Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme
Match Preview
The model favours Kalju Nomme to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Nõmme United. Kalju currently sits in third place in the Meistriliiga standings, showcasing a strong season with nine wins and a goal difference of +15. Their defensive record has been impressive, having conceded only 14 goals across 17 matches, which highlights their stability at the back. Despite a recent dip in form with only one win in their last five matches, they remain a formidable opponent. In contrast, Nõmme United is struggling in seventh place, with a record of six wins and ten losses. Their recent form has seen them secure only two victories in their last five matches, indicating ongoing challenges. With a goal difference of -7, they have been more vulnerable defensively, conceding 40 goals so far this season. This inconsistency may hinder their ability to compete effectively against a higher-ranked team like Kalju. The model gives Kalju Nomme a win probability of 60%, with the projected score being 2-1. One caveat to consider is that if Nõmme United can exploit any defensive lapses from Kalju, they might pull off an upset. The full method behind this prediction leverages an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season, providing a comprehensive analysis. This insight comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.1% probability.
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Kalju Nomme win as the most likely scoreline at 14.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Kalju Nomme are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nõmme United vs Kalju Nomme| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.53 | 1.42 | 2.70 | 1.45 | 2.40 | |
| 4.80 | 4.25 | 1.50 | 1.38 | 2.62 | 1.47 | 2.42 | |
| 4.75 | 4.40 | 1.50 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| 4.69 | 4.39 | 1.57 | 1.42 | 2.73 | — | — | |
| 4.41 | 3.90 | 1.51 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.57 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 4.75 | 4.00 | 1.53 | 1.44 | 2.62 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 4.96 | 4.25 | 1.51 | 1.38 | 2.62 | 1.47 | 2.47 | |
| 4.80 | 4.25 | 1.52 | 1.37 | 2.70 | 1.44 | 2.48 | |
| 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.57 | 1.40 | 2.63 | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
Betano | 4.50 | 4.05 | 1.57 | — | — | — | — |
BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.70 | 1.44 | 1.33 | 2.25 | 1.36 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Kalju Nomme leads 3-0)In their last five encounters, Kalju Nomme has won three times, with two matches ending in draws, while Nõmme United has yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a one-sided trend, with Kalju Nomme achieving heavy victories, including a notable 7-1 win and a 4-0 win, which highlight their dominance in these fixtures. The two draws were both low-scoring, ending 1-1 and 0-0, suggesting that Nõmme United has struggled to find the net against their rivals. Nõmme United has not won against Kalju Nomme in recent matchups, with their last victory over them not recorded in this sample.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 17 | 13 | 4 | 0 | 45 | 13 | 32 | 43 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 16 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 33 | 18 | 15 | 30 | LWLWW |
| 3 | Kalju Nomme | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 29 | 14 | 15 | 30 | DLDLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 28 | WWDDL |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 23 | WWDLW |
| 6 |  Vaprus | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 31 | -11 | 20 | LDWLW |
| 7 | Nõmme United | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 19 | WLWLL |
| 8 |  Laagri | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 19 | LLLWL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 17 | DWDWL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 10 | LDLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNõmme United have won 5 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Flora Tallinn 0-4 and lost to Paide 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 2D 12L from the last 23 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Kalju Nomme have won 8 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Kalju Nomme 3-1 and beat Kuressaare 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 4D 6L from the last 22 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNõmme United
No reported absences
Kalju Nomme
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Lorenz has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Lorenz to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Nõmme United average 2.3 goals per match at home; Kalju Nomme 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 55% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Kalju Nomme player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.