Parma vs Cagliari Prediction, Tips & Odds
Parma vs Cagliari
Match Preview
The model favours Cagliari to win this match against Parma, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Cagliari starts the season in a strong position, having finished 3rd in the previous campaign. Their recent form shows resilience, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, indicating they have built a solid foundation heading into this season. Key statistics suggest that their ability to remain unbeaten will be crucial as they look to carry momentum into the new season. On the other hand, Parma enters the match with a mixed recent record, having drawn four of their last five games and securing just one win. This trend may reflect a struggle to convert draws into victories, which could hinder their aspirations for a strong start this season. With a league position of 15th last season, they will need to improve significantly to challenge the upper half of the table. According to the model, Cagliari has a win probability of 60%, with the projected score being 2-1. However, a potential caveat could be the effect of early-season jitters, as both teams are yet to play a competitive match this season. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of matches. Cagliari average 1.0 goals per game.
Parma manage games at home, conceding just 1.20 goals per match. Cagliari score 0.96 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.1% probability.
Parma have been the stronger side, winning 27% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Parma are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Parma vs Cagliari| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.48 | 3.05 | 2.94 | 2.40 | 1.55 | 2.00 | 1.77 | |
| 2.65 | 3.00 | 3.05 | 2.50 | 1.55 | 2.00 | 1.72 | |
| 2.63 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.45 | 1.53 | 1.83 | 1.75 | |
| 2.68 | 3.02 | 3.10 | 2.54 | 1.55 | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 2.86 | 2.86 | 2.49 | 1.55 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 2.60 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.38 | 1.57 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 2.71 | 3.06 | 3.12 | 2.57 | 1.60 | 2.00 | 1.74 | |
| 2.55 | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.48 | 1.53 | 2.02 | 1.74 | |
| 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.40 | 1.53 | 1.95 | 1.83 | |
Betano | 2.60 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.50 | 1.57 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
Superbet | 2.65 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.40 | 1.58 | 2.00 | 1.78 |
BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.30 | 1.53 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cagliari leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Parma and Cagliari, the record stands at 1 win for Parma, 4 draws, and 5 wins for Cagliari. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches. Notably, four matches ended in draws, and Cagliari has won by narrow margins, including a 2-1 and a 3-2 victory. Despite Cagliari's overall edge in wins, the presence of low-scoring games, such as the 0-0 draws, suggests that neither team consistently dominates the other. Parma's last win against Cagliari occurred in April 2023, making their recent encounters particularly tight.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 11 | Cagliari | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 16 | Parma | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonParma have won 4 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Monza 1-1 and lost to Cremonese 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 11D 11L from the last 30 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Cagliari have won 3 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Parma 0-1 and drew with Union Berlin 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 11L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersParma5
Cagliari4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Perenzoni has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Parma have averaged 3.4 corners per match at home; Cagliari 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Parma have generated 0.65 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 27% of them. They put 2.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Parma player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
