Flora Tallinn vs Saburtalo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Saburtalo
Match Preview
The model favours Saburtalo to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Saburtalo has shown a solid level of performance recently, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. This form indicates a team that is capable of competing effectively, particularly as they have managed to secure points in difficult situations. Flora Tallinn, on the other hand, has experienced mixed results lately with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. While they have had moments of success, the inconsistency in their performances may be a concern as they prepare for this crucial qualifier. The ability to convert chances into goals will be key for them, especially considering the competitive nature of the match. According to the model output, Saburtalo has a win probability of 39.0%, while Flora Tallinn sits at 33.5%. The projected score reflects a closely contested match, with a likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 48.3%. However, a caveat for Saburtalo is the potential for defensive lapses, which could allow Flora Tallinn to capitalize and change the dynamics of the game. The full method of our prediction comes from an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season, as detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.0% probability.
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Flora Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Flora Tallinn vs Saburtalo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.62 | 3.55 | 2.35 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.36 | 1.68 | 2.14 | 1.54 | 2.28 | |
| 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.38 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.61 | 3.49 | 2.30 | 1.64 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 2.69 | 3.20 | 2.14 | 1.67 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.38 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.35 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.69 | 3.58 | 2.38 | 1.68 | 2.14 | 1.54 | 2.32 | |
| 2.70 | 3.75 | 2.28 | 1.72 | 1.98 | 1.63 | 2.12 | |
| 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.40 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 2.70 | 3.45 | 2.40 | 1.70 | 2.07 | 1.57 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.45 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Saburtalo leads 1-0)In their only head-to-head encounter, Saburtalo has won 1 match against Flora Tallinn, with a scoreline of 2-1. This result indicates a competitive match, but it also shows that Saburtalo emerged victorious in a narrow contest. With just one match played, there is limited data to assess any patterns, but the single defeat for Flora Tallinn suggests they have yet to secure a win against Saburtalo.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonFlora Tallinn have won 10 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Flora Tallinn 2-3 and lost to Flora Tallinn 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 2D 9L from the last 31 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Saburtalo have won 1 of their last 3 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Flora Tallinn 2-3 and lost to Samgurali 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 4D 3L from the last 12 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFlora Tallinn
No reported absences
Saburtalo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Putros has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by S. Putros to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Flora Tallinn average 2.1 goals per match at home; Saburtalo 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 65% of their matches and averaging 2.1 goals per game. Flora Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
