Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown
Match Preview
The model favours Shanghai Shenhua to win against Hangzhou Greentown, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Despite currently sitting in 12th place, Shanghai Shenhua has shown resilience this season with a goal difference of +5, indicating a stronger offensive output compared to their defensive vulnerabilities. Their recent form includes one win, two draws, and two losses in the last five matches, suggesting they are in a transitional phase but still capable of capitalising on home advantage. On the other hand, Hangzhou Greentown, positioned 7th in the league, has garnered 17 points from 15 matches, with a goal difference of -3. Their recent performances have been more consistent, reflected in their last five matches where they secured two wins, two draws, and one loss. However, their scoring has been less prolific, netting only 20 goals this season, which places them at a disadvantage when facing a team like Shenhua that has a higher goals-for tally. The model indicates a win probability of around 55% for Shanghai Shenhua, suggesting a close contest. One key market percentage to note is the expectation for Shanghai to secure the home victory. However, if Hangzhou can maintain their recent defensive solidity and exploit any lapses in Shenhua's form, they could potentially upset the prediction. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.7% probability.
Shanghai Shenhua have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Shanghai Shenhua win as the most likely scoreline at 12.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Shanghai Shenhua are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shanghai Shenhua vs Hangzhou Greentown| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.59 | 4.30 | 4.45 | 1.36 | 2.95 | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| 1.60 | 4.33 | 4.50 | 1.33 | 2.83 | 1.41 | 2.64 | |
| 1.60 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 1.63 | 4.69 | 4.63 | 1.39 | 3.04 | — | — | |
| 1.56 | 3.76 | 3.73 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.20 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| 1.60 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.64 | 4.53 | 4.64 | 1.35 | 3.40 | 1.40 | 2.73 | |
| 1.65 | 4.20 | 4.30 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.37 | 2.80 | |
| 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.20 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
Betano | 1.62 | 4.30 | 4.40 | 1.38 | 2.80 | 1.44 | 2.60 |
BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.33 | 4.50 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 2.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Shanghai Shenhua leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Hangzhou Greentown, Shanghai Shenhua has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and Hangzhou Greentown has secured 2 victories. The scorelines suggest a mix of competitive and lopsided results, with several narrow wins like the 3-2 and 1-0, but also some heavy defeats for Hangzhou Greentown, including a 4-0 loss. The frequency of draws indicates that matches can be closely contested; however, Hangzhou Greentown's last win was in December 2022, suggesting a trend of struggle against Shenhua in recent fixtures.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 37 | |
| 2 |  Chongqing Tongliang Long | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 24 | |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 22 | |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 21 | |
| 5 |  Shandong Luneng | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 18 | |
| 6 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 15 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 18 | |
| 7 | Hangzhou Greentown | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 17 | |
| 12 | Shanghai Shenhua | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 13 | |
| 14 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 10 | |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 8 | |
| 16 |  Tianjin Teda | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 5 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonShanghai Shenhua have won 4 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Shanghai Shenhua 1-2 and drew with Shanghai Shenhua 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 8D 9L from the last 25 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Hangzhou Greentown have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Hangzhou Greentown 1-1 and beat Henan Jianye 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 11D 7L from the last 25 games (28% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShanghai Shenhua
No reported absences
Hangzhou Greentown
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shanghai Shenhua have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; Hangzhou Greentown 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shanghai Shenhua have generated 2.35 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shanghai Shenhua player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.