Tre Fiori vs Larne Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tre Fiori vs Larne
Match Preview
The model favours Tre Fiori to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Tre Fiori enters this fixture with a solid recent form, having secured three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This positive trend suggests a team that is finding its rhythm, and their ability to score consistently will be crucial against their opponents. On the other hand, Larne's form has been more mixed, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. While they have shown resilience, their inconsistency may hinder their chances against a Tre Fiori side that is currently more cohesive and confident in their playing style. The model output indicates a strong probability of victory for Tre Fiori, with a projected score of 2-1 and a key market percentage favouring them. However, one potential caveat is that if Larne can tighten their defensive performance and capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities, they could disrupt Tre Fiori's plans. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season, as analyzed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Larne have been the stronger side, winning 58% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-2 Larne win as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Larne are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tre Fiori vs Larne| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 6.25 | 4.60 | 1.41 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 1.70 | 1.95 | |
| 10.25 | 5.35 | 1.27 | 1.47 | 2.38 | 1.86 | 1.82 | |
| 6.50 | 5.50 | 1.30 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 8.50 | 5.00 | 1.25 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 6.25 | 4.10 | 1.40 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 7.55 | 4.65 | 1.39 | 1.53 | 2.22 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
| 8.50 | 5.00 | 1.25 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
Betano | 6.70 | 4.55 | 1.40 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 1.72 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 7.50 | 4.80 | 1.40 | 1.56 | 2.22 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonTre Fiori have won 4 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include lost to La Fiorita 1-3 and drew with Pennarossa 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 3D 1L from the last 10 games (60% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Larne have won 3 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include beat Larne 1-2 and drew with Stranraer 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 3D 2L from the last 12 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTre Fiori
No reported absences
Larne
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Gasparyan has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Gasparyan to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Tre Fiori average 1.7 goals per match at home; Larne 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Larne have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 58% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Larne player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
