Vardar Skopje vs KuPS Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vardar Skopje vs KuPS
Match Preview
The model favours Vardar Skopje to win against KuPS, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Vardar Skopje has shown exceptional form recently, winning all of their last five matches. This perfect run not only highlights their strong performance but also suggests a team in excellent shape heading into this crucial fixture. Their ability to maintain a winning streak indicates a high level of confidence and momentum, which could be pivotal in this knockout stage. On the other hand, KuPS has been more inconsistent in their recent performances, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches. While they remain unbeaten in this period, the lack of victories compared to Vardar's recent form could hinder their chances. KuPS will need to elevate their game significantly to compete against a team that is currently firing on all cylinders. The model gives Vardar Skopje a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market statistic to note is the expected goals differential, which favours Vardar in this matchup. However, if KuPS can capitalize on set pieces or defensive lapses, they could pose a threat. For a complete breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.3% probability.
Vardar Skopje have been the stronger side, winning 69% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Vardar Skopje are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vardar Skopje vs KuPS| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.28 | 3.35 | 2.82 | 1.93 | 1.80 | 1.70 | 1.95 | |
| 2.31 | 3.38 | 2.91 | 1.93 | 1.84 | 1.71 | 1.99 | |
| 2.25 | 3.25 | 2.80 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 2.25 | 3.37 | 2.90 | 1.94 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.04 | 2.73 | 1.96 | 1.82 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.70 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.38 | 3.38 | 2.84 | 1.92 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.04 | |
| 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.95 | 1.89 | 1.79 | 1.70 | 2.00 | |
| 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.90 | 1.91 | 1.83 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.70 | 1.93 | 1.82 | 1.75 | 1.98 |
BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.90 | 1.88 | 1.79 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (KuPS leads 1-0)In the head-to-head record, Vardar Skopje has not secured a win against KuPS, with KuPS winning 1 match. The lone fixture between these teams ended in a 2-0 victory for KuPS, indicating a decisive win rather than a closely contested match. This suggests that KuPS has had the upper hand historically, and Vardar Skopje has yet to find a way to overcome them in their encounters.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonVardar Skopje have won 5 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include lost to KuPS 0-2 and beat Shkendija 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 2D 2L from the last 13 games (69% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
KuPS have won 5 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 0. Their recent away fixtures include beat KuPS 0-2 and beat HJK Helsinki 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 4D 0L from the last 12 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVardar Skopje
No reported absences
KuPS
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
K. Saglam has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by K. Saglam to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Vardar Skopje average 2.5 goals per match at home; KuPS 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Vardar Skopje have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 69% of their matches and averaging 2.5 goals per game. Vardar Skopje player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
