Rēzekne FA vs JFK Ventspils Prediction, Tips & Odds
Rēzekne FA vs JFK Ventspils
Match Preview
The model favours JFK Ventspils to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Ventspils currently holds the 12th position in the league, having accumulated 6 points from 9 matches. Their season has been challenging, with 1 win, 3 draws, and 5 losses. However, they have shown some resilience, scoring 11 goals while conceding 17, resulting in a goal difference of -6. Their recent form includes two wins in their last five matches, suggesting a slight uptick in performance. In contrast, Rēzekne FA sits at the bottom of the table in 14th place with only 4 points from 10 matches. Their record of 1 win, 1 draw, and 8 losses is concerning, particularly given their goal tally of just 7 against 31 conceded, leading to a significant goal difference of -24. Rēzekne has struggled to find form, with only one win in their last five matches, indicating ongoing issues in both attack and defense. The model assigns a win probability of 55% for JFK Ventspils, with the projected score of 2-1 reflecting their slightly better position and form. One key market percentage to note is their current odds reflecting a reasonable chance of victory. However, the caveat lies in the unpredictability of football; if Rēzekne can find a way to score early or disrupt Ventspils' rhythm, the game could take an unexpected turn. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
JFK Ventspils have been the stronger side, winning 25% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 JFK Ventspils win as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. JFK Ventspils are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Rēzekne FA vs JFK Ventspils| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.10 | 3.95 | 1.60 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.90 | 4.20 | 1.49 | 1.39 | 2.59 | 1.49 | 2.34 | |
| 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.57 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.45 | 2.55 | |
| 4.37 | 4.07 | 1.53 | 1.40 | 2.61 | — | — | |
| 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.62 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 4.33 | 4.50 | 1.53 | 1.44 | 2.62 | — | — | |
| 4.42 | 4.00 | 1.60 | 1.41 | 2.52 | 1.47 | 2.44 | |
Betano | 4.10 | 4.20 | 1.60 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (JFK Ventspils leads 3-0)In the last six matches between Rēzekne FA and JFK Ventspils, the record stands at three wins for JFK Ventspils, three draws, and no wins for Rēzekne FA. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with three matches ending in draws and three victories for JFK Ventspils, two of which were by narrow margins (1-0). However, one match saw a significant defeat for Rēzekne FA, ending 4-0. The most recent draw in August 2025 suggests that Rēzekne FA has struggled to secure a victory against JFK Ventspils, having not won in this matchup historically.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 31 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 12 | 20 | 29 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  Riga Mariners | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 28 | WWWDW |
| 4 |  Leevon / PPK | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 24 | LLDWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 20 | LWDWW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 19 | WLLLW |
| 10 | JFK Ventspils | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 10 | WDLWL |
| 12 |  Tukums II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 8 | LLLLD |
| 13 | Rēzekne FA | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 14 |  Smiltene | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRēzekne FA have won 3 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with JFK Ventspils 1-1 and lost to JDFS Alberts 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 3D 15L from the last 23 games (22% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
JFK Ventspils have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat JFK Ventspils 0-3 and drew with Rēzekne FA 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 7D 11L from the last 24 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRēzekne FA
No reported absences
JFK Ventspils
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Rēzekne FA average 1.3 goals per match at home; JFK Ventspils 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
JFK Ventspils have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 25% of their matches and averaging 1.4 goals per game. JFK Ventspils player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
