AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar Prediction, Tips & Odds
AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar
Match Preview
The model favours AZ Alkmaar to secure a victory against Telstar, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. As the current league leaders, AZ Alkmaar has made an impressive start to the season, winning all five of their matches. With 16 goals scored and only 5 conceded, their goal difference of +11 illustrates their dominance, showcasing both a potent attack and a solid defense. On the other hand, Telstar finds themselves in 13th place, having played four matches with just one win, one draw, and two losses. Their season has been challenging, with a goal tally of only 5 while conceding 10, resulting in a negative goal difference of -5. This stark contrast in form and standings suggests that they will struggle against a high-flying AZ Alkmaar side. According to the model, AZ Alkmaar has a strong win probability, supported by their recent form of five consecutive victories. However, one caveat to consider is that unexpected events, such as key player injuries or red cards, could significantly impact the match outcome. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.1% probability.
AZ Alkmaar have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 AZ Alkmaar win as the most likely scoreline at 11.1% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature AZ Alkmaar clean sheets, in line with their 27% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. AZ Alkmaar are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
AZ Alkmaar vs Telstar| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.22 | 6.45 | 9.90 | 1.25 | 3.28 | 1.61 | 2.15 | |
| 1.20 | 6.50 | 10.50 | 1.29 | 3.80 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 1.25 | 6.98 | 9.68 | 1.30 | 3.65 | — | — | |
| 1.23 | 5.99 | 8.10 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 6.00 | 9.50 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.27 | 6.00 | 11.00 | 1.30 | 3.50 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.24 | 6.98 | 10.70 | 1.25 | 3.28 | 1.61 | 2.18 | |
Betano | 1.28 | 6.50 | 11.25 | 1.32 | 3.45 | 1.60 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 1.22 | 6.50 | 10.50 | 1.25 | 3.60 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (AZ Alkmaar leads 3-0)In the last three encounters, AZ Alkmaar has won all three matches against Telstar, with a record of 3 wins and 0 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive edge for AZ Alkmaar, as both of their victories were by narrow margins of 2-1, while they also secured a 1-0 win in a league match. This suggests that while AZ Alkmaar has consistently come out on top, the matches have not been one-sided, maintaining a level of competitiveness. Telstar has not managed to win in this fixture since the sample began, highlighting their struggles against AZ Alkmaar in recent meetings.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Excelsior | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 | DWWLW |
| 5 |  Twente | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 14 | Telstar | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LDLLW |
| 16 |  Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAZ Alkmaar have won 13 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat AZ Alkmaar 5-2 and beat AZ Alkmaar 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 8D 7L from the last 33 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Telstar have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 and beat De Graafschap 3-6.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 5D 11L from the last 24 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAZ Alkmaar4-2-3-1Confirmed
Telstar3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAZ Alkmaar
No reported absences
Telstar
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Sander van der Eijk has averaged 9.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
AZ Alkmaar have averaged 4.9 corners per match at home; Telstar 3.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AZ Alkmaar have generated 2.11 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 55% of them. They put 6.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AZ Alkmaar player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
