Riga FC II vs Tukums II Prediction, Tips & Odds
Riga FC II vs Tukums II
Match Preview
The model favours Riga FC II to win against Tukums II with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Riga FC II currently sits in 9th place in the 1. Liga standings, having accumulated 10 points from 10 matches. Their season has been challenging, reflected in a record of three wins, one draw, and six losses. Key statistics highlight their goal-scoring capability, with 14 goals scored, although they have also conceded 21 goals, resulting in a goal difference of -7. On the other hand, Tukums II is positioned 11th, just below Riga FC II, with 8 points from 10 matches. Their record shows two wins, two draws, and six losses, with 15 goals scored but a higher number of 26 goals conceded, leading to a goal difference of -11. This indicates defensive struggles throughout the season, which could make it difficult for them to secure points. The model suggests a win probability of 55% for Riga FC II, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of over 2.5 goals, given both teams' defensive vulnerabilities. However, a potential caveat lies in Riga FC II's recent form, having lost four of their last five matches, which could impact their confidence. The full methodology of our prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
Riga FC II have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Riga FC II win as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Riga FC II are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Riga FC II vs Tukums II| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.75 | 3.85 | 3.45 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.50 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.36 | 2.88 | |
| 1.74 | 3.69 | 3.58 | 1.38 | 2.68 | — | — | |
| 1.68 | 3.53 | 3.32 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| 1.75 | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.44 | 2.62 | — | — | |
| 1.84 | 4.10 | 3.32 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.40 | 2.77 | |
Betano | 1.80 | 3.65 | 3.60 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Riga FC II leads 7-1)The head-to-head record between Riga FC II and Tukums II shows Riga FC II winning 7 times, with Tukums II securing only 1 victory and no draws in their last 8 encounters. This record indicates a significant dominance by Riga FC II, especially highlighted by several heavy wins, including a 9-0 and a 7-0 result. The lone win for Tukums II came in November 2025, suggesting a long period of struggle against Riga FC II. Overall, the matches have often been high-scoring, reflecting a one-sided nature in favor of Riga FC II.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 31 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 12 | 20 | 29 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  Riga Mariners | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 28 | WWWDW |
| 4 |  Leevon / PPK | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 24 | LLDWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 20 | LWDWW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 19 | WLLLW |
| 8 | Riga FC II | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 16 | WWWLL |
| 11 | Tukums II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 8 | LLLLD |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 7 | DLWLL |
| 13 |  Rēzekne FA | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 14 |  Smiltene | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRiga FC II have won 8 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tukums II 2-0 and beat Smiltene 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 2D 10L from the last 22 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Tukums II have won 3 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tukums II 2-0 and lost to Super Nova 2 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 3D 14L from the last 22 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRiga FC II
No reported absences
Tukums II
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Riga FC II average 1.9 goals per match at home; Tukums II 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Riga FC II have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 45% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Riga FC II player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
