Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha
Match Preview
The model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah to win against Abha, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Al-Ahli Jeddah starts the season in 6th position, but their recent form shows a need for improvement, with two draws and three losses in their last five matches. Despite this, they bring a stronger historical performance into the new season, which could give them an edge. Abha sits just above Al-Ahli Jeddah in 5th place, but they come into this match with a concerning form of one draw and four losses in their last five outings. This lack of momentum could hinder their chances against a team that, despite its recent struggles, has shown more resilience in key moments. According to the model, Al-Ahli Jeddah has a win probability of around 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is that, given both teams are starting the season, the match dynamics could lead to unexpected results, especially if either side struggles to find their rhythm. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have been the stronger side, winning 66% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah win as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Al-Ahli Jeddah clean sheets, in line with their 34% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Al-Ahli Jeddah are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Abha| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.20 | 6.25 | 13.00 | 1.42 | 2.85 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 1.16 | 6.35 | 11.25 | 1.35 | 2.74 | 1.85 | 1.81 | |
| 1.20 | 6.50 | 13.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | — | — | |
| 1.20 | 7.19 | 9.46 | 1.37 | 2.92 | — | — | |
| 1.18 | 6.00 | 10.00 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.85 | |
| 1.22 | 5.50 | 9.00 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.18 | 7.19 | 12.40 | 1.35 | 2.74 | 1.85 | 1.84 | |
| 1.23 | 5.60 | 9.50 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.78 | 1.91 | |
| 1.18 | 6.00 | 10.00 | 1.36 | 2.80 | 1.80 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 1.24 | 6.50 | 11.25 | 1.44 | 2.90 | 1.91 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Al-Ahli Jeddah leads 4-3)Al-Ahli Jeddah hold the edge in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 9 meetings with 2 draws and 3 Abha wins. The record points to a tie Al-Ahli Jeddah have controlled for years, though the draws show Abha have at times kept it tight.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Nassr | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Al-Ettifaq | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Al-Hazm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  NEOM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 7 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12 | Abha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 16 |  Al Riyadh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 17 |  Al Shabab | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 18 |  Al-Fateh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl-Ahli Jeddah have won 11 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-1 and lost to Al-Ahli Jeddah 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 5D 5L from the last 29 games (66% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Abha have won 3 of their last 8 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Abha 0-0 and drew with Rizespor 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 2D 5L from the last 13 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl-Ahli Jeddah
No reported absences
Abha
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al-Ahli Jeddah have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Abha 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al-Ahli Jeddah have generated 2.11 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 66% of them. They put 6.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al-Ahli Jeddah player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
