Laagri vs Kalju Nomme Prediction, Tips & Odds
Laagri vs Kalju Nomme
Match Preview
The model favours Kalju Nomme to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in second place, Kalju Nomme has demonstrated strong form throughout the season, recording 12 wins and only 5 losses from 22 matches. Their goal difference of +23 highlights a solid defensive record, having conceded just 17 goals, which is significantly lower than Laagri's -6 goal difference. In contrast, Laagri finds itself in eighth place with a record of 8 wins and 13 losses. While they have shown some improvement recently with three wins in their last five matches, their overall season performance has been inconsistent. With 32 goals scored and 38 conceded, Laagri’s defensive struggles could be a critical factor in this matchup against a more formidable opponent. The model output indicates a win probability of approximately 65% for Kalju Nomme, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one potential caveat is Laagri's recent form, which could provide them with a confidence boost as they aim to upset the higher-ranked team. For a deeper understanding of our prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team outlines our in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Kalju Nomme win as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Kalju Nomme are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Laagri vs Kalju Nomme| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.20 | 4.10 | 1.62 | 1.48 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| 4.60 | 4.05 | 1.55 | 1.44 | 2.42 | 1.52 | 2.30 | |
| 4.60 | 4.20 | 1.53 | 1.44 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 4.71 | 4.16 | 1.60 | 1.48 | 2.54 | — | — | |
| 4.36 | 3.85 | 1.52 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.60 | 3.80 | 1.60 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.57 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 4.66 | 4.05 | 1.57 | 1.44 | 2.42 | 1.52 | 2.34 | |
| 4.80 | 4.20 | 1.52 | 1.38 | 2.65 | 1.45 | 2.43 | |
| 4.33 | 3.80 | 1.62 | 1.50 | 2.45 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 4.40 | 4.00 | 1.57 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 4.90 | 4.25 | 1.52 | 1.44 | 2.47 | 1.56 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.50 | 1.36 | 2.15 | 1.40 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Kalju Nomme leads 8-1)In the last 10 matches between Laagri and Kalju Nomme, Kalju Nomme has won 8 times, with Laagri securing just 1 win and 1 match ending in a draw. This record indicates a dominant performance by Kalju Nomme, who have frequently won by comfortable margins, including three 3-0 victories. The tightest match was a 1-0 win for Kalju Nomme, but overall, Laagri has struggled, with their only victory occurring recently in September 2023. The historical data suggests a clear advantage for Kalju Nomme in this matchup.
Meistriliiga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Levadia Tallinn | 25 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 66 | 20 | 46 | 62 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Flora Tallinn | 27 | 16 | 1 | 10 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 49 | DWWLL |
| 3 | Kalju Nomme | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 47 | 26 | 21 | 44 | LLLLW |
| 4 |  Paide | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 40 | 33 | 7 | 42 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  Tammeka | 25 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 41 | WLWWW |
| 6 | Laagri | 26 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 31 | LWWLL |
| 8 |  Nõmme United | 27 | 9 | 1 | 17 | 44 | 62 | -18 | 28 | WLLLL |
| 9 |  Kuressaare | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 30 | 42 | -12 | 28 | WDLWW |
| 10 |  Trans Narva | 27 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 21 | 62 | -41 | 18 | DLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLaagri have won 13 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Tammeka 0-2 and beat Kalju Nomme 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 4D 16L from the last 37 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kalju Nomme have won 11 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Kalju Nomme 2-1 and lost to Trans Narva 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 9D 12L from the last 40 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLaagri
No reported absences
Kalju Nomme
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
K. Kaivoja has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by K. Kaivoja to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Laagri average 1.9 goals per match at home; Kalju Nomme 2.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Kalju Nomme have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 48% of their matches and averaging 2.0 goals per game. Kalju Nomme player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.