JFK Ventspils vs Valmiera / BSS Prediction, Tips & Odds
JFK Ventspils vs Valmiera / BSS
Match Preview
The model favours Valmiera / BSS to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-0 against JFK Ventspils. Valmiera / BSS currently sits in third place in the league standings, showcasing a strong season with 7 wins, 2 draws, and only 1 loss in 10 matches. Their attacking prowess is evident, having scored 26 goals while conceding just 11, resulting in a goal difference of +15. This efficiency in both scoring and defending underlines their status as one of the top teams in the league. In contrast, JFK Ventspils is struggling at the bottom of the table in 12th position, with a disappointing record of just 1 win from 9 matches played. They have managed to score only 11 goals while conceding 17, leaving them with a goal difference of -6. Their recent form, with only 2 wins in the last 5 matches, indicates they are struggling to find consistency, which could be detrimental against a team like Valmiera / BSS. The model outputs a win probability of 70% for Valmiera / BSS, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a potential caveat is that if JFK Ventspils can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Valmiera / BSS, they could make the match more competitive. The full method used for this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
Valmiera / BSS have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-2 Valmiera / BSS win as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Valmiera / BSS are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
JFK Ventspils vs Valmiera / BSS| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 6.00 | 4.40 | 1.36 | — | — | — | — | |
| 6.80 | 4.55 | 1.34 | 1.45 | 2.41 | 1.66 | 2.01 | |
| 7.00 | 4.75 | 1.30 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
| 5.67 | 4.48 | 1.37 | 1.46 | 2.43 | — | — | |
| 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.40 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 5.25 | 4.50 | 1.42 | 1.44 | 2.62 | — | — | |
| 7.08 | 4.55 | 1.35 | 1.45 | 2.41 | 1.66 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 5.80 | 4.55 | 1.39 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Valmiera / BSS leads 1-0)In the head-to-head record between JFK Ventspils and Valmiera / BSS, Valmiera has won 1 match, while JFK Ventspils has not secured any victories, resulting in no draws. The lone encounter saw Valmiera winning decisively with a score of 2-0, indicating a clear advantage in that match. With only one match played, it suggests a strong start for Valmiera, although more fixtures would be necessary to draw broader conclusions about the rivalry.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 31 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 12 | 20 | 29 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  Riga Mariners | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 28 | WWWDW |
| 4 |  Leevon / PPK | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 24 | LLDWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 20 | LWDWW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 19 | WLLLW |
| 12 | JFK Ventspils | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 7 | DLWLL |
| 13 |  Rēzekne FA | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 14 |  Smiltene | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonJFK Ventspils have won 2 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to JFK Ventspils 0-2 and lost to JFK Ventspils 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 7D 11L from the last 23 games (22% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Valmiera / BSS have won 8 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat JFK Ventspils 0-2 and beat Smiltene 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 2D 6L from the last 23 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersJFK Ventspils
No reported absences
Valmiera / BSS
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
JFK Ventspils average 1.3 goals per match at home; Valmiera / BSS 2.7 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Valmiera / BSS have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 65% of their matches and averaging 2.7 goals per game. Valmiera / BSS player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
