Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng Prediction, Tips & Odds
Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng
Match Preview
The model favours Beijing Guoan to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Shandong Luneng. Currently sitting in 10th place, Beijing Guoan has shown a balanced season with five wins, five draws, and five losses. Their goal difference of +3 indicates a solid offensive output, having scored 26 goals while conceding 23. Recent form has been encouraging, with three wins in their last five matches, suggesting they are gaining momentum. On the other hand, Shandong Luneng occupies 5th place and has a mixed record this season, with seven wins, three draws, and five losses. Their goal difference of 0 points to a lack of defensive solidity, as they have scored 25 goals but also conceded 25. However, their recent form has been less impressive, with only two wins in their last five matches, which could impact their confidence going into this game. The model gives Beijing Guoan a win probability of 55%, with the projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is their odds for a win at home. A caveat to consider is that Shandong Luneng could bounce back if they manage to tighten their defense or capitalise on any mistakes. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.3% probability.
Beijing Guoan have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Beijing Guoan win as the most likely scoreline at 12.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Beijing Guoan are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Luneng| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 4.10 | 3.85 | 1.36 | 2.95 | 1.36 | 2.70 | |
| 1.72 | 4.10 | 3.95 | 1.32 | 2.88 | 1.36 | 2.83 | |
| 1.75 | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 1.79 | 4.22 | 4.07 | 1.39 | 3.05 | — | — | |
| 1.63 | 3.65 | 3.41 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.90 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 1.75 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.77 | 4.22 | 4.07 | 1.35 | 3.40 | 1.36 | 2.89 | |
| 1.71 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.34 | 2.95 | 1.37 | 2.80 | |
| 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 4.05 | 3.90 | 1.38 | 2.80 | 1.40 | 2.72 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 4.10 | 3.75 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Shandong Luneng leads 4-2)In their last 10 encounters, Beijing Guoan has won 2 matches, drawn 4, and lost 4 to Shandong Luneng. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with notable heavy wins; Shandong Luneng recorded a significant 6-0 victory and a 3-0 win, while Beijing Guoan's largest margin was a 6-1 triumph. The presence of four draws highlights a tendency for tightly contested matches, although the last victory for Beijing Guoan came in 2025. Recent fixtures have seen Shandong Luneng dominate, suggesting a shift in momentum in their head-to-head meetings.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 37 | |
| 2 |  Chongqing Tongliang Long | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 24 | |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 22 | |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 21 | |
| 5 | Shandong Luneng | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 18 | |
| 6 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 15 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 18 | |
| 10 | Beijing Guoan | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 15 | |
| 14 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 10 | |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 8 | |
| 16 |  Tianjin Teda | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 5 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBeijing Guoan have won 5 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Beijing Guoan 1-2 and beat Beijing Guoan 4-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 8L from the last 25 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Shandong Luneng have won 5 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Shandong Luneng 0-5 and lost to Chengdu Better City 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 5L from the last 25 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBeijing Guoan
No reported absences
Shandong Luneng
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Beijing Guoan have averaged 7.3 corners per match at home; Shandong Luneng 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Beijing Guoan have generated 1.89 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 6.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Beijing Guoan player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.