Paide vs Nõmme United Prediction, Tips & Odds
Paide vs Nõmme United
Match Preview
The model favours Paide to win this match against Nõmme United, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned fourth in the Meistriliiga, Paide has accumulated 35 points from 21 matches, securing 10 wins alongside 5 draws and 6 losses. Their goal difference of +5, with 33 goals scored and 28 conceded, reflects a solid attacking unit, although they have faced challenges in defence. On the other hand, Nõmme United sits in seventh place, having played 22 matches and gathered 25 points with 8 wins, 1 draw, and 13 losses. They have scored 40 goals but have conceded 53, resulting in a negative goal difference of -13. This indicates that while they can find the net, their defensive vulnerabilities have often led to dropped points. The model provides Paide with a win probability of approximately 60%, reinforcing their position as the stronger team in this matchup. However, a potential concern for Paide could be their recent inconsistency, as they have only managed two wins in their last five outings. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Paide have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Paide win as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Paide are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Paide vs Nõmme United| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.50 | 4.15 | 4.95 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.45 | 2.48 | |
| 1.50 | 4.40 | 4.75 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| 1.60 | 4.30 | 4.56 | 1.42 | 2.74 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.18 | 4.66 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 3.90 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 1.57 | 4.10 | 4.33 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.51 | 4.15 | 5.11 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.45 | 2.53 | |
| 1.48 | 4.50 | 5.00 | 1.35 | 2.80 | 1.44 | 2.48 | |
| 1.50 | 4.00 | 4.80 | 1.36 | 2.90 | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 1.55 | 4.15 | 4.50 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.54 | 4.35 | 4.65 | 1.35 | 2.77 | 1.46 | 2.55 |
BetVictor | 1.45 | 3.75 | 4.10 | 1.29 | 2.38 | 1.33 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Paide leads 6-0)In the last six matches between Paide and Nõmme United, Paide has won all six, with no draws or wins for Nõmme United. The scorelines indicate a dominant performance by Paide, with four matches ending in victories by three goals or more, including a notable 7-2 win. Nõmme United has struggled to keep pace, with their last victory against Paide occurring well before this sample, highlighting a significant gap in competitive performance. Overall, this head-to-head record reflects a clear advantage for Paide, characterized by both high-scoring games and consistent wins.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 | Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 | Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPaide have won 15 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to FC Levadia Tallinn 0-2 and beat Nõmme United 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 10D 12L from the last 42 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Nõmme United have won 8 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Nõmme United 1-0 and lost to Paide 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 2D 19L from the last 37 games (43% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPaide
No reported absences
Nõmme United
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Lorenz has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Lorenz to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Paide average 1.7 goals per match at home; Nõmme United 2.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Paide have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 48% of their matches and averaging 1.7 goals per game. They put 2.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Paide player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.