Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn
Match Preview
The model favours Flora Tallinn to win against Vaprus, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Flora Tallinn currently sits in third place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 39 points from 20 matches. Their season has been marked by a solid offensive performance, scoring 40 goals, while their defence has been effective, conceding only 21. Despite their recent dip in form, with three losses in their last five matches, they remain a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Vaprus is positioned fifth in the league with 27 points from 21 matches. Their season has been inconsistent, reflected in their negative goal difference of -10. With eight wins and ten losses, Vaprus has struggled to convert opportunities into points, especially during challenging matches. Their recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses indicates they are still searching for consistency. The model gives Flora Tallinn a significant edge, with a win probability that suggests they are the clear favourites in this matchup. However, the unpredictability of football means Vaprus could potentially exploit any defensive lapses from Flora. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results from the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.7% probability.
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side, winning 58% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Flora Tallinn win as the most likely scoreline at 13.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Flora Tallinn are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.51 | 1.42 | 2.49 | 1.51 | 2.32 | |
| 5.00 | 4.33 | 1.47 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 4.73 | 4.43 | 1.56 | 1.44 | 2.66 | — | — | |
| 4.81 | 3.97 | 1.46 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.60 | 4.00 | 1.55 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.53 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 4.80 | 4.20 | 1.53 | 1.42 | 2.49 | 1.51 | 2.36 | |
| 4.60 | 4.10 | 1.57 | 1.40 | 2.60 | 1.45 | 2.45 | |
| 4.60 | 3.90 | 1.57 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 4.55 | 4.00 | 1.57 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 4.65 | 4.20 | 1.56 | 1.46 | 2.42 | 1.56 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.70 | 1.44 | 1.33 | 2.20 | 1.40 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flora Tallinn leads 7-2)In the last ten matches between Vaprus and Flora Tallinn, Flora Tallinn has won 7 times, Vaprus has won 2, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a largely one-sided contest, with Flora Tallinn often securing heavy victories, including three matches ending with a 3-0 scoreline. Vaprus's two wins are narrower, with one match ending in a 1-0 victory. The last time Vaprus triumphed over Flora Tallinn was in March 2025, suggesting a challenging historical trend for Vaprus against this opponent. Overall, Flora Tallinn has maintained a dominant position in this fixture.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 |  Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 7 | Vaprus | 25 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 34 | 46 | -12 | 31 | WDLLD |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVaprus have won 8 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include beat Nõmme United 1-0 and lost to Flora Tallinn 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 19L from the last 38 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Flora Tallinn have won 11 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tammeka 3-1 and beat Vaprus 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 25W 2D 16L from the last 43 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVaprus
No reported absences
Flora Tallinn
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
K. Koppel has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by K. Koppel to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Vaprus average 1.7 goals per match at home; Flora Tallinn 1.8 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Flora Tallinn have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 58% of their matches and averaging 1.8 goals per game. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Flora Tallinn player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.