Paide vs Vaprus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Paide vs Vaprus
Match Preview
The model favours Paide to win against Vaprus, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Paide currently holds the 4th position in the Meistriliiga standings with 28 points from 17 matches, showcasing a solid campaign with 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses. Their goal difference of +5 highlights their ability to score more than they concede, supported by an average of 1.53 goals per game. Paide's recent form includes two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches, indicating a level of consistency that could prove crucial in this fixture. On the other hand, Vaprus sits in 6th place with 20 points from 16 matches, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses. Their goal difference of -11 suggests defensive vulnerabilities, having conceded 31 goals while scoring only 20. Although Vaprus managed to secure two wins in their last five matches, their overall form has been inconsistent, which may hinder their ability to challenge Paide effectively. The model output suggests a win probability of 55% for Paide, with Vaprus having a 25% chance of victory. One key market percentage indicates that the odds are leaning towards Paide at approximately 1.80. However, an honest caveat is that if Vaprus can exploit any defensive lapses from Paide, they could potentially pull off an upset. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model focused on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.
Paide have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Paide win as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Paide clean sheets, in line with their 23% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Paide are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Paide vs Vaprus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.45 | 4.50 | 5.40 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.65 | 2.05 | |
| 1.39 | 4.45 | 6.00 | 1.46 | 2.38 | 1.64 | 2.07 | |
| 1.40 | 4.60 | 5.50 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.42 | 4.71 | 6.18 | 1.49 | 2.52 | — | — | |
| 1.41 | 3.93 | 5.51 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.20 | 5.80 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
| 1.42 | 4.33 | 5.50 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.40 | 4.45 | 6.22 | 1.47 | 2.35 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 1.46 | 4.25 | 5.60 | 1.54 | 2.28 | 1.63 | 2.05 | |
| 1.40 | 4.20 | 5.75 | 1.44 | 2.45 | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.45 | 4.20 | 5.40 | 1.52 | 2.20 | — | — |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 3.90 | 5.25 | 1.41 | 2.04 | 1.53 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Paide leads 7-3)In the last 10 matches between Paide and Vaprus, Paide has won 7 times while Vaprus has secured 3 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable trend for Paide, with several of their wins coming by a margin of two or more goals, such as the 3-0 and 2-0 results. Vaprus has managed to score in their victories, but they have often been narrow, such as their 3-2 win. Notably, Vaprus last won against Paide in March 2026, suggesting a potential struggle to maintain competitiveness in this matchup.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 49 | 16 | 33 | 46 | WLDWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 18 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 36 | WWLWL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 33 | 16 | 17 | 34 | WDDLD |
| 4 | Paide | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 32 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 21 | -1 | 26 | WWWDL |
| 6 | Vaprus | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 23 | LWLDW |
| 8 |  Laagri | 18 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 19 | LLLLW |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 17 | 30 | -13 | 17 | LLDWD |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 18 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 12 | 43 | -31 | 10 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPaide have won 11 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Paide 3-1 and beat Paide 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 8D 8L from the last 31 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vaprus have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Vaprus 3-1 and drew with Tammeka 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 3D 15L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPaide
No reported absences
Vaprus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Maalinn has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by R. Maalinn to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Paide average 1.8 goals per match at home; Vaprus 1.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Paide have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 48% of their matches and averaging 1.8 goals per game. Paide player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
