France vs Senegal Prediction, Tips & Odds
France vs Senegal


Match Preview
France enters this match as the dominant force in Group I, having secured all nine points from their three matches with a strong goal difference of +8. Their recent competitive form reflects this success, with impressive victories over teams like Sweden and Ukraine, showcasing their attacking prowess and solid defensive structure. Under the experienced management of Didier Deschamps, who has led the team since 2012, France's pedigree in international tournaments speaks for itself, with their last three World Cup appearances yielding a final, a win, and a quarter-final finish. Senegal, on the other hand, finds themselves in a challenging position with only three points from their three group matches, placing them third in the group. Their recent form is mixed, with a notable 5-0 victory against Iraq but also a disappointing 0-3 loss to Morocco, highlighting inconsistencies that could hinder their performance against a formidable opponent like France. Under manager Jean Koto, Senegal's best World Cup showing was reaching the Round of 16, and they will need to tap into that potential to compete effectively in this fixture. Both teams have no reported absentees, which should allow them to field their best players. However, France's strong competitive form and historical success in tournaments could give them an edge in this encounter. With both teams having completed their group matches, the stakes are lower for France, who are already through, while Senegal will aim to salvage pride and end their campaign on a high note. It is important to note that the analysis is based on the recent competitive data available, and the unique dynamics of tournament football can lead to unpredictable outcomes. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has utilized an in-house model that assesses the fixture through aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the context of the tournament.
About the Teams
France
Senegal
Head to Head
Last 1 Meetings (France leads 1-0)

France and Senegal have met once in competitive matches, with France winning that encounter 3-1 during the 2026 World Cup. Since there is only one competitive meeting, it is not possible to ascertain a pattern from this limited sample. The most recent match provides a historical context, but it does not offer tactical insights relevant to any future fixtures.
Group I Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 9 | LWWWW | |
| 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | LWWLW | |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3 | LWLL | |
| 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 | LLL |
Key Statistics
2026 Season
France have won 8 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Morocco 2-0 and beat Sweden 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 1D 1L from the last 17 games (88% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.













Senegal have won 2 of their last 4 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Saudi Arabia 0-0 and lost to USA 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 2D 2L from the last 12 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.












Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.
Unavailable Players
0 players
France
No reported absences
Senegal
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.


