shots on target / game1.0
7.1Corners per game2.0
Spain
Recent Form

Spain have won 3 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Iraq 1-1 and drew with Egypt 0-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 6W 3D 0L from the last 10 games (60% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: SpainAll competitions
04 Jun
Spain
1-1
Iraq
Friendlies
31 Mar
Spain
0-0
Egypt
Friendlies
27 Mar
Spain
3-0
Serbia
Friendlies
27 Mar
Spain
-
Argentina
CONMEBOL - UEFA Finalissima
Nov 25
Spain
2-2
Türkiye
World Cup - Qualification Europe
Nov 25
Georgia
0-4
Spain
World Cup - Qualification Europe
6
Win
60%
3
Draw
30%
0
Lost
0%
Saudi Arabia
Recent Form

Saudi Arabia have won 3 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Saudi Arabia 0-3 and lost to Saudi Arabia 2-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 4W 1D 6L from the last 11 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: Saudi ArabiaAll competitions
05 Jun
Puerto Rico
0-3
Saudi Arabia
Friendlies
31 May
Ecuador
2-1
Saudi Arabia
Friendlies
31 Mar
Serbia
2-1
Saudi Arabia
Friendlies
27 Mar
Saudi Arabia
0-4
Egypt
Friendlies
Dec 25
Saudi Arabia
0-0
United Arab Emirates
Arab Cup
Dec 25
Saudi Arabia
0-1
Jordan
Arab Cup
4
Win
36%
1
Draw
9%
6
Lost
55%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Spain

No reported absences

Saudi Arabia

No reported absences

Betting Strategy

High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.

High Probability
Spain Win1.10 (76.3%)
Over 2.5 Goals1.46 (58%)
BTTS No1.40 (62.7%)
Value Bets
Under 2.5 Goals2.60 (42%)
Both Teams Score2.75 (37.3%)
Speculative
Draw9.05 (12.4%)
Saudi Arabia Win23.91 (11.3%)

Yellow Card Prediction

The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.

Corner Prediction

Spain have averaged 7.1 corners per match at home; Saudi Arabia 2.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.

Player Stats Bet

Spain have generated 3.25 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 60% of them. They put 8.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Spain player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.

What's Your Prediction?

Pick the result you expect

The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.

Spain vs Saudi Arabia Predictions, Stats, H2H - 21 Jun 2026 | The Daily Punt