Norway vs France Prediction, Tips & Odds
Norway vs France
Match Preview
France enters this matchup against Norway with a strong tournament pedigree, having reached the final in the last World Cup and won it in 2018. Their recent competitive form, although mixed with some friendly results, displays a solid foundation, including wins against teams like Brazil and Ukraine. Manager Didier Deschamps has maintained a consistent tactical identity since 2012, which adds to their resilience and experience in high-pressure situations. Norway, on the other hand, has faced challenges in recent years, missing the last three World Cup editions. While they have shown flashes of potential in friendlies and some competitive matches, their overall lack of major tournament experience could be a disadvantage. Manager Ståle Solbakken has been in charge since 2021, but the team may still be in the process of establishing itself on the international stage. In terms of stakes, this group stage match is crucial for both teams, as a win would significantly boost their chances of advancing. With the group stage yet to begin, both sides will be eager to make a strong impression. However, France's historical success and experience in tournament play likely give them the edge in this encounter. One caveat to consider is the limited recent competitive data for both teams, which could affect their readiness. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has assessed this fixture using an in-house model that analyzes aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the context of the tournament.
About the Teams
Norway
France
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (5.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
France have been the stronger side, winning 85% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-2 France win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. France are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Norway vs France| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 6.40 | 4.90 | 1.41 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 7.50 | 5.60 | 1.40 | 1.47 | 2.55 | 1.73 | 2.11 | |
| 7.00 | 5.00 | 1.36 | 1.50 | 2.63 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 7.50 | 5.65 | 1.40 | 1.53 | 2.58 | — | — | |
| 6.90 | 5.20 | 1.39 | 1.68 | 2.28 | — | — | |
| 6.50 | 5.00 | 1.36 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 6.50 | 5.50 | 1.40 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 7.38 | 5.61 | 1.42 | 1.47 | 2.55 | 1.72 | 2.03 | |
| 7.00 | 5.40 | 1.38 | 1.46 | 2.63 | 1.64 | 2.12 | |
| 6.50 | 4.80 | 1.36 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 1.70 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 7.40 | 5.20 | 1.44 | 1.53 | 2.57 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 4.65 | 4.25 | 1.68 | 1.67 | 2.22 | 1.70 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.36 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (France leads 1-0)In the only competitive meeting between Norway and France, France emerged victorious with a 4-1 win in June 2026. With just one match in their head-to-head record, it is too small a sample to identify any patterns or trends. The result from this recent encounter may provide some tactical context, but there is insufficient historical data to draw definitive conclusions about the matchup between these two teams.
Group I Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Norway | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Senegal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3 | LWLL |
| 4 |  Iraq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 | LLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonNorway have won 5 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Norway 1-4 and beat Norway 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 3D 2L from the last 13 games (62% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
France have won 6 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 0. Their recent away fixtures include beat Norway 1-4 and beat Colombia 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 1D 1L from the last 13 games (85% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNorway4-2-3-1Confirmed
France4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersNorway
No reported absences
France
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Oliver has averaged 2.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Norway have averaged 5.1 corners per match at home; France 6.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
France have generated 2.49 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 85% of them. They put 7.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. France player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
