USA vs Paraguay Prediction, Tips & Odds
USA vs Paraguay


Match Preview
The USA enters this match against Paraguay with a strong position in Group D, having secured 6 points from three matches, including two wins and a loss. Their goal-scoring ability has been notable, netting 8 goals while conceding 4. The USA's recent competitive form shows a mix of results, but they have demonstrated their attacking prowess, particularly in their last competitive meeting with Paraguay, where they won 4-1. Under the guidance of manager M. Pochettino, who has been at the helm since September 2024, the team aims to build on their recent performances. Paraguay, on the other hand, finds itself third in the group with 4 points, having won once and drawn once from their three matches. Their goal tally of 2 goals scored against 4 conceded indicates struggles in both defence and attack. While they have shown resilience in their recent matches, including a 1-1 draw against Germany, their overall tournament history reveals a lack of recent appearances, which may impact their confidence. Manager G. Alfaro took charge in August 2024, and his task will be to galvanize the squad for this crucial clash. The stakes are high for both teams, as they look to solidify their standing in the group. The USA is in a favorable position to advance, while Paraguay needs a positive result to keep their hopes alive. A caveat to consider is the limited competitive data for both teams, which can lead to unpredictable outcomes. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that analyzes the fixture through aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the tournament context to arrive at predictions.
About the Teams
USA
Paraguay
Head to Head
Last 3 Meetings (USA leads 3-0)





The USA has won all three of their matches against Paraguay, with a record of 3 wins and 0 draws. However, the sample is limited, featuring just one competitive match from the 2016 Copa America and two friendlies from 2016 and 2018, with the most recent friendly occurring in 2025. This small and mixed sample size means it is difficult to draw strong conclusions about a consistent trend in these encounters. The competitive match ended in a narrow 1-0 victory for the USA, while the friendlies saw the USA winning 1-0 and 2-1.
Group D Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 6 | LWLWW | |
| 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | LDLW | |
| 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 | LWDWL | |
| 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 | WLL |
Key Statistics
2026 Season
USA have won 8 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Bosnia & Herzegovina 2-0 and beat Australia 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 1D 6L from the last 15 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.













Paraguay have won 3 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Paraguay 1-1 and lost to Morocco 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 4D 4L from the last 13 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.












Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.
Unavailable Players
0 players
USA
No reported absences
Paraguay
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.



