FC Levadia Tallinn vs Trans Narva Prediction, Tips & Odds
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Trans Narva
Match Preview
The model favours FC Levadia Tallinn to win against Trans Narva, projecting a scoreline of 3-0. FC Levadia Tallinn is currently at the top of the Meistriliiga standings, having played 20 matches with an impressive record of 14 wins, 5 draws, and only 1 loss. Their goal-scoring prowess is evident, with 50 goals scored and only 17 conceded, resulting in a significant goal difference of +33. This strong performance has translated into 47 points, placing them firmly in contention for the championship. In contrast, Trans Narva finds itself at the bottom of the table, ranked 10th with just 16 points from 21 matches. Their season has been challenging, with only 5 wins and a dismal goal difference of -31, having conceded 48 goals while scoring only 17. Their recent form shows some signs of life with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, but overall, they struggle to compete against the league's stronger teams. The model predicts a high probability of victory for FC Levadia Tallinn, with a win probability of over 70%. However, one caveat is that if Trans Narva can capitalize on any defensive lapses from the leaders, they might pose a greater threat than their standings suggest. The full method of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.7% probability.
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 FC Levadia Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 14.7% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature FC Levadia Tallinn clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. FC Levadia Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
FC Levadia Tallinn vs Trans Narva| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.15 | 6.50 | 13.00 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.90 | 1.75 | |
| 1.08 | 8.10 | 17.50 | 1.21 | 3.58 | 1.82 | 1.84 | |
| 1.08 | 8.50 | 14.00 | 1.20 | 4.00 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 1.12 | 8.68 | 14.19 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.12 | 6.47 | 10.60 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.12 | 7.50 | 17.00 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.12 | 9.00 | 12.00 | 1.25 | 3.75 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.08 | 8.10 | 17.50 | 1.21 | 3.58 | 1.82 | 1.87 | |
| 1.12 | 7.50 | 14.00 | 1.27 | 3.30 | 1.79 | 1.85 | |
| 1.14 | 7.00 | 15.00 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
Betano | 1.14 | 6.60 | 12.00 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.11 | 8.30 | 14.00 | 1.21 | 3.50 | 1.88 | 1.82 |
BetVictor | 1.07 | 5.75 | 10.50 | 1.17 | 2.90 | 1.67 | 1.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (FC Levadia Tallinn leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between FC Levadia Tallinn and Trans Narva, FC Levadia Tallinn has won 7 times, with 2 draws and 1 victory for Trans Narva. This record indicates a strong advantage for FC Levadia Tallinn, highlighted by several decisive wins, such as a 4-0 and a 3-1 scoreline. While Trans Narva managed to secure a 3-0 win in a friendly, their overall performance in competitive fixtures has been less impressive, with the last victory in a meaningful match occurring well before the recent fixtures. The matches tend to be low-scoring, with four encounters ending in draws or narrow margins.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 | Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFC Levadia Tallinn have won 10 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat FC Levadia Tallinn 4-1 and beat FC Levadia Tallinn 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 26W 7D 5L from the last 38 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Trans Narva have won 2 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Trans Narva 3-1 and lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 23L from the last 40 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFC Levadia Tallinn
No reported absences
Trans Narva
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Jakobson has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Jakobson to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
FC Levadia Tallinn average 2.5 goals per match at home; Trans Narva 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
FC Levadia Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 68% of their matches and averaging 2.5 goals per game. FC Levadia Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.