Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol
Match Preview
The model favours Kashiwa Reysol to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Kashiwa Reysol currently sits in a strong third position in the J1 League, having secured two victories from their opening two matches. With five goals scored and only two conceded, they have demonstrated effective attacking prowess and solid defensive capabilities, contributing to a positive goal difference of three. In contrast, Shimizu S-pulse occupies the eleventh position with one win and one loss from their two games. Their performance has been mixed, with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. Although they have managed to keep their goal difference at zero, their single goal scored so far indicates a need for improvement in attack to compete effectively against higher-ranked teams like Kashiwa. According to our model, Kashiwa Reysol has a win probability of approximately 60%, while Shimizu S-pulse sits at 20%. One key market percentage to note is the likelihood of Kashiwa Reysol winning by a one-goal margin. However, if Shimizu can find their attacking rhythm and exploit any defensive lapses from Kashiwa, they could pose a significant challenge. For a detailed understanding of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Shimizu S-pulse manage games at home, conceding just 1.14 goals per match. Kashiwa Reysol score 1.52 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.5% probability.
Kashiwa Reysol have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Kashiwa Reysol are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shimizu S-pulse vs Kashiwa Reysol| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.26 | 3.38 | 2.13 | 2.01 | 1.77 | 1.78 | 1.90 | |
| 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.15 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.39 | 3.32 | 2.20 | 2.05 | 1.79 | — | — | |
| 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.15 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 3.34 | 3.46 | 2.18 | 2.04 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
Betano | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.20 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.15 | 1.95 | 1.73 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Kashiwa Reysol leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Shimizu S-pulse and Kashiwa Reysol, Kashiwa Reysol has won 5 times, Shimizu S-pulse has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close matches, including three draws and a mix of narrow and wider margins of victory. Kashiwa Reysol's victories include a 2-0 win and a 3-1 win, while Shimizu S-pulse's wins have been by narrow margins, such as 2-1 and 3-2. The last time Shimizu S-pulse defeated Kashiwa Reysol was in 2021, suggesting a recent advantage for Kashiwa Reysol.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Kashima | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | WWL |
| 6 |  Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 | WLW |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 18 |  Kyoto Sanga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 19 |  Urawa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonShimizu S-pulse have won 3 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Shimizu S-pulse 0-1 and drew with Shimizu S-pulse 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 9D 11L from the last 29 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Kashiwa Reysol have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Tokyo Verdy 1-3 and drew with JEF United Chiba 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 2D 13L from the last 29 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShimizu S-pulse
No reported absences
Kashiwa Reysol
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shimizu S-pulse have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; Kashiwa Reysol 5.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Kashiwa Reysol have generated 0.87 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Kashiwa Reysol player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
