Inter vs Monza Prediction, Tips & Odds
Inter vs Monza
Match Preview
The model favours Inter to win against Monza, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. As the season begins, Inter finds themselves in a mid-table position, currently ranked 8th. Although they have yet to play this season, their recent form suggests a solid foundation, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches. This unbeaten streak reflects a resilient side that has managed to gain points consistently, which could be advantageous as they look to build momentum. On the other hand, Monza comes into this match ranked 13th and also has not played any matches this season. Their recent form shows mixed results, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency could be a concern as they aim to establish themselves in the league. The team will need to improve their performance if they hope to compete effectively against a side like Inter. Based on the model's analysis, Inter has a higher win probability, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat is that early-season matches can be unpredictable, as teams are still finding their rhythm. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.8% probability.
Inter have been the stronger side, winning 63% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Inter win as the most likely scoreline at 17.8% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Inter clean sheets, in line with their 37% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Inter are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Inter vs Monza| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.20 | 5.80 | 15.50 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 2.30 | 1.57 | |
| 1.18 | 8.00 | 17.00 | 1.50 | 2.45 | 2.29 | 1.55 | |
| 1.15 | 7.50 | 16.00 | 1.45 | 2.55 | 2.25 | 1.60 | |
| 1.18 | 7.96 | 16.35 | 1.52 | 2.56 | — | — | |
| 1.17 | 7.05 | 13.96 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.17 | 7.00 | 15.00 | — | — | 2.20 | 1.62 | |
| 1.18 | 7.50 | 15.00 | 1.50 | 2.62 | 2.25 | 1.57 | |
| 1.20 | 8.15 | 17.00 | 1.50 | 2.45 | 2.29 | 1.56 | |
| 1.16 | 7.00 | 16.00 | 1.53 | 2.48 | 2.35 | 1.56 | |
| 1.17 | 7.00 | 15.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 2.20 | 1.65 | |
Betano | 1.21 | 7.30 | 16.50 | 1.55 | 2.52 | 2.35 | 1.55 |
Superbet | 1.19 | 7.40 | 14.00 | 1.53 | 2.55 | 2.30 | 1.60 |
BetVictor | 1.15 | 7.50 | 17.00 | 1.49 | 2.39 | 2.25 | 1.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Inter leads 3-1)In the last seven matches between Inter and Monza, Inter has won 3 times, Monza has won once, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close matches, including three drawn games and a narrow 3-2 victory for Inter. Monza's lone win was a tight 1-0 result, while Inter's victories include a more commanding 5-1 win, suggesting they can dominate when in form. Overall, the matches have shown a mix of close contests and significant wins, with Monza last securing a victory over Inter in April 2023.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 | Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 17 | Monza | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 | DLL |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonInter have won 10 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Napoli 3-2 and beat Monza 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 8D 3L from the last 30 games (63% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Monza have won 3 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Monza 0-1 and lost to Inter 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 3D 5L from the last 14 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
10 playersInter3
Monza7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
L. Marinelli has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by L. Marinelli to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Inter have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Monza 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Inter have generated 2.06 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 63% of them. They put 5.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Inter player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
