Tammeka vs Kuressaare Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tammeka vs Kuressaare
Match Preview
The model favours Tammeka with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Kuressaare. Tammeka currently sits in 6th place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 26 points from 19 matches. Their season has been a mix of results, with eight wins, two draws, and nine losses. Notably, Tammeka has shown resilience lately, winning three out of their last five matches, which could signal a positive trend as they seek to solidify their mid-table position. On the other hand, Kuressaare is positioned 9th, with 21 points from 22 games. Their performance has been less consistent, registering six wins, three draws, and 13 losses. While they have managed to score the same number of goals as Tammeka, their defensive record is concerning, having conceded 36 goals this season. Their recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses indicates they are struggling to find stability, especially against mid-table teams. The model suggests a win probability of 55% for Tammeka, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage shows that Tammeka has a 65% chance of winning at home. However, if they fail to convert their chances or if Kuressaare finds a way to exploit defensive weaknesses, the outcome could shift. The full methodology of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, reflecting the analysis from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Tammeka have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Tammeka are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tammeka vs Kuressaare| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.80 | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.57 | 2.15 | |
| 1.77 | 3.58 | 3.75 | 1.60 | 2.19 | 1.55 | 2.23 | |
| 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.50 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 1.85 | 3.72 | 3.73 | 1.62 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 1.82 | 3.33 | 3.36 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.70 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 1.80 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.77 | 3.64 | 3.84 | 1.55 | 2.29 | 1.51 | 2.36 | |
| 1.82 | 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.60 | 2.15 | 1.55 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 1.85 | 3.45 | 3.55 | 1.55 | 2.15 | — | — |
Superbet | 1.87 | 3.60 | 3.65 | 1.59 | 2.17 | 1.56 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.20 | 3.25 | 1.52 | 1.85 | 1.45 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Tammeka leads 5-3)In the last ten matches between Tammeka and Kuressaare, Tammeka has won 5 times, Kuressaare has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a fairly competitive rivalry, with several narrow victories; Tammeka's wins include four by a single goal, while Kuressaare's victories feature one narrow win and one by a two-goal margin. There are also two goalless draws, suggesting that when these teams meet, matches can be low-scoring. Kuressaare last triumphed over Tammeka in April 2024, indicating that Tammeka has had the upper hand more recently.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 | Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 | Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTammeka have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tammeka 3-1 and beat Tammeka 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 3D 14L from the last 36 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kuressaare have won 5 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 13. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tammeka 1-0 and beat Flora Tallinn 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 18L from the last 35 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTammeka
No reported absences
Kuressaare
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
G. Osomkov has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by G. Osomkov to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Tammeka average 1.9 goals per match at home; Kuressaare 1.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Tammeka have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 53% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Tammeka player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.