Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo
Match Preview
The model favours Jagiellonia to win against Saburtalo, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Jagiellonia heads into this match with a solid recent form, having won three of their last five matches, including two consecutive victories. This suggests a positive momentum as they approach the play-offs. Their ability to secure wins and a draw indicates a level of consistency that will be crucial in this knockout stage. On the other hand, Saburtalo’s form has been mixed, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. While they have shown resilience, particularly with draws, their inability to convert these into consistent wins may hinder their chances against a more in-form Jagiellonia side. They will need to improve their scoring efficiency to compete effectively in this matchup. The model’s output suggests a win probability in favour of Jagiellonia, along with the projected score of 2-1. One caveat to consider is the potential for Saburtalo to exploit any defensive lapses from Jagiellonia, which could lead to a tighter contest than anticipated. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 44% of matches. Saburtalo average 1.4 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
Jagiellonia have been the stronger side, winning 69% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Jagiellonia win as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Jagiellonia clean sheets, in line with their 44% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Jagiellonia are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Jagiellonia vs Saburtalo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.34 | 4.50 | 10.00 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 2.00 | 1.70 | |
| 1.33 | 4.90 | 8.60 | 1.70 | 2.11 | 2.01 | 1.70 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 1.67 | 2.15 | — | — | |
| 1.32 | 5.07 | 8.27 | 1.69 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 1.32 | 4.22 | 6.76 | 1.65 | 2.14 | — | — | |
| 1.30 | 4.60 | 8.00 | — | — | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
| 1.36 | 4.33 | 8.00 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 1.36 | 5.28 | 9.25 | 1.75 | 2.17 | 2.01 | 1.72 | |
| 1.33 | 5.20 | 8.50 | 1.61 | 2.14 | 1.94 | 1.74 | |
| 1.30 | 4.60 | 8.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | 1.95 | 1.75 | |
Betano | 1.39 | 4.50 | 8.00 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.98 | 1.75 |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 4.60 | 8.00 | 1.67 | 2.04 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonJagiellonia have won 8 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Jagiellonia 0-2 and beat Jagiellonia 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 3D 2L from the last 16 games (69% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Saburtalo have won 2 of their last 6 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Larne 0-0 and drew with Slovan Bratislava 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 6D 4L from the last 17 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersJagiellonia
No reported absences
Saburtalo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Jagiellonia have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; Saburtalo 0.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Jagiellonia have generated 1.60 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 69% of them. They put 7.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Jagiellonia player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
