Benfica vs Aarhus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Benfica vs Aarhus
Match Preview
The model favours Benfica to win against Aarhus, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Benfica has shown strong form recently, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches. This unbeaten run highlights their resilience and ability to secure points, making them a formidable opponent in the Europa League play-offs. On the other hand, Aarhus has had a mixed bag of results, recording two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. While they have managed to pick up points, their inconsistency could hinder their chances against a well-performing side like Benfica. The need for a more stable performance will be crucial for Aarhus if they hope to challenge effectively. The model gives Benfica a higher win probability, reflecting their stronger recent form. However, one caveat is that if Aarhus can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Benfica, they could potentially upset the prediction. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this conclusion, our analysis team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.6% probability.
Benfica have been the stronger side, winning 61% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Benfica win as the most likely scoreline at 13.6% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Benfica clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Benfica are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Benfica vs Aarhus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.17 | 6.80 | 15.00 | 1.33 | 3.20 | 1.77 | 1.90 | |
| 1.17 | 6.75 | 13.75 | 1.28 | 3.08 | 1.80 | 1.88 | |
| 1.18 | 7.00 | 12.00 | 1.33 | 3.25 | — | — | |
| 1.15 | 8.23 | 11.94 | 1.25 | 3.07 | — | — | |
| 1.20 | 5.51 | 7.91 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.18 | 6.00 | 11.00 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.17 | 7.00 | 13.00 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 1.19 | 7.65 | 16.00 | 1.28 | 3.08 | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| 1.14 | 8.00 | 13.00 | 1.23 | 3.65 | 1.72 | 1.97 | |
| 1.18 | 6.00 | 11.00 | 1.30 | 3.10 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 1.21 | 7.20 | 12.00 | 1.35 | 3.20 | 1.85 | 1.88 |
BetVictor | 1.15 | 7.00 | 13.00 | 1.30 | 3.30 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonBenfica have won 11 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Benfica 2-2 and beat Benfica 6-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 7D 4L from the last 28 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Aarhus have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Aarhus 2-1 and lost to Sabah FA 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 10D 6L from the last 31 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBenfica
No reported absences
Aarhus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Benfica have averaged 8.2 corners per match at home; Aarhus 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Benfica have generated 2.79 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 61% of them. They put 6.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Benfica player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
