USA vs Paraguay Prediction, Tips & Odds

USA vs Paraguay

World CupGroup Stage - 1
USA
#1 · World Cup
WLWWL
4 - 1
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
Referee: Danny Makkelie, Netherlands
Paraguay
#3 · World Cup
DDWLW

Match Preview

The USA enters this match against Paraguay with a strong position in Group D, having secured 6 points from three matches, including two wins and a loss. Their goal-scoring ability has been notable, netting 8 goals while conceding 4. The USA's recent competitive form shows a mix of results, but they have demonstrated their attacking prowess, particularly in their last competitive meeting with Paraguay, where they won 4-1. Under the guidance of manager M. Pochettino, who has been at the helm since September 2024, the team aims to build on their recent performances. Paraguay, on the other hand, finds itself third in the group with 4 points, having won once and drawn once from their three matches. Their goal tally of 2 goals scored against 4 conceded indicates struggles in both defence and attack. While they have shown resilience in their recent matches, including a 1-1 draw against Germany, their overall tournament history reveals a lack of recent appearances, which may impact their confidence. Manager G. Alfaro took charge in August 2024, and his task will be to galvanize the squad for this crucial clash. The stakes are high for both teams, as they look to solidify their standing in the group. The USA is in a favorable position to advance, while Paraguay needs a positive result to keep their hopes alive. A caveat to consider is the limited competitive data for both teams, which can lead to unpredictable outcomes. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that analyzes the fixture through aggregated bookmaker probabilities and the tournament context to arrive at predictions.

About the Teams

USA

ManagerM. Pochettino · since 2024-09-01
Tournament historyLast 3 editions — 2022: Round of 16; 2014: Round of 16. Best: Round of 16.
Recent matches
Wvs Bosnia & Herzegovina 2-0World Cup
Lat Türkiye 2-3World Cup
Wvs Australia 2-0World Cup
Wvs Paraguay 4-1World Cup
Lvs Germany 1-2Friendly
Wvs Senegal 3-2Friendly

Paraguay

ManagerG. Alfaro · since 2024-08-01
Qualifying6th in WC Qualification South America, 7W-7D-4L, 28 pts
Tournament historyNo appearances in the last 3 editions on record
Recent matches
Dat Germany 1-1World Cup
Dvs Australia 0-0World Cup
Wvs Nicaragua 4-0Friendly
Lat Morocco 1-2Friendly
Wat Greece 1-0Friendly
Wat Mexico 2-1Friendly

Head to Head

Last 3 Meetings (USA leads 3-0)
3 USA0 Draw0 Paraguay
Nov 25
USA
2-1
Paraguay
Friendlies
Mar 18
USA
1-0
Paraguay
Friendlies
Jun 16
USA
1-0
Paraguay
Copa America

The USA has won all three of their matches against Paraguay, with a record of 3 wins and 0 draws. However, the sample is limited, featuring just one competitive match from the 2016 Copa America and two friendlies from 2016 and 2018, with the most recent friendly occurring in 2025. This small and mixed sample size means it is difficult to draw strong conclusions about a consistent trend in these encounters. The competitive match ended in a narrow 1-0 victory for the USA, while the friendlies saw the USA winning 1-0 and 2-1.

Group D Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
USA
32018446
LWLWW
2
Australia
31112204
LDLW
3
Paraguay
311124-24
LWDWL
4
Türkiye
310235-23
WLL

Key Statistics

2026 Season
USAParaguay
1.93Goals p.g.1.15
1.53Goals conceded p.g.0.85
20%Clean sheets46%
53%Win rate38%
3.47Avg goals in match2
1.36xG per game0.33
-1.15xGA per game0.44
52%Possession %38%
4.1Shots on target / game3.4
5.5Corners per game3.9
USA
Recent Form

USA have won 8 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Bosnia & Herzegovina 2-0 and beat Australia 2-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 8W 1D 6L from the last 15 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: USAAll competitions
02 Jul
USA
2-0
Bosnia & Herzegovina
World Cup
26 Jun
Türkiye
3-2
USA
World Cup
19 Jun
USA
2-0
Australia
World Cup
13 Jun
USA
4-1
Paraguay
World Cup
06 Jun
USA
1-2
Germany
Friendlies
31 May
USA
3-2
Senegal
Friendlies
8
Win
53%
1
Draw
7%
6
Lost
40%
Paraguay
Recent Form

Paraguay have won 3 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Paraguay 1-1 and lost to Morocco 2-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 5W 4D 4L from the last 13 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: ParaguayAll competitions
29 Jun
Germany
1-1
Paraguay
World Cup
26 Jun
Paraguay
0-0
Australia
World Cup
05 Jun
Paraguay
4-0
Nicaragua
Friendlies
31 Mar
Morocco
2-1
Paraguay
Friendlies
27 Mar
Greece
0-1
Paraguay
Friendlies
Nov 25
Mexico
1-2
Paraguay
Friendlies
5
Win
38%
4
Draw
31%
4
Lost
31%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

National-team lineups are genuinely unknown until 1 to 2 hours before kick-off, when the starting XI is confirmed. Until then, only predicted lineups are possible.

Unavailable Players

0 players

USA

No reported absences

Paraguay

No reported absences

What's Your Prediction?

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OUR PREDICTION
2.5 Goals Under

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.

USA vs Paraguay Predictions, Stats, H2H - 13 Jun 2026 | The Daily Punt