Valmiera / BSS vs Leevon / PPK Prediction, Tips & Odds
Valmiera / BSS vs Leevon / PPK
Match Preview
The model favours Leevon / PPK to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Leevon currently sits in second place in the standings, boasting an unbeaten record with seven wins and three draws from ten matches. Their defence has been particularly strong, conceding only eight goals, which gives them a solid goal difference of ten. With 24 points, they are just one point ahead of third-placed Valmiera / BSS. Valmiera / BSS has also had a commendable season, positioned third with 23 points from ten matches. Their record includes seven wins, two draws, and one loss, with a goal tally of 26 scored and 11 conceded. While they have shown offensive prowess, their recent form has been mixed, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, indicating some vulnerability that Leevon could exploit. The model output indicates a win probability of 55% for Leevon / PPK, while Valmiera / BSS holds a 25% chance of winning, with a 20% probability of a draw. One potential caveat is the possibility of Leevon losing focus, given their unbeaten streak, which might allow Valmiera to capitalize on any defensive lapses. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
Valmiera / BSS have been the stronger side, winning 64% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Valmiera / BSS win as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Valmiera / BSS clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Valmiera / BSS are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Valmiera / BSS vs Leevon / PPK| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.45 | 4.33 | 5.10 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.40 | 5.85 | 1.42 | 2.49 | 1.63 | 2.06 | |
| 1.40 | 4.60 | 5.50 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.40 | 4.34 | 5.41 | 1.42 | 2.55 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.00 | 5.80 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 1.40 | 4.33 | 5.75 | 1.50 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 1.41 | 4.40 | 6.07 | 1.42 | 2.49 | 1.63 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.42 | 4.45 | 5.40 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Valmiera / BSS leads 1-0)In their only recorded match, Valmiera / BSS has won against Leevon / PPK with a score of 4-1. This result indicates a clear advantage for Valmiera / BSS, showcasing a strong performance with a three-goal margin. The match was not closely contested, as evidenced by the significant scoreline. Leevon / PPK has yet to secure a victory in this matchup, which may impact their confidence in future encounters.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 39 | 10 | 29 | 28 | WWDWW |
| 2 | Valmiera / BSS | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 17 | 26 | WWDLD |
| 3 |  Riga Mariners | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 25 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Leevon / PPK | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 24 | LDWWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 20 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Super Nova 2 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 18 | WLDWW |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 6 | LWLLD |
| 13 |  Smiltene | 11 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 4 | LLDLL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 35 | -26 | 4 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonValmiera / BSS have won 6 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include beat Valmiera / BSS 2-0 and drew with Valmiera / BSS 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 2D 6L from the last 22 games (64% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Leevon / PPK have won 7 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include beat JFK Ventspils 1-3 and drew with JDFS Alberts 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 4L from the last 23 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersValmiera / BSS
No reported absences
Leevon / PPK
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Valmiera / BSS average 2.6 goals per match at home; Leevon / PPK 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Valmiera / BSS have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 64% of their matches and averaging 2.6 goals per game. Valmiera / BSS player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.