Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vaprus vs Flora Tallinn
Match Preview
The model favours Flora Tallinn to win against Vaprus, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Flora Tallinn currently sits in third place in the Meistriliiga standings, having accumulated 39 points from 20 matches. Their season has been marked by a solid offensive performance, scoring 40 goals, while their defence has been effective, conceding only 21. Despite their recent dip in form, with three losses in their last five matches, they remain a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Vaprus is positioned fifth in the league with 27 points from 21 matches. Their season has been inconsistent, reflected in their negative goal difference of -10. With eight wins and ten losses, Vaprus has struggled to convert opportunities into points, especially during challenging matches. Their recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses indicates they are still searching for consistency. The model gives Flora Tallinn a significant edge, with a win probability that suggests they are the clear favourites in this matchup. However, the unpredictability of football means Vaprus could potentially exploit any defensive lapses from Flora. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures using expected goals and actual results from the season.
Head to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Flora Tallinn leads 7-2)In the last ten matches between Vaprus and Flora Tallinn, Flora Tallinn has won 7 times, Vaprus has won 2, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a largely one-sided contest, with Flora Tallinn often securing heavy victories, including three matches ending with a 3-0 scoreline. Vaprus's two wins are narrower, with one match ending in a 1-0 victory. The last time Vaprus triumphed over Flora Tallinn was in March 2025, suggesting a challenging historical trend for Vaprus against this opponent. Overall, Flora Tallinn has maintained a dominant position in this fixture.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 22 | 16 | 5 | 1 | 57 | 18 | 39 | 53 | WWDWL |
| 2 |  Kalju Nomme | 23 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 43 | 18 | 25 | 44 | WWWDW |
| 3 | Flora Tallinn | 21 | 13 | 0 | 8 | 42 | 24 | 18 | 39 | LWLWW |
| 4 |  Paide | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 34 | 29 | 5 | 36 | DWLWD |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 20 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 29 | WLLWW |
| 6 | Vaprus | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 27 | LDLWL |
| 8 |  Laagri | 23 | 8 | 1 | 14 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 25 | LLLWW |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 25 | 38 | -13 | 24 | WWLDL |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 23 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 18 | 51 | -33 | 17 | DLWWL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVaprus have won 7 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Vaprus 1-1 and beat Vaprus 5-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 15L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Flora Tallinn have won 10 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Inter Club d'Escaldes 2-0 and lost to The New Saints 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 2D 14L from the last 38 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVaprus
No reported absences
Flora Tallinn
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
