Senegal vs Iraq Prediction, Tips & Odds
Senegal vs Iraq
Match Preview
Senegal enters this World Cup group stage match against Iraq with a recent competitive form that showcases a mix of results, including some strong performances against notable teams. Their last competitive outings include a win against Egypt and a solid victory over Gambia. This experience could prove beneficial as they aim to advance from Group I, where every point is crucial. Iraq, on the other hand, arrives with a more limited tournament history, having not qualified for the last three editions. However, they have shown resilience in their recent matches, including a draw against Spain and victories over teams like Andorra and Bolivia. Their competitive edge and ability to hold their own against higher-ranked opposition might give them confidence heading into this encounter. Both teams have no reported absentees, which allows them to field their strongest lineups. Senegal's manager, J. Koto, has been with the team since mid-2021 and has experience in high-pressure situations, while Iraq's G. Arnold, who took over in 2025, is relatively new to the role. The tactical approaches of both managers will be pivotal in this matchup. As the stakes are high in this opening match of the group stage, both teams will be eager to secure points. The outcome will set the tone for their tournament ambitions. However, with limited recent competitive data and the neutral venue, the unpredictability of tournament football remains a significant factor. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has employed an in-house model that interprets fixture data through aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the tournament context to assess potential outcomes.
About the Teams
Senegal
Iraq
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Senegal have kept a clean sheet in 58% of matches. Iraq average 1.0 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.4% probability.
Senegal have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Senegal win as the most likely scoreline at 16.4% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Senegal clean sheets, in line with their 58% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Senegal are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Senegal vs Iraq| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.22 | 6.00 | 11.50 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 1.26 | 6.65 | 12.25 | 1.50 | 2.46 | 2.05 | 1.77 | |
| 1.25 | 6.50 | 11.00 | 1.53 | 2.50 | 2.15 | 1.67 | |
| 1.26 | 7.00 | 11.00 | 1.56 | 2.44 | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 6.60 | 12.00 | 1.87 | 1.95 | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 6.00 | 10.00 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 1.25 | 6.50 | 11.00 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 1.26 | 6.82 | 12.80 | 1.53 | 2.39 | 2.12 | 1.66 | |
| 1.22 | 6.75 | 12.50 | 1.53 | 2.48 | 2.07 | 1.67 | |
| 1.22 | 5.75 | 10.00 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 2.05 | 1.73 | |
Betano | 1.29 | 6.20 | 11.50 | 1.57 | 2.50 | 2.05 | 1.72 |
Superbet | 1.24 | 6.60 | 11.00 | 1.53 | 2.52 | 2.10 | 1.71 |
BetVictor | 1.20 | 6.50 | 13.00 | 1.52 | 2.32 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Senegal leads 1-0)In their only competitive meeting, Senegal has won against Iraq, with a record of 1 win and 0 draws or losses. This match took place recently in June 2026, where Senegal secured a dominant 5-0 victory. With only one competitive fixture between these two nations, it is difficult to assert any trends or patterns from this limited data. The result, however, indicates a significant advantage for Senegal in this encounter.
Group I Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  France | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 9 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Norway | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | WWLWW |
| 3 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3 | LWLL |
| 4 | Iraq | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 | LLL |
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSenegal have won 6 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Iraq 5-0 and beat Gambia 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 2D 2L from the last 12 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Iraq have won 1 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Spain 1-1 and lost to Jordan 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 3D 3L from the last 11 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSenegal4-2-3-1Confirmed
Iraq4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
1 playerSenegal1
Iraq
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Taylor has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Senegal have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; Iraq 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Senegal have generated 3.10 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 67% of them. They put 7.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Senegal player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
