SC Freiburg vs Motherwell Prediction, Tips & Odds
SC Freiburg vs Motherwell
Match Preview
The model favours SC Freiburg to win against Motherwell, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Freiburg has shown mixed form recently, with three wins and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency may be a concern, but they have demonstrated the ability to secure victories, which is crucial in a knockout round. On the other hand, Motherwell enters this match in strong form, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches with three wins and two draws. Their recent performances suggest resilience and a capacity to compete at a high level, which could pose a challenge for Freiburg. However, they will need to maintain this form against a team competing in a higher tier. The model assigns a win probability of approximately 60% to SC Freiburg, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage indicates that Freiburg is favoured in the betting lines. One caveat to consider is Freiburg's inconsistency, which could lead to an upset if they fail to convert chances. For a detailed explanation of the prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Head to Head
Last 1 Meetings (SC Freiburg leads 1-0)SC Freiburg hold the edge in this fixture, winning 1 of the last 1 meetings with 0 draws and 0 Motherwell wins. The record points to a tie SC Freiburg have controlled for years, though the draws show Motherwell have at times kept it tight.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSC Freiburg have won 12 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Crystal Palace 3-0 and beat Strasbourg 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 3D 12L from the last 30 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Motherwell have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Motherwell 1-0 and drew with HJK Helsinki 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 10L from the last 28 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSC Freiburg
No reported absences
Motherwell
No reported absences
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
