Rīgas FS II vs Super Nova 2 Prediction, Tips & Odds
Rīgas FS II vs Super Nova 2
Match Preview
The model favours Super Nova 2 to win against Rīgas FS II, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Super Nova 2 currently sits in 7th place in the standings with 15 points from 10 matches, having secured four wins, three draws, and three losses. Their goal difference is balanced at zero, with 15 goals scored and 15 conceded, indicating a team that is competitive but has struggled to dominate matches. In contrast, Rīgas FS II is in 10th place with only 8 points, having won just two of their ten games this season. Their goal difference of -9, with 13 goals scored and 22 conceded, suggests significant defensive vulnerabilities. Despite a recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses over their last five matches, they have not shown enough consistency to climb the table. The model output indicates a clear win probability in favour of Super Nova 2. While they are expected to perform better, a potential caveat is that Rīgas FS II could exploit any defensive lapses from Super Nova 2, particularly given their recent form. The full methodology behind this prediction, based on expected goals and actual results across the season, can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.1% probability.
Rīgas FS II have been the stronger side, winning 27% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Rīgas FS II are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Rīgas FS II vs Super Nova 2| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.50 | 3.70 | 2.25 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.22 | 3.72 | 2.54 | 1.41 | 2.52 | 1.38 | 2.67 | |
| 2.60 | 4.00 | 2.10 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.17 | 3.76 | 2.51 | 1.44 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 2.20 | 3.75 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 2.22 | 3.72 | 2.54 | 1.41 | 2.52 | 1.38 | 2.74 | |
Betano | 2.25 | 3.65 | 2.57 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Rīgas FS II and Super Nova 2 stands at 0 wins for Rīgas FS II, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Super Nova 2. Their only encounter ended in a 1-1 draw, indicating a tightly contested match. With only one fixture to consider, the results suggest a balanced rivalry without a clear dominant side. Both teams have yet to secure a victory against each other, highlighting the competitive nature of their meetings.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 31 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 12 | 20 | 29 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  Riga Mariners | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 28 | WWWDW |
| 4 |  Leevon / PPK | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 24 | LLDWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 20 | LWDWW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 19 | WLLLW |
| 7 | Super Nova 2 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 19 | DWLDW |
| 11 | Rīgas FS II | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 9 | DLWWL |
| 12 |  Tukums II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 8 | LLLLD |
| 13 |  Rēzekne FA | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 14 |  Smiltene | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRīgas FS II have won 3 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Super Nova 2 1-1 and lost to Riga FC II 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 6D 10L from the last 22 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Super Nova 2 have won 1 of their last 5 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Super Nova 2 1-1 and lost to Metta / LU 7-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 4D 3L from the last 12 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRīgas FS II
No reported absences
Super Nova 2
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Rīgas FS II average 1.6 goals per match at home; Super Nova 2 1.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Rīgas FS II have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 27% of their matches and averaging 1.6 goals per game. Rīgas FS II player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
