France vs Senegal Prediction, Tips & Odds

France vs Senegal

World CupGroup Stage - 1
France
#1 · World Cup
WWWWW
3 - 1
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford
Referee: Alireza Faghani, Australia
Senegal
#3 · World Cup
WDLWW

Match Preview

France enters this match as the dominant force in Group I, having secured all nine points from their three matches with a strong goal difference of +8. Their recent competitive form reflects this success, with impressive victories over teams like Sweden and Ukraine, showcasing their attacking prowess and solid defensive structure. Under the experienced management of Didier Deschamps, who has led the team since 2012, France's pedigree in international tournaments speaks for itself, with their last three World Cup appearances yielding a final, a win, and a quarter-final finish. Senegal, on the other hand, finds themselves in a challenging position with only three points from their three group matches, placing them third in the group. Their recent form is mixed, with a notable 5-0 victory against Iraq but also a disappointing 0-3 loss to Morocco, highlighting inconsistencies that could hinder their performance against a formidable opponent like France. Under manager Jean Koto, Senegal's best World Cup showing was reaching the Round of 16, and they will need to tap into that potential to compete effectively in this fixture. Both teams have no reported absentees, which should allow them to field their best players. However, France's strong competitive form and historical success in tournaments could give them an edge in this encounter. With both teams having completed their group matches, the stakes are lower for France, who are already through, while Senegal will aim to salvage pride and end their campaign on a high note. It is important to note that the analysis is based on the recent competitive data available, and the unique dynamics of tournament football can lead to unpredictable outcomes. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has utilized an in-house model that assesses the fixture through aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the context of the tournament.

About the Teams

France

ManagerD. Deschamps · since 2012-07-01
Tournament historyLast 3 editions — 2022: Final; 2018: Winners; 2014: Quarter-finals. Best: Final.
Recent matches
Wvs Morocco 2-0World Cup
Wat Paraguay 1-0World Cup
Wvs Sweden 3-0World Cup
Wat Norway 4-1World Cup
Wvs Iraq 3-0World Cup
Wvs Senegal 3-1World Cup

Senegal

ManagerJ. Koto · since 2021-07-01
Tournament historyLast 3 editions — 2022: Round of 16; 2018: Group stage. Best: Round of 16.
Recent matches
Wvs Iraq 5-0World Cup
Dat Saudi Arabia 0-0Friendly
Lat USA 2-3Friendly
Wvs Gambia 3-1Friendly
Wvs Peru 2-0Friendly
Lvs Morocco 0-3Africa Cup of Nations

Head to Head

Last 1 Meetings (France leads 1-0)
1 France0 Draw0 Senegal
16 Jun
France
3-1
Senegal
World Cup

France and Senegal have met once in competitive matches, with France winning that encounter 3-1 during the 2026 World Cup. Since there is only one competitive meeting, it is not possible to ascertain a pattern from this limited sample. The most recent match provides a historical context, but it does not offer tactical insights relevant to any future fixtures.

Group I Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
France
330010289
LWWWW
2
Norway
32018716
LWWLW
3
Senegal
31028623
LWLL
4
Iraq
3003112-110
LLL

Key Statistics

2026 Season
FranceSenegal
2.53Goals p.g.2
0.65Goals conceded p.g.0.75
47%Clean sheets58%
88%Win rate67%
3.18Avg goals in match2.75
2.28xG per game3.10
-0.06xGA per game-0.09
61%Possession %61%
6.7Shots on target / game7.5
5.9Corners per game7.0
France
Recent Form

France have won 8 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Morocco 2-0 and beat Sweden 3-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 15W 1D 1L from the last 17 games (88% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: FranceAll competitions
09 Jul
France
2-0
Morocco
World Cup
04 Jul
Paraguay
0-1
France
World Cup
30 Jun
France
3-0
Sweden
World Cup
26 Jun
Norway
1-4
France
World Cup
22 Jun
France
3-0
Iraq
World Cup
16 Jun
France
3-1
Senegal
World Cup
15
Win
88%
1
Draw
6%
1
Lost
6%
Senegal
Recent Form

Senegal have won 2 of their last 4 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Saudi Arabia 0-0 and lost to USA 3-2.

Overall, the wider run reads 8W 2D 2L from the last 12 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: SenegalAll competitions
26 Jun
Senegal
5-0
Iraq
World Cup
09 Jun
Saudi Arabia
0-0
Senegal
Friendlies
31 May
USA
3-2
Senegal
Friendlies
31 Mar
Senegal
3-1
Gambia
Friendlies
28 Mar
Senegal
2-0
Peru
Friendlies
18 Jan
Senegal
0-3
Morocco
Africa Cup of Nations
8
Win
67%
2
Draw
17%
2
Lost
17%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.

Unavailable Players

0 players

France

No reported absences

Senegal

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

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OUR PREDICTION
2.5 Goals Over

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.

France vs Senegal Predictions, Stats, H2H - 16 Jun 2026 | The Daily Punt