Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Match Preview
The model favours Chongqing Tongliang Long to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in second place in the league, Chongqing has accumulated 24 points from 15 matches, with a record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses. Their solid defence has conceded only 16 goals, resulting in a goal difference of +3. The team has shown resilience throughout the season, particularly in their ability to secure points even when not winning, as reflected in their six draws. On the other hand, Shenyang Urban finds themselves in eighth place with 17 points, having won 5, drawn 2, and lost 8 of their 15 matches. While they have managed to score 20 goals, their defensive record has been a concern, with 23 goals conceded leading to a negative goal difference of -3. Their recent form shows promise with three wins in their last five matches, but the overall inconsistency could prove detrimental against a stronger opponent. The model's output indicates a win probability in favour of Chongqing Tongliang Long, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage worth noting is their potential to secure points through draws, given their history this season. However, a possible caveat for Chongqing could be underestimating Shenyang Urban, who may capitalize on any defensive lapses. For a detailed understanding of our prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Shenyang Urban manage games at home, conceding just 1.20 goals per match. Chongqing Tongliang Long score 1.20 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Shenyang Urban have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Shenyang Urban clean sheets, in line with their 28% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Shenyang Urban are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shenyang Urban vs Chongqing Tongliang Long| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.06 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 1.93 | |
| 2.03 | 3.28 | 3.55 | 2.01 | 1.76 | 1.79 | 1.89 | |
| 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 2.08 | 3.46 | 3.70 | 2.07 | 1.82 | — | — | |
| 1.92 | 2.99 | 3.08 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.09 | 3.38 | 3.66 | 2.03 | 1.80 | 1.79 | 1.92 | |
| 2.08 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.98 | 1.72 | 1.79 | 1.89 | |
| 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 2.07 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.02 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 1.74 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Chongqing Tongliang Long leads 3-2)In the last five matches between Shenyang Urban and Chongqing Tongliang Long, Chongqing has won three times, while Shenyang has secured two victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with two matches ending in narrow 1-0 wins for Chongqing and one for Shenyang, suggesting tight contests. However, Shenyang's 4-2 win in one fixture demonstrates their ability to produce heavy scoring when successful. Overall, the record shows a slight edge for Chongqing, and it has been a while since Shenyang last defeated them in their most recent matchups.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 13 | 20 | 37 | |
| 2 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 24 | |
| 3 |  Dalian Zhixing | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 22 | |
| 4 |  Yunnan Yukun | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 27 | 24 | 3 | 21 | |
| 5 |  Shandong Luneng | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 18 | |
| 6 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 15 | 3 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 18 | |
| 8 | Shenyang Urban | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 17 | |
| 14 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 10 | |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 8 | |
| 16 |  Tianjin Teda | 15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 5 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonShenyang Urban have won 7 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Shenyang Urban 3-2 and beat Shenyang Urban 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 10L from the last 25 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 7 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Chongqing Tongliang Long 0-2 and beat Qingdao Jonoon 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 8D 6L from the last 25 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShenyang Urban
No reported absences
Chongqing Tongliang Long
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shenyang Urban have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; Chongqing Tongliang Long 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shenyang Urban have generated 1.23 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shenyang Urban player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.