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Tammeka vs Kuressaare Prediction, Tips & Odds

Tammeka vs Kuressaare

MeistriliigaRegular Season - 24
Tammeka
#5 · Meistriliiga
WWLWL
VS
Tamme Stadium, Tartu
Kuressaare
#9 · Meistriliiga
WWLWD

Match Preview

The model favours Tammeka with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Kuressaare. Tammeka currently sits in 6th place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 26 points from 19 matches. Their season has been a mix of results, with eight wins, two draws, and nine losses. Notably, Tammeka has shown resilience lately, winning three out of their last five matches, which could signal a positive trend as they seek to solidify their mid-table position. On the other hand, Kuressaare is positioned 9th, with 21 points from 22 games. Their performance has been less consistent, registering six wins, three draws, and 13 losses. While they have managed to score the same number of goals as Tammeka, their defensive record is concerning, having conceded 36 goals this season. Their recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses indicates they are struggling to find stability, especially against mid-table teams. The model suggests a win probability of 55% for Tammeka, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage shows that Tammeka has a 65% chance of winning at home. However, if they fail to convert their chances or if Kuressaare finds a way to exploit defensive weaknesses, the outcome could shift. The full methodology of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, reflecting the analysis from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.

Head to Head

Last 10 Meetings (Tammeka leads 5-3)
5 Tammeka2 Draw3 Kuressaare
08 May
Tammeka
1-0
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
14 Mar
Kuressaare
3-2
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
Sept 25
Tammeka
0-1
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
Jul 25
Kuressaare
0-2
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
Jun 25
Kuressaare
2-3
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
Apr 25
Tammeka
1-0
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
Oct 24
Tammeka
2-1
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
Jul 24
Kuressaare
0-0
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
May 24
Kuressaare
0-0
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
Apr 24
Tammeka
1-2
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga

In the last ten matches between Tammeka and Kuressaare, Tammeka has won 5 times, Kuressaare has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a fairly competitive rivalry, with several narrow victories; Tammeka's wins include four by a single goal, while Kuressaare's victories feature one narrow win and one by a two-goal margin. There are also two goalless draws, suggesting that when these teams meet, matches can be low-scoring. Kuressaare last triumphed over Tammeka in April 2024, indicating that Tammeka has had the upper hand more recently.

Meistriliiga Standings

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPtsForm
1
FC Levadia Tallinn
22165157183953
WWDWL
2
Kalju Nomme
23135543182544
WWWDW
3
Flora Tallinn
21130842241839
LWLWW
4
Paide
2210663429536
DWLWD
5
Tammeka
209292331-829
WLLWW
6
Vaprus
2283113042-1227
LDLWL
8
Laagri
2381143340-725
LLLWW
9
Kuressaare
2373132538-1324
WWLDL
10
Trans Narva
2352161851-3317
DLWWL

Venue Record

Current season at home / on the road
TammekaHome
5W1D4L
10 playedGF 12 · GA 111.60 pts/game
KuressaareAway
3W1D8L
12 playedGF 13 · GA 220.83 pts/game

Key Statistics

2026 Season
TammekaKuressaare
1.9Goals p.g.1.52
1.45Goals conceded p.g.1.76
35%Clean sheets18%
48%Win rate33%
3.35Avg goals in match3.27
Tammeka
Recent Form

Tammeka have won 8 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Tammeka 19-0 and beat Tammeka 2-1.

Overall, the wider run reads 15W 3D 13L from the last 31 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.

Match Results: TammekaAll competitions
14 Aug
Nõmme United
0-1
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
05 Aug
Rumori Calcio
0-1
Tammeka
Cup
02 Aug
Kalju Nomme
5-1
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
24 Jul
Tammeka
19-0
Zealot Sporting
Cup
11 Jul
Vaprus
5-1
Tammeka
Meistriliiga
05 Jul
Tammeka
2-1
Laagri
Meistriliiga
15
Win
48%
3
Draw
10%
13
Lost
42%
Kuressaare
Recent Form

Kuressaare have won 4 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include beat Kuressaare 0-8 and lost to Paide 1-0.

Overall, the wider run reads 11W 5D 17L from the last 33 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.

Match Results: KuressaareAll competitions
11 Aug
Kristiine JK
0-8
Kuressaare
Cup
07 Aug
Kuressaare
3-2
Laagri
Meistriliiga
02 Aug
Paide
1-0
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
23 Jul
Kuressaare
5-1
Welco X
Cup
19 Jul
Kuressaare
0-0
Kalju Nomme
Meistriliiga
11 Jul
Nõmme United
3-2
Kuressaare
Meistriliiga
11
Win
33%
5
Draw
15%
17
Lost
52%

Lineups

📋

Lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.

Unavailable Players

0 players

Tammeka

No reported absences

Kuressaare

No reported absences

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The Daily Punt Analysis Team

Data-driven football predictions and betting tips

This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.

Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.