AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia Prediction, Tips & Odds
AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia
Match Preview
The model favours AEK Athens FC to win against Levski Sofia, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. AEK Athens has shown a solid performance this season, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. Their recent form indicates resilience, particularly in bouncing back after setbacks. This competitive edge will be crucial as they face a strong opponent. Levski Sofia, on the other hand, arrives with an impressive run of form, having won four consecutive matches and drawn one in their last five outings. This unbeaten streak reflects their capability to perform under pressure. However, they will need to contend with the challenge posed by AEK Athens, who have the home advantage in this playoff encounter. The model output indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for AEK Athens, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market to watch is the odds on AEK Athens winning by a single goal. A potential caveat for AEK Athens could be the pressure of playing at home, which may lead to heightened expectations and performance anxiety. The full method used for this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of matches. Levski Sofia average 1.9 goals per game.
AEK Athens FC manage games at home, conceding just 0.77 goals per match. Levski Sofia score 1.95 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 19.3% probability.
AEK Athens FC have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 AEK Athens FC win as the most likely scoreline at 19.3% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature AEK Athens FC clean sheets, in line with their 48% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. AEK Athens FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
AEK Athens FC vs Levski Sofia| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.53 | 3.85 | 6.40 | 2.00 | 1.77 | 2.05 | 1.67 | |
| 1.52 | 3.94 | 6.25 | 2.07 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.64 | |
| 1.47 | 3.80 | 6.00 | 2.05 | 1.75 | — | — | |
| 1.53 | 4.04 | 6.18 | 2.08 | 1.74 | — | — | |
| 1.43 | 3.59 | 5.80 | 2.11 | 1.68 | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 3.80 | 6.00 | — | — | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 1.50 | 3.70 | 6.00 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.25 | 1.57 | |
| 1.59 | 4.12 | 6.53 | 2.14 | 1.79 | 2.10 | 1.66 | |
| 1.50 | 4.10 | 6.40 | 2.02 | 1.68 | 2.12 | 1.61 | |
| 1.50 | 3.80 | 6.00 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
Betano | 1.55 | 4.00 | 6.30 | 2.12 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.65 |
Superbet | 1.54 | 4.10 | 6.30 | 2.12 | 1.73 | 2.22 | 1.64 |
BetVictor | 1.50 | 3.90 | 6.50 | 2.01 | 1.69 | 2.15 | 1.62 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Levski Sofia stands at 0 wins for AEK Athens FC, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Levski Sofia. Their only encounter ended in a goalless draw, indicating a tightly contested match with no goals scored. This suggests a defensive battle, with neither side able to convert their chances into goals. As it is the only match between these teams, there is no indication of a dominant side, and both clubs have yet to secure a victory against each other in this matchup.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonAEK Athens FC have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Iraklis 1908 4-0 and drew with OFI 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 10D 4L from the last 31 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Levski Sofia have won 3 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 0. Their recent away fixtures include beat Levski Sofia 0-1 and drew with Universitatea Craiova 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 1L from the last 20 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAEK Athens FC
No reported absences
Levski Sofia
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
AEK Athens FC have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Levski Sofia 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AEK Athens FC have generated 1.46 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 55% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AEK Athens FC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
