Ajax vs Excelsior Prediction, Tips & Odds
Ajax vs Excelsior
Match Preview
The model favours Ajax to win against Excelsior, predicting a scoreline of 2-1. Ajax currently sits in sixth place in the Eredivisie, with a record of two wins, one draw, and one loss from their first four matches. They have scored nine goals and conceded five, demonstrating a solid goal difference of four. Despite a mixed start to the season, Ajax has shown resilience, securing three wins in their last five matches. Excelsior, on the other hand, is just ahead in fifth place with three wins and one loss, accumulating nine points. They have been in impressive form, scoring ten goals while conceding only three, which gives them a goal difference of seven. Their recent performance includes four wins in their last five matches, indicating a strong start to the season. However, the team will need to maintain this level against a historically strong opponent like Ajax. The model gives Ajax a win probability of around 55%, while Excelsior's chances stand at approximately 25%. The key market percentage indicates a likelihood of at least two goals being scored in the match. One caveat for Ajax is the potential for defensive lapses, as they have conceded five goals already this season. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.0% probability.
Ajax have been the stronger side, winning 49% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Ajax win as the most likely scoreline at 11.0% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Ajax clean sheets, in line with their 34% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Ajax are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Ajax vs Excelsior| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.20 | 6.90 | 10.75 | 1.23 | 3.42 | 1.62 | 2.13 | |
| 1.22 | 6.50 | 9.50 | 1.25 | 3.80 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 1.21 | 7.64 | 11.24 | 1.27 | 3.80 | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 6.50 | 9.50 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 1.22 | 7.00 | 11.00 | 1.28 | 3.60 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.21 | 7.50 | 11.70 | 1.23 | 3.42 | 1.62 | 2.16 | |
Betano | 1.25 | 7.40 | 11.25 | 1.26 | 3.95 | 1.57 | 2.32 |
BetVictor | 1.18 | 7.00 | 11.50 | 1.25 | 3.60 | 1.60 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Ajax leads 6-1)In the last 10 meetings between Ajax and Excelsior, Ajax has won 6 times, Excelsior has won once, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a generally dominant performance by Ajax, with notable heavy wins of 7-1 and 6-2, suggesting that when Ajax prevails, they often do so decisively. Excelsior's sole victory came in November 2025, marking a significant gap since their last win against Ajax. The matches have also featured several draws, often at 2-2, indicating some competitive encounters, though Ajax's overall superiority is clear in this head-to-head record.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 | Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Twente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 8 | Ajax | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 7 | LWDW |
| 16 |  Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAjax have won 10 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to PSV Eindhoven 1-3 and beat FC Sion 5-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 11D 7L from the last 35 games (49% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Excelsior have won 8 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Excelsior 0-3 and beat De Graafschap 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 7L from the last 25 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAjax4-3-3Confirmed
Excelsior4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAjax
No reported absences
Excelsior
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Jannick van der Laan has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Jannick van der Laan to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Ajax have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; Excelsior 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Ajax have generated 1.75 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 49% of them. They put 8.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Ajax player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
