Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn Prediction, Tips & Odds
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn
Match Preview
The model favours Flora Tallinn to win against Kuressaare, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Flora currently sits in second place in the Meistriliiga, boasting an impressive record of 10 wins from 16 matches, along with a strong goal difference of +15. Their ability to score, with 33 goals to date, highlights their attacking prowess, which will be a significant factor in this matchup. Kuressaare, on the other hand, finds itself in ninth place with a record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses. Their season has been challenging, as indicated by their goal difference of -9. While they have shown some resilience in their last five matches, with two wins and two draws, they still struggle to find consistent form, which could hinder their chances against a stronger opponent. The model indicates a high win probability for Flora Tallinn, reflecting their superior league position and recent form. However, Kuressaare's potential to pull off an upset should not be entirely dismissed, especially if they can leverage home advantage. The full method of this prediction is explained in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.8% probability.
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 69% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-2 Flora Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 14.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Flora Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 8.25 | 4.75 | 1.30 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 1.70 | 1.95 | |
| 8.90 | 5.05 | 1.25 | 1.40 | 2.56 | 1.66 | 2.04 | |
| 8.00 | 5.00 | 1.29 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 8.04 | 5.51 | 1.30 | 1.42 | 2.73 | — | — | |
| 6.86 | 4.94 | 1.26 | — | — | — | — | |
| 8.50 | 4.80 | 1.29 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 6.50 | 4.50 | 1.36 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 9.25 | 5.05 | 1.26 | 1.40 | 2.56 | 1.66 | 2.07 | |
| 7.00 | 4.70 | 1.34 | 1.48 | 2.43 | 1.65 | 2.04 | |
Betano | 6.70 | 4.75 | 1.33 | — | — | — | — |
BetVictor | 6.00 | 4.33 | 1.25 | 1.33 | 2.20 | 1.55 | 1.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flora Tallinn leads 9-0)Flora Tallinn has a dominant head-to-head record against Kuressaare, winning 9 out of the last 10 matches, with 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a clear advantage for Flora Tallinn, as they have secured several heavy wins, including a 5-0 victory and multiple matches with a margin of at least two goals. Kuressaare's lone draw came in a high-scoring match, but they have not won against Flora Tallinn in this span. The lack of wins for Kuressaare highlights a significant struggle in this fixture.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 17 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 45 | 13 | 32 | 43 | DWWWW |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 16 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 18 | 15 | 30 | LWLWW |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 30 | DLDLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 28 | WWDDL |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 23 | WWDLW |
| 6 |  Vaprus | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 31 | -11 | 20 | LDWLW |
| 8 |  Laagri | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 19 | LLLWL |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 17 | DWDWL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 10 | LDLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonKuressaare have won 5 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Kuressaare 2-1 and lost to Kuressaare 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 3D 13L from the last 23 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Flora Tallinn have won 10 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Flora Tallinn 0-3 and beat FC Levadia Tallinn 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 1D 8L from the last 29 games (69% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersKuressaare
No reported absences
Flora Tallinn
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Jaanovits has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Jaanovits to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Kuressaare average 1.3 goals per match at home; Flora Tallinn 2.1 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 69% of their matches and averaging 2.1 goals per game. Flora Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.